ConservativesCryyyy

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ConservativesCryyyy

ConservativesCryyyy

@CryConservative

انضم Haziran 2025
16 يتبع4 المتابعون
Jennifer Callahan
Jennifer Callahan@jenlynncallahan·
You all really think LA just willingly traded the possibility of clean, safe streets for a barbecue ban?
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@LatinosPorPratt Stfu Pratt lost haha 🤣! Hispanic didn’t want Pratt stupid fuck. Keep thinking you are white haha 🤣! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣!
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Latinos Por Pratt
Latinos Por Pratt@LatinosPorPratt·
The key phrase to learn: outcome determinative
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@zackpeter Cry conservative cry hahaha 😂! Pratt lost hahaha 😂! Cry me river conservative cry baby hahaha 😂!
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Zack Peter
Zack Peter@zackpeter·
Nithya Raman’s sudden advantage is statistically impossible
Jeremy Padawer@JeremyCom

The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible… I ASKED CHATGPT - “What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.” The Answer (Part 1) - “Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size: 50 ballots 0.88% 100 ballots 0.028% 200 ballots 0.00004% 500 ballots ~0.00000000000018% 1,000 ballots ~0.0000000000000000000000000035%” My follow up - “Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.” The Answer (Part 2) - “If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.” 75 standard deviations is in an entirely different universe. The probability is approximately: ~10⁻¹²²⁰ or about 1 chance in 10¹²²⁰ That’s a number with roughly 1,220 zeros after the 1. Statistically, if the batch were truly a random sample of the same electorate, the odds are so small that statisticians would effectively treat the event as impossible. The usual conclusion would not be “wow, what a lucky fluctuation,” but rather that the batch is not representative of the earlier ballots—for example, it came from a different geographic area, voting method, demographic group, or subset of voters. So yes: much worse than one in a billion, much worse than one in a trillion, and vastly smaller than any probability encountered in ordinary statistical analysis.” My follow up - “More grains of sand on earth than the likelihood of this?” The Answer (Part 3) - “Yes. Much, much more. Estimated grains of sand on Earth are often put around 10¹⁸ to 10²⁰. Your odds example was roughly: 1 in 10¹²²⁰ So this is not just “less likely than picking one grain of sand on Earth.” It’s more like picking the right grain of sand on Earth correctly over and over again dozens of times in a row.” Sincerely, Jeremy Padawer Pacificpalisades.com @spencerpratt @BoredElonMusk @Hotshot_Movie @415FirePhoto #losangeles #la #fyp #mayor

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Amy Reichert
Amy Reichert@amyforsandiego·
Election games start before ballots drop. In CA-48, both @marnivonwilpert and @ACampaNajjar (both Democrats) were running, then Corinna Contreras (Democrat) jumped in late. The idea that her Latino last name would pull votes from Ammar is a pretty racist concept. @marnivonwilpert, did you have anything to do with recruiting her into the race?
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@cathlyn_moss Fatty Pratt lost haha 🤣! It’s over haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣
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Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 BREAKING: NITHYA RAMAN JUST STUNNINGLY SURGED IN LATE MAIL-IN BALLOTS...about to take over Spencer Pratt She is down *7,500* votes now LA MAIL DROP: 🔵 Nithya Raman: 23,514 (40.2%) ‼️ 🔵 Karen Bass: 19,312 (33%) 🔴 Spencer Pratt: 10,366 (17.7%) We are watching it happen before our very eyes. California's elections are a worldwide DISGRACE. Raman is now also WINNING the "late" mail, even beating Karen Bass in that category. Imagine that. The uproar is going to be insane if she locks out Pratt from advancing to the general.
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@amyforsandiego Keep on cry dumb fuck haha 🤣! Pratt lost haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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Amy Reichert
Amy Reichert@amyforsandiego·
So @nithyavraman came in 3rd place in the very City Council district she’s represented for 5½ years, but we’re supposed to believe a flood of late ballots from Skid Row outside of her district changed everything?
Houman David Hemmati, MD, PhD@houmanhemmati

As @BoredElonMusk & the data show, Raman’s late mail in ballot surge was fueled in large part by ballots from Skid Row. Tens of thousands of homeless whose ballots are sent to central addresses (not the sidewalk) & can be filled out/returned by someone else. Suspicious…

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Echo
Echo@hearing_echoes·
@CryConservative @cathlyn_moss Lol imagine being this fag. 'Conservatives cry' lol I think she started the account just to message this.
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@cathlyn_moss It’s over dumb ass. Pratt lost . She will take him easily! The cope is real haha 🤣! Republicans conservatives have no power in California yay. Only stupid trump supporters like you think that a republican conservative have a chance in California! Cry me river conservative 🤣
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@cathlyn_moss Stfu fat ass! Join the gym haha 🤣! Fat face! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣! Pratt lost get over it lol haha 🤣! Everyone is California is loving it haha 🤣!
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Always 🇺🇸MAGA🇺🇸
@EricLDaugh Maybe We should give them the same Hell they give us !!! Fight Back !! Peacefully Riot !!! Get in Their Faces !! Call Them Out !!!
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Ian Miller
Ian Miller@ianmSC·
These vote drops are comically one sided Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 20 points yesterday and…nearly 23 points today. She’s going to pass him tomorrow. It’s over. Raman and Bass went 73.2-17.7% over Pratt today. Raman beat Bass 40-33. And that’s why LA is hopeless.
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@ryobi1976 @SenseWills Once democrats win the house in November, Trump won’t be able to do anything his last 2 years yay 😀! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣
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Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton@SteveHiltonx·
"We're just getting started" Becerra says 🤣🤣 "You've had 16 YEARS!! And what's the result? Highest cost of living, highest taxes, worst results...crime, chaos, homelessness... Time for a change not more of the same!
Xavier Becerra@XavierBecerra

California has spoken. Thank you for standing with us. To every volunteer who made a call, sent a text, knocked a door, or showed up when it mattered most — this victory belongs to you. We're just getting started. On to November.

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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@ryobi1976 @SenseWills With brain dead trump supporters like you no wonder everyone laughs at America! Everyone knows that trump has the stupidest uneducated supporters! Blue wave in coming in November, so get your tears ready even more conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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MAGEE
MAGEE@ryobi1976·
@SenseWills @CryConservative With fucking idiots like you no wonder the states totally fucked. You deserve every miserable thing you get.
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ConservativesCryyyy
ConservativesCryyyy@CryConservative·
@ryobi1976 Cry conservative cry haha 🤣! Hilton has 0% of winning on November! So keep on crying brain dead conservative cry baby clown! The cope is real! James talarico will flip Texas blue yay 😁! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
San Diego County 6/5 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 22,737 (31.6%, +6.8%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 19,155 (26.6%, +8.5%) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 17,797 (24.7%, -8.2%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 4,699 (6.5%, -3.0%)
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Kalshi Politics
Kalshi Politics@KalshiPolitics·
NEW ALL-TIME LOW: Spencer Pratt’s odds to advance in the LA Mayor race decrease to 17%
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