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Krokodil Capital
Krokodil Capital@Krokodil_V·
Bull case, I think $SOLS can clear $200 just off RAS. - Nuclear: assume greenfield doubles capacity, ASP in ~$60s, EBITDA margins ~38% (Orano levels). AES clears $11B EV at 22x EV/EBITDA ($CCJ and $LEU type multiples). Is there demand for this conversion? Per DOE estimates for nuclear ("the US would need access to 70K to 95K MT per year of UF6"). Again noting $SOLS atm does 9-10K MTU (can go up to 15K MTU) and they are the sole US source. - Data center 2 phase cooling - $CC had previously sized the fluid as a $1.5B to $3B TAM 2 years ago; $SOLS / $CC at 50% share of this = $8.5B EV at 15x. CCing smarter guys for their views too @EndThePods @CapstackCapital @leveraged_cat @MNTonX
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Jester@JesterTrades

@Krokodil_V Whats your bullish target if 150$ is estimated conservatively? "Upside can come from renewal of UF6 LTAs at higher prices around 2030 + additional facilities + recovery in refrigerants / housing + data center direct 2-phase cooling opportunity" If those cases happen?

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Rightsized CapStack Capital
Rightsized CapStack Capital@CapstackCapital·
To piggyback off of @EndThePods a lil, I am still running the numbers as well and think directionally you are not wrong. Based on my existing knowledge and the DD I did last week and weekend on $SOLS, there could be significant upside. The 2-phase cooling specifically is a big factor w/ the nuclear sort of acting like a call option imo. The valuation is pretty favorable setup for a nice R/R tradeoff, alone just on a re-rate. But, longer-term I view this sort of like how I view $CR, which is a long-term compounder of capital. S/O to @DurableCreators bc I think SOLS will fit into his MO as well. I think both companies are modern-day $DHR -esque. They will generate significant value over long periods of time and computing IC, but in modern-end markets I/ substantial tailwinds (A&D and semiconductors/data centers/AI, nuclear, etc.). I think sometimes actual investors, we need to take a step back from the chaos and brouhaha of the markets and remind themselves of a what a good company actually looks like. One that generates good and GROWING ROIIC that you believe you can reasonably forecast out with a solid balance sheet, reputable management team. I think SOLS checks those boxes and what makes it even more tantalizing is the current valuation it trades at. You are essentially getting a great business at a really fair valuation that is ripe for FinTwit to go ham on, but with the intention to hold LT bc the MOIC will be extraordinary. There are real sustainable tailwinds across multiple facets of the business that will help it weather storms and most likely, it’ll spin of some of the segments as well and shareholders will receive ownership in those when spun out. I think there is a lot to love about SOLS and am trying to free up capital to make a splashy purchase.
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Rightsized CapStack Capital
Rightsized CapStack Capital@CapstackCapital·
Lastly, I just want to say, it’s really cool and humbling to be asked for my thoughts. But what’s even more awesome is being part of the FinTwit community and understanding people’s investing styles to the point that I was comfortable enough and knew enough to tag @DurableCreators maybe give him in idea as well and loop him in. It’s such a great community of true investors we have on here!
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Durable Value Creators
Durable Value Creators@DurableCreators·
@CapstackCapital @Krokodil_V @EndThePods Appreciate the tag. I've actually never looked at SOLS but you make a number of good points and it is the type of business that interests me. Intriguing end market exposure with secular tailwinds, key input specialty materials for customers. I'll have to take a deeper look.
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