@zackpeter Cry conservative cry hahaha 😂! Pratt lost hahaha 😂! Cry me river conservative cry baby hahaha 😂!
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ConservativesCryyyy
756 posts
Nithya Raman’s sudden advantage is statistically impossible
Jeremy Padawer@JeremyCom
The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible… I ASKED CHATGPT - “What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.” The Answer (Part 1) - “Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size: 50 ballots 0.88% 100 ballots 0.028% 200 ballots 0.00004% 500 ballots ~0.00000000000018% 1,000 ballots ~0.0000000000000000000000000035%” My follow up - “Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.” The Answer (Part 2) - “If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.” 75 standard deviations is in an entirely different universe. The probability is approximately: ~10⁻¹²²⁰ or about 1 chance in 10¹²²⁰ That’s a number with roughly 1,220 zeros after the 1. Statistically, if the batch were truly a random sample of the same electorate, the odds are so small that statisticians would effectively treat the event as impossible. The usual conclusion would not be “wow, what a lucky fluctuation,” but rather that the batch is not representative of the earlier ballots—for example, it came from a different geographic area, voting method, demographic group, or subset of voters. So yes: much worse than one in a billion, much worse than one in a trillion, and vastly smaller than any probability encountered in ordinary statistical analysis.” My follow up - “More grains of sand on earth than the likelihood of this?” The Answer (Part 3) - “Yes. Much, much more. Estimated grains of sand on Earth are often put around 10¹⁸ to 10²⁰. Your odds example was roughly: 1 in 10¹²²⁰ So this is not just “less likely than picking one grain of sand on Earth.” It’s more like picking the right grain of sand on Earth correctly over and over again dozens of times in a row.” Sincerely, Jeremy Padawer Pacificpalisades.com @spencerpratt @BoredElonMusk @Hotshot_Movie @415FirePhoto #losangeles #la #fyp #mayor
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Election games start before ballots drop. In CA-48, both @marnivonwilpert and @ACampaNajjar (both Democrats) were running, then Corinna Contreras (Democrat) jumped in late. The idea that her Latino last name would pull votes from Ammar is a pretty racist concept. @marnivonwilpert, did you have anything to do with recruiting her into the race?
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@kristenmag Pratt lost haha 🤣! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣
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So many people have insisted ‘But California verifies every signature!’
No. No they don’t. There’s a loophole that allows a witness to sign someone else’s ballot. And witness signatures are impossible to verify. Does not inspire confidence!
Jennifer Callahan@jenlynncallahan
Wildest takeaways from my time at the Ballot Processing Center today. ✍🏻 Signatures only need to be 40% accurate (!) this is the setting the machines are set at for LA County (called the ASV) 🗳️ The last two drops disproportionately supported Raman. Are those coming from specific neighborhoods since they’re such an anomaly? Or are the neighborhoods pretty spread out that you count from on a given day? “We’re not sure.” 💌 If you’re unable to sign, you can make a “mark” like a dot or slash instead of signing. A witness then signs below. I asked them how they verify these signatures. Turns out, they simply don’t. Well, you must check the witness signatures, right? “No, we don’t.” So what if I stole a ballot, made a dash by the person’s name, and signed my name? “You shouldn’t do that, but in theory it would be counted,” they said. How many of these “marked” ballots get in per election? “We don’t know,” they said. Ripe for fraud, no?
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@DominguezH31015 Pratt lost haha 🤣! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣! Dinosaur brain Pratt lost haha 🤣!
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Who remembers the reporter who got punched in the face during an interview—just because the person she was talking to didn’t agree with her?
Why didn’t the reporter just stab the attacker straight in the heart and kill her?
I know why. But let’s see if Karmelo Anthony’s supporters can answer.
#KarmeloAnthony #JusticeForAustinMetcalf #TexasTrial #SelfDefense #DoubleStandards
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@cathlyn_moss Fatty Pratt lost haha 🤣! It’s over haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣
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YouTube
QME
🚨 BREAKING: NITHYA RAMAN JUST STUNNINGLY SURGED IN LATE MAIL-IN BALLOTS...about to take over Spencer Pratt
She is down *7,500* votes now
LA MAIL DROP:
🔵 Nithya Raman: 23,514 (40.2%) ‼️
🔵 Karen Bass: 19,312 (33%)
🔴 Spencer Pratt: 10,366 (17.7%)
We are watching it happen before our very eyes. California's elections are a worldwide DISGRACE.
Raman is now also WINNING the "late" mail, even beating Karen Bass in that category. Imagine that.
The uproar is going to be insane if she locks out Pratt from advancing to the general.
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@amyforsandiego Keep on cry dumb fuck haha 🤣! Pratt lost haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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So @nithyavraman came in 3rd place in the very City Council district she’s represented for 5½ years, but we’re supposed to believe a flood of late ballots from Skid Row outside of her district changed everything?
Houman David Hemmati, MD, PhD@houmanhemmati
As @BoredElonMusk & the data show, Raman’s late mail in ballot surge was fueled in large part by ballots from Skid Row. Tens of thousands of homeless whose ballots are sent to central addresses (not the sidewalk) & can be filled out/returned by someone else. Suspicious…
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Report of "rolling shooting attack" in Israel, "4 locations where gunfire was reported so far, with 3 injured."
הלל ביטון רוזן | Hallel Bitton Rosen@BittonRosen
אירוע ירי מתגלגל: 4 מוקדים בהם דווח על ירי עד כה, עם 3 פצועים. כוכב יאיר, צור יצחק, צור נתן וסלעית. הרכב ובו היורה טרם נלכד. חשד לפיגוע.
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Check this shit out… The last dump of ballots in the LA Mayor Race broke significantly in favor for Democrat Nithya Raman.. even more than Karen Bass.
Los Angelos is literally printing ballots out on demand in favor for democrats.
Source
theballotbook.com/results/county…
MJTruthUltra@MJTruthUltra
IT’S TIME. SEND IN THE MILITARY! Spencer Pratt had nearly a 12+ point advantage over Nithya Raman the night of election. After several days of non-stop fraudulent mail-in ballots, the latest update tonight shows Spencer Pratt is now on track to finish in THIRD PLACE. There will be ZERO Republican choices in the November election. Los Angeles will only be given democrats to choose from California rigged it once again.
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@kylekuzma Pratt lost dumb fuck haha 🤣! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣
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Not sure what to make of this? Signal is… COMPUTE is king. Go long
Aadit Sheth@aaditsh
Wait. Google is paying SpaceX $920 million per month for GPUs? Google. The company that builds its own TPUs. That runs one of the largest cloud infrastructures on earth. Is renting 110,000 Nvidia GPUs from a rocket company. I'm honestly not sure what to make of this. Either Google's AI compute needs have gotten so massive that even they can't build fast enough. Or SpaceX has built something in AI infrastructure that nobody was paying attention to. Or both. $920M a month. $30B over the contract. Whatever is happening behind the scenes at these companies is moving way faster than what we see publicly.
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@hearing_echoes @cathlyn_moss Cry stupid conservative cry haha 🤣!
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@CryConservative @cathlyn_moss Lol imagine being this fag. 'Conservatives cry' lol
I think she started the account just to message this.
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@cathlyn_moss It’s over dumb ass. Pratt lost . She will take him easily! The cope is real haha 🤣! Republicans conservatives have no power in California yay. Only stupid trump supporters like you think that a republican conservative have a chance in California! Cry me river conservative 🤣
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@cathlyn_moss Stfu fat ass! Join the gym haha 🤣! Fat face! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣! Pratt lost get over it lol haha 🤣! Everyone is California is loving it haha 🤣!
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@EricLDaugh Maybe We should give them the same Hell they give us !!! Fight Back !! Peacefully Riot !!! Get in Their Faces !! Call Them Out !!!
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These vote drops are comically one sided
Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 20 points yesterday and…nearly 23 points today. She’s going to pass him tomorrow. It’s over.
Raman and Bass went 73.2-17.7% over Pratt today. Raman beat Bass 40-33. And that’s why LA is hopeless.
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@ryobi1976 @SenseWills Once democrats win the house in November, Trump won’t be able to do anything his last 2 years yay 😀! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣
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@CryConservative @SenseWills Stale shit, keep crying for the next few years .
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"We're just getting started" Becerra says
🤣🤣 "You've had 16 YEARS!!
And what's the result? Highest cost of living, highest taxes, worst results...crime, chaos, homelessness...
Time for a change not more of the same!
Xavier Becerra@XavierBecerra
California has spoken. Thank you for standing with us. To every volunteer who made a call, sent a text, knocked a door, or showed up when it mattered most — this victory belongs to you. We're just getting started. On to November.
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@ryobi1976 @SenseWills With brain dead trump supporters like you no wonder everyone laughs at America! Everyone knows that trump has the stupidest uneducated supporters! Blue wave in coming in November, so get your tears ready even more conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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@SenseWills @CryConservative With fucking idiots like you no wonder the states totally fucked. You deserve every miserable thing you get.
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@ryobi1976 Cry conservative cry haha 🤣! Hilton has 0% of winning on November! So keep on crying brain dead conservative cry baby clown! The cope is real! James talarico will flip Texas blue yay 😁! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣
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@Specops119 @JWing747 @VoteHub Stfu clown you act like Hilton has a chance to win in November! Cry conservative cry haha 🤣!
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@A_RacistBassist @LoneStarLegendX Pratt lost get over it conservative cry baby haha 🤣
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NEW ALL-TIME LOW: Spencer Pratt’s odds to advance in the LA Mayor race decrease to 17%
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@kristenmag Pratt lost dumb bitch lol haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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California politics suck, but it sure is pretty here! Really hope we can save it.
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@amyforsandiego She’s about to beat Pratt yay 😁! Now what old lady haha 🤣! Cry me river conservative cry baby haha 🤣!
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