bilbo

81 posts

bilbo

bilbo

@Bilbobag12341

انضم Nisan 2024
67 يتبع15 المتابعون
PandaTrades
PandaTrades@SenorPandaHere·
You think you are late until you realise we are early Zoom out, it can take as little as 12 weeks and hyperliquid:native could be trading $300+
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@Globalflows If options are available on instruments other than PURR, does that change your gamma squeeze thesis?
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Capital Flows
Capital Flows@Globalflows·
My two largest positions are $PURR AND $ORCL nothing has changed in my thesis for both. I will break them down again in the livestream today. Links below
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Capital Flows
Capital Flows@Globalflows·
@Will3_Wonka cause the squeeze can have way more force than the ATM issuance
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@pangb0y Well, sounds like thats a better comp then, hyperliquid to infinity 🤣
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pangboy.hl
pangboy.hl@pangb0y·
@Bilbobag12341 Im comparing marketcap to other companies marketcap robinhood /coinbase technically have unlimited FDV
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pangboy.hl
pangboy.hl@pangb0y·
Take profit target for hyperliquid:native ? $450 Target is based on Hyperliquid hitting $100B marketcap, putting it to other industry standards such as Robinhood Stack more until then
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@pangb0y But if you are comparing to other companies, shouldn’t you use FDV? I agree the Mc is more relevant when discussing market dynamics/flows, but valuation seems like a different metric.
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pangboy.hl
pangboy.hl@pangb0y·
@Bilbobag12341 tokens arent being emitted very fast MC is much more accurate representation of the project FDV is more important when the VCs and team unlock and dump 100% of supply in 4 years
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@Globalflows How is something with infinite ATM going to gamma squeeze)
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Capital Flows
Capital Flows@Globalflows·
Nothing has changed in my view on Hyperliquid I reject these uninformed opinions based on first-order thinking that say Hyperliquid doesn't have a moat Every major IPO is getting priced on Hyperliquid and they keep printing cash flow. Now, $PURR holds 10% of the Hyperliquid float which is why $PURR is my largest position YOU GET PAID TO HOLD RISK
Capital Flows tweet media
Capital Flows@Globalflows

I want to explain the most misunderstood factor for Hyperliquid. If what I lay out is going to happen, the price will easily go to $350 this year. 🧵 Right now, everyone is overly fixated on the launch of the ETFs. The Hyperliquid ETFs are a drop in the bucket for the wall of capital that is going to hit the market This is very straightforward if you understand global interest rates, fx, and the supply of money in the system. Most people have ZERO clue about how these markets function because they have never traded G7 rates. People think they understand liquidity because they traded Bitcoin during a dollar devaluation narrative but when asked about the most important input into macro liquidity, interest rates, they have no clue. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a view on macro liquidity and money in the system without understanding interest rates. These are two sides to the same coin. Let me lay out this thesis very simply: 👇 Interest rates are all about the price you pay for money in the system. FX markets are the flip side of the coin, which is denominated the actual currency you are borrowing relative to other currencies and their respective interest rates. Why does this matter for Hyperliquid? Because the largest markets in the world are all about interest rates and FX. Bitcoin and crypto are a drop in the bucket for large players who are managing massive balance sheets. If Hyperliquid can provide enough value via liquidity and low-cost leverage, then the largest players in the world will start moving more capital onto the platform to transact in the most important markets, interest rates, and FX. Simply put, if you have enough liquidity on your platform, the price you pay for leverage can be LOWER than what you might pay somewhere else. Simple example: If you need a mortgage for your house, you are going to try to get the best rate possible. This is you trying to find the "cheapest leverage" possible in the system. If someone offers you a lower interest rate, with no trade offs, people will take it. Many brokerage accounts compete with each other on the margin rates you have to pay in order to use the firms margin. The same dynamic is true for Hyperliquid. If they can provide attractive margin rates (or what we can funding rates on Hyperliquid), then this is the real value proposition for Hyperliquid. While everyone is focused on ETF flows, you want to ask what are the drivers of value that would catalyze the flows of the largest players to begin using Hyperliquid every single day. Clearly, the regulatory constraint is holding capital back like a dam holding back water that wants to pour into a new market. But the most important thing to understand is that if the funding rates for interest rates and FX are low enough on Hyperliquid, this begins to attract capital from the largest players in the world. This especially attracts capital from the entire Eurodollar market that is constantly trying to hedge the surplus of dollar liquidity that is in the system due to the dollars reserve currency status and the historic level of trade the US has conducted which has pushed an unprecedented level of dollars through the entire system. This flow mechanism connected to the larger macro picture is WHY I am so bullish on Hyperliquid. Notice that functionally, no one else has talked about this. They think this is just the regular "crypto cycle" where you buy momentum and fade the price once everyone starts talking about it on the timeline. The place we are at with Hyperliquid is actually taking advantage of the biggest blind spots for both people in crypto and people in traditional markets. Crypto people have been conditioned to just think in terms of pump and dumps instead of value creation and flow mechanics in the global interest rate complex. Traditional finance people have functionally dismissed crypto as something that is worthless because no one has really provided true value that has lasted. This is why I wrote this article on the blindspot that existed earlier this year, before Hyperliquid made its massive YTD rally: x.com/Globalflows/st… There is a reason that no one is talking about these mechanics. The crypto influencers or VC establishments won't talk about it because they didnt get to invest in Hyperliquid before it launched or get a crypto allocation to schill. On the flip side, the largest institutions won't talk about Hyperliquid because they dont want to draw attention to a market that they havent established a dominant positioning in yet. "Do you mean to tell me you've finally established a position, so you can price mine?" - The Big Short My job is a trader. I get paid to hold risk and I have established a position in $PURR which is the largest Hyperliquid treasury company and the only treasury company in the world with a positive P&L right now. It is up over 140% since I originally published the view (see my pinned tweet). But we have only just begun to price what is possible for Hyperliquid and what is possible for $PURR. Once you realize that Hyperliquid sits in a massive gap in the tradfi and crypto space, then you will realize why $PURR sits as the bridge to BOTH of these. I continue to hold my $PURR position and it is my strong conviction that Hyperliquid will have a significant rally beyond anyone's expectations and $PURR will be the direct beneficiary of this in addition to adding additional shareholder value on top of HYPE returns. There are several things that you need to know in order to navigate these changes in Hyperliquid: 1) Understand that we are in a credit cycle melt up that in its very nature is currently sowing the seeds of its own demise. None of this will end well given the amount of liquidity that is in the system but first we are melting up MUCH MUCH HIGHER. 2) Hyperliquid underlying drivers in its value proposition that could catalyze capital aggressively moving onto the platform to access cheap leverage. 3) All of the signals for positioning in global risk assets, interest rates, Hyperliquid, and $PURR. I will be providing an entire playbook for #1-3 in a livestream tomorrow at 8:30am MST. You will walk away with a playbook for the credit cycle, a model with the code included on mapping funding rates on Hyperliquid, and Tradingview models for monitoring the positioning signals. This will be 100% free for everyone who is a subscriber here. I will send out the links tonight and resend them tomorrow morning so no one misses it: capitalflowsresearch.com/subscribe Below, I will link the most important tweets and videos I have done thus far that you should review before the livestream tomorrow Welcome to global macro HYPERLIQUID

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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@EchoAnalysis This is the mist unhinged chart ive ever seen
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Echo Analysis
Echo Analysis@EchoAnalysis·
$NOW Will be a generational buy 👀 Just not yet. I'm still expecting one more low. Support at the 0.786 fib is where I'm loading the boat. Long term Wave 3 target: 739% 🚀
Echo Analysis tweet media
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@x256xx Does this calc use MC or FDV?
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x256.hl
x256.hl@x256xx·
Spot $HYPE is extremely cheap
x256.hl tweet media
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Tobias Reisner
Tobias Reisner@reisnertobias·
HYPE is cheap on a P/E Basis
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McKenna
McKenna@Crypto_McKenna·
Hyperliquid market capitalisation. is currently standing at 12.91Bn and is earning post AQAv2 around 800-900M in revenue annually. Not factoring in 99% protocol revenue is directed back to a secondary buyback of HYPE which is unprecedented across every digital asset and publicly listed company globally. It's in my belief that HYPE remains underpriced. $HYPE
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bilbo أُعيد تغريده
Haralabos Voulgaris
Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob·
I feel for the ZEC holders who got rekt. Truly. It’s true that in life very few people are actually looking out for you. But what’s often understated is that there’s a massive difference between normal self-interest and people who seem to lack any moral framework at all, people who treat harming or extracting from others as if it’s the backbone of their entire life philosophy. With ZEC, everything from the people around the project since inception to the ones promoting it of late pointed to something darker than self-interest: a total absence of honor, restraint, and moral consequence. There’s a difference between realizing you’re in this alone and nobody is looking out for you, and realizing some people will actively destroy you if it means they can make more money or achieve their goals.
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@hosseeb “AI found this bug” Stop shilling the worst projects that haven’t been tested in any meaningful capacity.
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Haseeb >|<
Haseeb >|<@hosseeb·
There's a lot of confusion about the recently patched Zcash bug. Here's how to actually understand it. If the bug had been exploited before the patch (very unlikely it was), it would have looked like the shielded pool getting drained. Whoever minted the counterfeit shielded ZEC would want to sell fast, before anyone else found the same bug. And remember, the market for ZEC is almost entirely transparent ZEC, not shielded. You can't dump freshly minted shielded ZEC on Binance or Coinbase without unshielding it first. The losers in that scenario are shielded holders who sit still. The transparent portion of Zcash is fully visible, so it's trivial to enforce that transparent ZEC never exceeds max supply. If you try to unshield more than the cap, you'll get stopped at the door. So if you hold transparent ZEC (anyone trading, on an exchange, or doing price discovery on ZEC) there's no marginal effect on you. The loss falls entirely on shielded holders. The team's next step is a new turnstile and a fresh shielded pool in the coming upgrade, which will confirm the shielded pool was not inflated. Think of it as taking headcount at the end of the field trip--that will make sure no extra kids snuck onto the bus. But while AI found this bug, AI will also deliver the fix for the whole category: formal verification. I'm very bullish on this as the path to harden all software across the industry. Formally verified cryptography can't have implementation bugs by construction. Right now AI is surfacing vulnerabilities across all our software--browsers, OSes, and blockchains are no exception. We're in the awkward adolescence where every wart is getting magnified and put on full display. But formally verified software is the only path forward for mission-critical software, and Zcash has put it front and center on their roadmap to deliver. Privacy is too important not to. (Dragonfly holds $ZEC and continues to. I'm personally an investor in ZODL.)
Josh Swihart 🛡@jswihart

In the last 48 hours, amid all the FUD, the size of the Zcash shielded pool has dropped from 31% of supply to 30%. Down ~1%.

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Cameron Winklevoss
Cameron Winklevoss@cameron·
Zcash has unparalleled cryptographers, security engineers, and security researchers. And the community is heavily focused on continuous improvement and hardening the network. That's why it engages world class security researchers to look for bugs. And that's why the recent potential exploit was found. It wasn't by accident and it's a vote of confidence, not a cause for alarm. When it comes to any L1, there will be bugs. What's important is that there are world class researchers focused on hardening the network and staying ahead of the bad guys. This has always been and always will be the dynamic of building software that is secure. Onward.
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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@BarakRavid What the hell are you doing
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Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid·
🚨The U.S. official said Trump was told it would take around three days before the Iranians get back with a response. "They're literally in caves and they're not using email," the senior administration official said 🚨"There will be a deal. The imminence of it, we'll see. We're willing to wait so the president gets what he asks for. It could be a week. It could be less. It could be more. At the turn of the week, we hope to have something," the senior administration official said
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷President Trump asked for several amendments to the deal his envoys reached with their Iranian counterparts during a Situation Room meeting on Friday, according to a senior U.S. official & second source familiar. @MarcACaputo and I write for @axios axios.com/2026/05/31/tru…

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.
Serenity tweet media
O@Ecom_Venture2

@aleabitoreddit I wanna add to my $SIVE position, is it worth waiting till after earnings?

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bilbo
bilbo@Bilbobag12341·
@SmallCapScience It is teeny tiny, but gotta figure it will be all hands on deck, and as soon as they get any sort of contract will ramp. @Longviewres has a pretty good research piece pinned, good place to start.
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Small Cap Scientist 👨‍🔬🧪🥼
Most of you still aren’t ready for the natural gas boom. There is a zero percent chance that markets don’t arbitrage Natural Gas with 5-6x profits for Europe and Asia. Henry Hub will settle somewhere in the middle. Id guess $6-9 over the next 2-3 months
Small Cap Scientist 👨‍🔬🧪🥼@SmallCapScience

US Data Centers will run on Natural Gas. Henry Hub Gas Futures are under $3 MMBtu in the United States. It's $15-17 MMBtu in both Europe and Asia. It's a key advantage for the United States in the Global AI race. $NG1! will trend higher as US exports arbitrage global prices.

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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
The Nasdaq will never crash Any day it is up less than 1% is an opportunity to buy the dip We are in a new paradigm AI is a Cambrian explosion of wealth and productivity All previous economic regimes and measuring systems are now irrelevant and outdated
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Pepe
Pepe@LionJ47752·
@PrepperCanadian Months long? Their interception rate collapsed after 1 week. 2 week war again capestone with dramatic end like the nuclear facility and Qatar base strike for ceasefire.
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Canadian Prepper
Canadian Prepper@PrepperCanadian·
Based on the playbook lately, the US/Israel will run a months-long grind on Iran: force readiness fatigue, stir internal unrest, float “peace talks,” then take another decapitation shot the moment Tehran blinks. A pager-style stunt could be the spark. I wouldn’t bet on anything immediate, but the whole point is to blindside you. If there’s a prelude, it’s finishing Lebanon first.
World Source News@Worldsource24

BREAKING: Reuters, citing three Iranian officials: Iran believes the U.S. or Israel may take military action against the country.

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