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$QS first came across my feed in 2021 as a pure EV moonshot.
Now it’s: EVs + AI data centers + defense energy systems. Same battery tech(?). But very new demand stack (aka TAM increased bigly)
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Highly Regarded Star 🪨
357 posts
Highly Regarded Star 🪨
@SpongeQuant
Starfish on @X | NYC M&A | $RDDT $BABA $QS Long strong businesses, occasionally buy degenerate calls. Building a Fintwit win-rate tracker with unemployed SWEs
Public Win-Rate Tracker 👉 加入时间 Ocak 2023
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@Defiantclient2 still a bit technical for me but very helpful summary. thanks kevin
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@SpongeQuant Here’s my one post summary on $QS to help you out
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2
$QS: My one post summary of @QuantumScapeCo 👇 PROVEN TECHNOLOGY + Two major innovations: anodeless architecture (at manufacturing) and proprietary solid ceramic separator + Cathode agnostic + The only NO-COMPROMISE solid state battery solution which makes no sacrifices on the 5 main factors of battery design: Energy, Fast Charge, Life, Safety, and Cost + QSE-5: ~5 Ah cell with energy density 844 Wh/L capable of <15-min fast charge (10 to 80% State of Charge) + A0 Sample tested by Volkswagen's PowerCo for >95% energy retention at >1,000 full cycle equivalents + Safety: Solid-state ceramic separator is nonflammable and noncombustible + Cost (at scale): Eliminates anode host material and related manufacturing costs. This removes dependency on China-dominated graphite anode supply chain. + Operates at low pressure of <3.4 atm. No external pressure system required! + Implemented QSE-5 battery cells into a modified Ducati V21L race motorcycle in September 2025 + Cobra process shrunk ceramic baking process from many hours down to several minutes + Eagle Line, QS's pilot production line, has begun producing initial volumes of QSE-5 cells + 18-month cycles expected for new iterations of technology PARTNERSHIPS + Non-exclusive licensing agreement for up to 85 GWh with Volkswagen Group's battery subsidiary: PowerCo, including $130M of milestone payments + $130M of royalty prepayments + Joint Development Agreements with 2x Top 10 (by revenue) Global Automotive OEMs + Successfully completed technology evaluation phase with another Top 10 Global Automotive OEM, which will lead into another JDA + Total 4 out of the Top 10 Global Automotive OEMs will have a JDA or more advanced, with QS + Capital-light licensing agreement is a template for for all JDAs + OEM partners range from Japan, North America, and Europe + Ecosystem Partners: Murata in Japan and Corning in the US. Collaborations to pursue high-volume manufacturing of ceramic separators for QS’s solid-state battery technology + Agreements with other automotive OEMs: leading OEMs by global revenue, established global luxury OEM, premium performance OEM, and pure-play EV OEM + Agreements in other sectors: consumer electronics, stationary storage NON-EV APPLICATIONS + Corning: Consumer electronics, medical devices, military applications, and grid storage applications + AI data centers are transitioning to 800V DC designs and adopting power systems architecture and technology from the EV industry. A "natural fit for our no-compromise solid state battery". + Defense sector: "In addition, we have seen strong customer interest in our battery technology from global players in the military, aerospace and government sectors. Our battery technology unlocks step-change improvements to both energy density and power simultaneously; combined with the superior safety of our solid-state design, this is a highly attractive combination for these advanced applications. Our anode-free architecture also has supply-chain benefits. Conventional lithium-ion batteries require graphite that is almost exclusively sourced from China. In contrast, our battery design is graphite-free, eliminating a major pain point for defense applications." CASH/LIQUIDITY + Ended Q1 2026 with $904.7M + Cash runway plus expected customer billings are anticipated to be sufficient to the end of 2029 2026 ROADMAP + Demonstrate scalable production with the Eagle Line + Advance automotive commercialization + Expand into new high-value markets + Go beyond QSE-5
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Spent some time trying to understand the product behind $QS. i'm definitely better off than i was 24 hours ago, but battery chemistry quickly turns into ceramic separators, lithium-metal interfaces, dendrite formation, coulombic efficiency, and a bunch of phd-level science.
not going to pretend i'm a battery expert (im a degen finance bro starfish who trades based on vibez) and too be honestly im not sure it increased time to understand it would help in my conviction.
i'll keep investing based on the qualitative and quantitative reasons the company is compelling. that's the part (believe) i actually understand
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@AdamMancini4 But then how do I feed my green candle addiction
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The biggest game changer for me was realizing the most powerful edge is sitting on hands. Its the unplanned, impulse trades that don't correlate to any setup that generate losses. I plan exactly where I am going to enter & have 1 setup that I look for there. Otherwise, no trading
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I have conviction but I dont plan to be a $BABA bag holder.
Set a standard for when you sell. If we go below / above X price, cut losses / take profits. Stick to the plan. For be thats $BABA at 123, if it dips below amd reclaims that price… you can always come back in.
Taking a loss stings but ill never get married to a single ticker when there’s and infinite number of opportunities everyday.
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@AgoraAlerts @StockSavvyShay I’m watching BABA close. I agree but man it’s been hard to watch everything else go during the wait.
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MY 3 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES RIGHT NOW
1. $MELI | MercadoLibre
MercadoLibre is the cleanest example of a stock that looks broken because the market wanted near-term EBIT while the business is clearly on fire underneath. Revenue grew 49% YoY to $8.8B, commerce grew 47%, fintech grew 51%, GMV grew 42% and Brazil items sold accelerated 56% yet the stock sold off because margins compressed as management chose to reinvest into free shipping, logistics, credit cards, 1P commerce and marketing instead of managing the quarter for the market.
I think the market is trying to paint MercadoLibre as this mature retailer trying to squeeze out another 50 bps of margin but really it's still building the $AMZN + $PYPL + $XYZ logistics layer for LatAm in a region where e-commerce, digital payments, credit, ads and primary banking adoption are still years behind the U.S.
2. $SOFI | SoFi
SoFi is a stock that looks broken because the market wanted the usual beat-and-raise while the business still delivered numbers that most fintechs would kill for. Revenue grew 41% YoY to $1.1B, EBITDA grew 62%, members grew 35% to 14.7M and loan originations grew 68% to $12.2B but the stock sold off because management only reiterated guidance, rate cut expectations have disappeared and the Tech Platform (Galileo) segment remains weak from the Chime offboarding.
My thesis is that SoFi is still building the all-in-one digital finance platform for the next generation. The core flywheel is intact because members are growing, deposits are scaling, lending demand remains strong and ~45% of new products are coming from existing members.
3. $META | Meta Platforms
Meta is a stock the market keeps treating like an AI capex problem while the actual business is becoming one of the clearest AI monetization engines in the world. Revenue grew 33% YoY to $56B, ad impressions grew 19%, ad pricing grew 12% and Q2 guidance came in stronger than expected but the stock sold off because Meta raised capex guidance by $10B and market immediately went back to the fear that Zuckerberg is overspending before the payoff shows up.
I think the payoff is already showing up since AI is improving Reels ranking, video engagement, ad targeting, conversion quality, business messaging and creative performance across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Reels. Meta is using AI to make the highest-margin advertising machine on the internet more relevant, more efficient and more valuable.
The common thread across all three is that the market is punishing near-term discomfort while the underlying businesses are getting stronger which is the exact kind of mismatch I like buying.
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I just ordered bubble tea from a 7-10 year old who provided better customer service than any barista at Starbucks I've ever been to. New Yorkers are built different and the American dream is not dead.
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Maybe but Huffman has consistently framed $RDDT as a community driven platform and part of the reason for IPOing was broader participation in ownership
I think that mindset and his voting control makes a near term acquistion feel unlikely imo.
$RDDT investors will do just fine wo a buyout anyways
Ryan@Eskimosby
At $27B, it’s more likely $RDDT gets bought out by a competitor or an AI company than is replaced by a $MeTA clone, what are we doing?
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the most bullish thing in the entire $QS Q1 investor letter wasn't a battery metric. it was a customer saying "we tested you against the competition and want to keep going."
ir.quantumscape.com/static-files/6…
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@aleabitoreddit $RDDT (human data + growth), $BABA (china + AI) $QS
(expanding TAM into datacenter and defense)
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@cyberprince_rwo probably one of the nordic countries but I cant see myself ever leaving the Bikini Bottom (NYC)
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@Mr_Derivatives We dont sacrifice lambs in NY, we sacrifice coyotes
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As a lifelong Knicks fan, I’m gonna bet on the Spurs to win the NBA Finals.
Why?
INVERSE HEISENBERG ACTIVATED.
You’re welcome New York.
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@Mr_Derivatives Wemby and Castle are the only lambs that will be sacrificed in the Garden on Wednesday
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@Tim_Denning I climbed it pretty quick. Tons of work, stress, hours. Saw my boss and the boss above her and both were miserable. One had a heart attack. I quit within months of that. Not worth it. It all worked out. 🫠
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One of the hardest pills to swallow is being in your 40s and realizing the decades you spent climbing the corporate ladder were a waste.
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Goldman Sachs raises its SK Hynix operating profit forecasts:
2026: KRW 261tn ($173.1bn) → KRW 271tn ($179.8bn)
2027: KRW 330tn ($218.9bn) → KRW 401tn ($266.0bn)
2028: KRW 366tn ($242.8bn) → KRW 454tn ($301.2bn)
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@SpongeQuant 135kg
100kg
150kg
Probably real strength is higher for squats and deadlift but I don’t want to risk injuries, and for bench it’s a mechanical/form issue I think
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More deadlift slander but I’ve been deadlifting for years and my physique is the best it’s ever been
Functionally I feel great as well
Sure there are better exercises like the one shown, or hamstring curls, but nothing can compare 1:1
Alexander@alexanderrX_
my biggest regret in life is deadlifting. i herniated a disc pulling 200kg. i had done it before, but that day felt off and i still went for it like an idiot. by 21, i was basically crippled. 8 years of rehab later and i’m maybe back to 40% of the back strength i had before. if you deadlift, leave your ego at the door. low weight, more volume, clean reps. once you mess your back up, there is no glory. just regret.
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@bullwallstreet2 @Glitch_Trades Looks like free money. I have $RBLX July calls too
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@jaspapii @aleabitoreddit Doesn't matter. Just hold on to your balls until we go to $500 $AAOI
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Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd!
It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper.
Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics.
Ty KLismont for the photo.
Ellen Vermorgen@elvermo
🙏my aim is true :- ) to inform small-scale investors as clearly, objectively & fairly as possible
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@_king142 @aleabitoreddit Its Griffith, antagonist of one the greatest piece of fiction (Berserk)
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@aleabitoreddit That’s pretty cool. By the way, what’s the story behind the photo?
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@TOLDYA273 @bishbashbosg $QS to $44 based on fibs, still coming up with the ball park based on TAM expansion
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Chat i just spent the last ~12 hours going down a $QS rabbit hole after 70 hours of excel modeling + PPT grinding . Watched as much publicly available content I could find and argued with GPT 4o the whole way through
I’m not gonna lie… I really like this company
writing up my full thesis now
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