Miguel da Fonseca

@Sheldon08638921 Yes, if you’re blind as a bat to context and market location.

$GLD $GDX This hammer on the weekly is as bullish as it can get after an abc pullback. The bottom is in. We rally hard next week. ;)

@JeremyWS The usual.

Impressively poor analysis from Robin here… couldn’t be more wrong if he tried! Real rates have most definitely risen (even his chart shows they’ve gone up!!).. In fwd space they’ve risen by a meaningful amount in a short time.

@dampedspring Released 11/16/2025, not 11/16/2026.

Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is mostly unchanged since writing the "A Hamburger Today"DSR 11/17/26 (available in comments) The major themes remain in place 1. There is a tremendous overhang of issuance in IPO markets, corporate debt markets, and government deficit funding markets. Share repurchases demand is falling. 2. Asset prices particularly bond steepness and risk premium are inadequate to generate the sort of returns to have commercial banks create money which means all issuance mentioned above will compete with existing private sector assets to create the necessary credit without banks creating money. 3. At the same time as supply of assets is increasing without money creation consumers are NOT seeing wage growth anymore to continue to spend and have maintained consumption at elevated levels by dissaving. That dissaving adds to the supply that those with cash can choose from to buy 4. Spending on AI despite its increasingly optimistic outlook for future impact is no longer being tolerated by investors who are asking when those spending on chips and data centers will generate return from those spending on AI models. Those spending on AI models (real disrupted businesses and real consumers) have yet to cut jobs much Prior to the war that led us to the idea that assets in general had to reprice cheaper (risk premium expansion) that has been playing out lately but seems less to do with the above and more to do with the war but it's likely that under the hood the damage of the above has begun to seep into markets and the economy. Prior to the war the RISK to my thesis was 1. Significant sustained reversal on tariffs which would be pro growth and favor equities over bonds 2. AI both generating ROI AND not hitting jobs much 3. QRA and FED manipulation to depress risk premiums 4. Much more rate cuts done by a Trump controlled fed 5. While I couldn't see how Congress could do fiscal stimulus particularly post scotus tariff revenue hit another debt busting tax cut could make me wrong What's changed since the war. 1. Consumption is further challenged by likely elevated energy prices for the next year AND by negative wealth effect which discourages dissaving 2. Ignoring what CB's will do markets have increased short term rates which is a tightening 3. Central banks have broadly and by bank pivoted from dovish to pause or pause to hike (hawkish pivot) sensibly waiting to see the real slowdown while obviously immediately seeing the inflation spike 4. More issuance and asset selling due to the literal waste of setting money on fire due to war has been piled on the already massive pile of asset overhang 5. Despite all manner of negative growth shocks I saw and now see even more bond yields have risen and risk premiums have expanded which is an almost certain to guarantee a marked real slowdown. 6. The mechanics of a dollar squeeze are clear to most and dollar has bounced and ROW assets are being puked after a massive move BUT the conditions for the dollar have perhaps NEVER been worse and the secular get out trade is once again supported by cheaper risk parity in ROW which if and when hostilities tame will snap back with a vengeance. Given my synthesis, now we look to what's priced in. Risk premiums are medium wider but not wide. Adjacent to risk premium markets like asset vols, correlations, swap spreads and credit spreads are medium wider but NOT wide From a pure synthesis of all these things long term treasuries are still NOT cheap enough to be max levered long in both alpha and beta BUT they are far more interesting than equities. My synthesis above is clearly STILL bearish growth, margins, and equities. The above is bearish all but cash but most bearish equities. It is also extremely bearish USD and by definition somewhat bullish gold.

@jakebrowatzke @Ross__Hendricks But sure, that's just like the S&P being down 9%.

The dot com bubble didn't even reach a 50% pullback. It fell shy. Neither did 1973. But sure, nearly a 50% pullbacks does happen from time to time and will happen again in our lifetimes, no doubt. The stocks I own are already down 75%-85% with nothing but growing revenue and profit. Nearly all are at their lowest valuation multiples ever. I'm not worried about them "crashing" from here.

As we're in the midst of the AI revolution and have a never before seen this level of tailwinds to earnings and productivity simultaneously, I'd say a recession is now being fully priced into the market today.

@Ross__Hendricks Due to food shortages (supply chain bottlenecks), not enough ingredients arrived to make a proper TACO.

Saturday edition of "Peace talks going very well"

@dambrose_k @BlazeBrandMan @FuentesUpdates And the price of oil isn’t set by the US market. Although it might come as a surprise to people who think the US is the world.

@BlazeBrandMan @FuentesUpdates Before the war, gas in Dallas was $2.15 a gallon. Now it's $3.84. I don't know how math works on your planet, but gas has gone up for the average American.

“The Pentagon is lying to us. Iran hit the Gerald Ford and took it out of commission. They told us there was a fire in the laundry room.” - Nick Fuentes

@BlazeBrandMan @dambrose_k @FuentesUpdates “What’s the price of gas?”… Maybe if you didn’t open your mouth you wouldn’t embarrass yourself.

What’s the price of gas? Oh it’s literally lower than before the war. Who gives shit about the straight? Oh China? Russia? 5d . Dog. Yeah we want it closed. It’s open when we want it open. IE shooting at Chinese ships and letting others through. The regime is ours no matter the propaganda. Send all the videos and shoot all the drones and bottle rockets you want. We already won. Russia and China are hurting

@NickRicci5 @WarMonitor3 Is that what your rapist president wants you to say?

@WarMonitor3 We should remove all troops from Europe and let them defend themselves

Trump is considering withdrawing US troops from Germany-Telegraph Wow…

@heresyfinancial Lol, sure, the conditions that are making it cheap don’t matter at all, it’s just sentiment at extremes… Good luck with that. Make sure you buy too, I want a bounce.

Tech is cheap right now Valuations are not as insane as many people like to claim

@StonkChris Dumb take. This isn’t a sports game where your team, the bulls are the good guys and the others are the bad guys. You assess the situation and position accordingly. People are in markets to make money, not for charity.

If you genuinely think this is going to happen, you’re basically betting against America. And betting on doomerism is a great way to guarantee your own downfall long before anything else falls.

@HumbleStudent Or maybe you should have done your homework. x.com/PeterBerezinBC…

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Somebody is very wrong. $SPX skidding but forward 12m EPS is on a tear.

@DrJStrategy I'm just sorry for your clients.

For the record Ignore the noise: this is NOT the 1970s and Trump is NOT launching Iraq 2.0. High‑frequency data show no demand destruction: Americans are still spending, flying and filling hotels. Inflation expectations are well anchored. The “Iran shock” is a short term volatility trade, not a new regime. The real story is unchanged: Supply Side Policy regime shift, AI capex, an industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill are far more powerful than a temporary oil spike. Markets are mispricing a squall as a superstorm. Ignore the noise. Ignore the Doomers. Have a nice day.

@Andrewpleclaire @OrlaCarlinn @BRICSinfo Little spineless worms with no mind of their own, just sucking up to that disgusting criminal tub of lard.

@OrlaCarlinn @BRICSinfo You people don’t believe in anything lmao your entire personality and belief system is whatever Trump says and does

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US military prepares for potential two-month long ground operation in Iran, WaPo reports.

@OrlaCarlinn @BRICSinfo Do you make an effort to be stupid or does it come naturally to you?

President Trump is right to prepare the US military for a decisive two-month ground operation in Iran if needed. Iran’s barbaric regime started this they fund Hamas & Hezbollah, launched October 7, chant Death to America & Israel, race for nuclear weapons they can’t be trusted with, and now their IRGC terrorists openly call American and Israeli universities legitimate targets to murder innocent students. Enough is enough. Trump’s strong leadership is protecting innocent lives on both sides by finally confronting the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism instead of appeasing it like past weak administrations did. A firm operation to dismantle their nuclear program, missile sites, and terror infrastructure will save far more lives in the long run than letting this evil regime continue threatening the free world. Iran provoked this for decades. Now they face real consequences. Who else stands with Trump and America’s strength against Iranian terrorism? Or are you still making excuses for the mullahs?

@warinsight95 @financialjuice "For the record, the president of the USA is now simultaneously claiming that he has won the war, is currently winning the war, needs help to win the war, and needs no help to win the war. All to destroy the nuclear program he claims to have already destroyed last year." ❤️

@financialjuice i thought the no new wars president already won the war convincingly in the first day or was that just another one of his lies a ground invasion is a logistical nightmare irans boarder is just mountains so he’ll be risking american troops lives for israel

⚠ BREAKING: Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran - Washington Post

@follis_ Plenty of time to go red too.

"The $BTC monthly candle is green, bears are screwed" The candle:

@Ross__Hendricks @FinanceJack44 They DCA all the way to the limit of their risk tolerance and then give up and sell it all at the bottom. Best strategy there is!..

@FinanceJack44 I prefer BCA - bagholder cost averaging

What they don’t tell you: sometimes the declines last a decade and come with 50% losses off the peak I can guarantee you no one who bought the top in 1973 or 2000 would have been calmed by the knowledge that they would eventually get back to even if they could just sit, nursing losses for a decade

@W9matador @TrumpTruthOnX King of shit.

Watch Mark Levin interview of Brilliant Marc Thiessen tonight at 8:00 P.M., on FoxNews. Will discuss the importance of hitting Iran, HARD!!! President DJT (TS: 28 Mar 17:46 ET)​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍

@TexasOncologist @TMTLongShort @WarrenPies Yes, that seems obvious to most people, and I'm not disagreeing, but I wouldn't go as far as calling it the reason for taking the chance.

@SafeGamble @TMTLongShort @WarrenPies I think it's as simple as Venezuela was so easy he/they thought Iran would be as well A quick coup and deal with the survivor of your choosing It clearly was NOT

The admin is incentivized to take a particular set of steps not to lose midterms. This isn’t rolling of the dice. The people in charge of the most powerful economy on earth don’t want to lose midterms and have a lot to lose if they do. Polling isnt predictive this early on and polymarket is wrong. Bribes and price controls are coming.

@TMTLongShort @TexasOncologist @WarrenPies It seems to me that they gambled on it as if this was a casino. "I think so, Sir, I think we can pull it off. We have the best x, the best y, the best z, etc. I think it will work". And then Trump, who's not an expert (on anything but BS, really), gave the ok to the guy in charge

But this was such an obvious outcome that you’d have to be retarded going into it without a plan … and from where I sit that plan is either complete certainty you can unblock the strait within a short period of time (low prob, hard to forecast) or you decouple American gas prices from global energy market rates (high prob, easy to engineer if you have tolerance for bucking norms and breaking some other stuff that are less critical for midterms even if objectively bad)