KSplit | Strikeout Projections

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections

KSplit | Strikeout Projections

@KSplitAnalytics

MLB strikeout distributions | Lineup-specific, split-driven bottom up modeling | Occasional degen bets | Full Access below

انضم Mart 2023
61 يتبع305 المتابعون
تغريدة مثبتة
KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
5/20/26 Slate + Methods Recap The methods have been absolutely killing it Since Opening Day: Theory Stack: +44u ✅ Centered Unders: +35.11u✅ Strict Centered Unders: +26.80u✅ Plus Odds Unders 3%+ Edge: +24.53u✅ Stable Tail: +11.52u✅ Low-Tier HTD: +11.95u✅ There really is no wrong method to choose, try for free @ KSplitAnalytics.com, all methods available under the board presets. After an absolutely terrible April for "overs" model is now back to net positive overall, with over signals still down about 9 units. Again, the goal here is to not take every single pick the model puts out, mitigating risk and sticking to consistent unit sizing is what matters most. Got a ladder spot that I’m eyeing for today… waiting for confirmed lineups.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Fair value for the main line -128 Second image shows the hitters worst pitch rated by CSW, league average included for reference, and Shane’s usage for that pitch vs the batter’s respective handedness. Example: Soler has a 32.1% CSW vs LHP 4SFB, league average CSW% 28.2%, and Shane throws it 34.5% to RHH.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

Getting this in now, will write it up tomorrow. Amazing reverse split matchup here as Shane’s changeup is one of the best is the league against RHH and LAA is loaded with them.

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Getting this in now, will write it up tomorrow. Amazing reverse split matchup here as Shane’s changeup is one of the best is the league against RHH and LAA is loaded with them.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Yesterday actually makes sense. Rasmussen has extreme reverse strikeout splits, (As a RHP, Ks LHH more than RHH) and the Angels put out 6(?) RHH. Didn't think it would go as poorly as it did but I did not anticipate a great outing from Rasmussen.
JT’s evil twin brother@JTsEvilTwin

@KSplitAnalytics Pitchers are getting a lot of strike outs against the angels. Except for yesterday

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
I don’t bet HRs but Tatis finally got his first yesterday and is facing Littell today… worth a sprinkle imo
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
5/30/26 Slate and Methods Recap Overall: -2.16u (13-15) Overs: -1.18u (4-5) Unders: -0.98u (9-10) Pretty "meh" day, both sides just slightly negative methods got hit hard though as 3/4 finished in the red. Max ladder on Weathers was a nice hit, Detmers u5.5 and Yesavage ladder were duds. If you took all of those, you finished up around 1.00u Theory Stack +2.23u Plus Odds Unders ≥3% −1.53u Centered Unders -2.97u Strict Centered Unders −0.78u All time and rolling metrics photographed below for the methods
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

5/29/26 Slate and Methods Recap Overall +2.74u 13-9 Overs: -3.13u 3-5 Unders: +5.87u 10-4 Every method finished in the green, we were a Meyer hook away from an even better day Centered Unders +6.71u 9-2 Trevor Rogers u4.5 6.21% Edge @ -152✅ Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Freddy u5.5 8.34% Edge @ -126✅ Cecconi u4.5 5.87% Edge @ -151✅ Lorenzen u3.5 0.49% Edge @ -102✅ Rodon u6.5 6.62% Edge @ -149✅ Sevy u5.5 7.90% Edge @ -148✅ (RIP) Gallen u4.5 1.65% Edge @ -116✅ Kirby u5.5 4.00% Edge @ -140✅ Urena u3.5 3.18% Edge @ -107✖️ Webb u4.5 0.73% Edge @ -128✖️ Strict Centered Unders +1.06u 1-0 Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Theory Stack +0.06u 1-1 Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Meyer u5.5 6.34% Edge @ +123✖️ Plus Odds Unders ≥3% +0.16u 1-1 Wheeler u5.5 8.85% edge @ +116✅ Meyer u5.5 6.34% Edge @ +123✖️

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Second max in 3 days, back on track +120 ✅ +231 ✅ +446 ✅ I know at least one sicko paired him with Woo
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

Alright went back and forth on this one for a bit but going to pull the trigger Weathers🪜 o6.5 +120 1u o7.5 +231 0.5u o8.5 +446 0.25u Another lefty going against the Athletics after Rodon wasn't his sharpest last night, I like the matchup much more for Weathers, and he's getting a couple favorable K targets at the top of the order which helps considerably.

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Jake
Jake@LunchMoneyDubs·
@KSplitAnalytics @EVFrenzy If the last 5 are green, the play is a full send. Sportsbooks give out these graphs cuz they want us to win
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
😂 the fact that you’re parading around like some genius is amazing. My argument was your process, not the specific play. The fact he got 7 Ks did not have anything to do with the pattern in the bar chart. In addition it took a statistical anamoly of striking out Chandler Simpson TWICE in one game. Not understanding a correlation between events not being the cause will fail you in the long run. Have a good day
Prop@PropSurfer

No words. Just green that

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Alright went back and forth on this one for a bit but going to pull the trigger Weathers🪜 o6.5 +120 1u o7.5 +231 0.5u o8.5 +446 0.25u Another lefty going against the Athletics after Rodon wasn't his sharpest last night, I like the matchup much more for Weathers, and he's getting a couple favorable K targets at the top of the order which helps considerably.
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Fly 🪰
Fly 🪰@xFlyGod·
@KSplitAnalytics Not realizing that one game doesn't prove his point is a giant self own.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
@EVFrenzy It’s statistics… it’s objective. If bar charts were a profitable way to analyze outcomes do you think sportsbooks would shove them down our throats?
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Chandler and Yandy the two lowest K bats in the lineup strikeout, rip
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

Detmers u5.5 Ks (-120) I maxed his ladder last game, not anticipating a similar outcome today. Model projects 4.93 Ks, a full half K under the line, for a +10.9% edge. Fair price is -169 kADJ is my per batter plate discipline nudge (chase + in zone whiff, etc.) blended into an adjustment on the final K% probability per PA, applied before I build the distribution. 8/9 TB bats grade negative with Aranda the sole positive adjustment at 0.09%. It's an arsenal fit problem, not just lineup quality. For each hitter I pulled the pitch they whiff on most vs lefties, and checked how often Detmers actually throws it. They don't line up at all, the bats with real swing and miss only chase his secondaries Caminero (32.4% whiff on curves), Williamson (36.4% on changups ) Walls (30.0% on changeups) Those are pitches he throws just 11–17% of the time vs the above hitters respective handedness. Where he lives, the 4SFB to Aranda (48.9% usage) and the slider to lefties (~42%), the whiff rates are pedestrian. His highest leverage offerings are aimed at contact bats Top of the order seals it: Yandy tops out at a 13.5% whiff on anything, Simpson is a 9.7% K% vs LHP slap hitter.

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Got some insanely awful CLV, line is now 5.5 Model projects 6.54 Ks, a full strikeout clear of the line, for a +5.5% edge to the over. P(over) comes back 63% fair price -173. Quick refresh on the lineup card: kADJ is my per batter plate discipline adjustment chase rate and in zone whiff rate, CSW as a whole, etc. weighted to adjust the initial strikeout probability per plate appearance. Real reason I trust it is the second card it's a great setup based off of Yesavage's pitch mix. For each hitter I pulled the single pitch they whiff on most against righties, then checked how often Yesavage actually throws it to that side (4SFB/slider/splitter) Slider grades as the best pitch for his entire right handed core Alonso 35.1%, Mayo 41.1%, Jeremiah Jackson 41.5% whiff and he leans into it 31.9% vs RHB, also worth noting it has looked much better so far this season. Against the lefties, the splitter does the same, worst pitch for Henderson (31.4%) and Taveras, and he throws it 46.6% of the time to that side. The one mismatch is the slider being the worst pitch for lefties Basallo (38.3%) and Rutschman, which he only throws 12.4% barely matters since the splitter is his putaway pitch against LHH.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

I’m sure this will be a very popular play, but it’s warranted Write up later today

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Nice 2-0 start to the day, both unders on the early games fell under one of the respective methods Framber u4.5 Ks 2.0% Edge @ +127✅ Kay u4.5 Ks 7.30% Edge @ -130✅ Added a Model Plays tab to the site so users don't have to manually filter the board to find them ksplitanalytics.com/model-plays
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Kasper
Kasper@KasperMLB·
I normally stay quiet about stuff like this on the TL but trying to attack @PropSurfer when he cashes his followers multiple times daily is absurd. Especially when you’re referring to Reid Detmers. And you’re a strikeout account?! Pitchers are creatures of habit. They do not deviate from their starting routines when it is their starting day. Yes, games are individual events by themselves but you’re neglecting multiple highly important things when it comes to evaluating arms. For one, trends are real thing with pitchers, mostly driven by their K-BB% to determine if they are due for positive or negative regression. K-BB% is one of the strongest indicators of future success on both sides of the ball. As shown by FanGraphs here, Detmers ranks T15 in K-BB% this year and ranks over guys like Bryan Woo for stuff plus (how his pitches grade out). The fact you’re neglecting all of this information in an attempt to attack one of the better names in the space who cashes people daily is sad.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

No, what I’m saying is the last X games are all completely independent events from today’s game, yes, they can give some insight, but what actually matters is opposing lineup composition, in addition to other game specific variables. Obviously, you are entitled to do whatever the hell you want, but ,trying to find a pattern in a bar chart with an extremely small sample size is ridiculous, and not to mention you’re teaching all of your followers how to consistently lose money by doing that.

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