Roger J. Bos, CFA 🔮
3.3K posts
Roger J. Bos, CFA 🔮
@RogerJBos
Quant researcher and Python / Rust / R programmer. Crypto enthusiast and investor. DIYer.
Connecticut انضم Eylül 2018
796 يتبع361 المتابعون
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO BEGIN REFUNDING $166B IN TARIFFS
The U.S. government will start refunding up to $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful.
From April 20, businesses can file claims through a new Customs system to recover duties paid under emergency powers. Courts found only Congress can impose tariffs, forcing the rollback.
Over 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments may be eligible. Once approved, refunds—plus interest—should arrive within 60–90 days, though complex cases may take longer.
Officials warn the process will be massive and complex, but payments will go directly to the businesses that originally paid.
English
@dmweisberger It probably won't be google, but rather Lazarus funded by DeFi hacks.
English
So, what happens if google “hacks” Satoshi’s coins?
Most likely…
NOTHING!
Why?
Because it would make far more sense for Google to OWN them on its balance sheet than dump them.
Not only would that eliminate risk of being found guilty of a crime (hacking is theft), but the massive rally that would take place from such an announcement would make it more valuable for them and holding that much BTC on their balance sheet would be reflected in their stock price.
Once the legalities were handled, if they wanted to sell the hoard, the best move would be an auction to the largest financial companies looking to compete with MSTR. Such an auction would likely have limited, if any, market impact.
The Bitcoin Historian@pete_rizzo_
NIC CARTER WARNS LIVE ON BLOOMBERG THAT SATOSHI'S 1,000,000 #BITCOIN COULD BE HACKED THE QUANTUM THREAT IS "QUITE REAL" GOOGLE HAS A "2029 DEADLINE" BTC COULD BE THE "LAGGARD" LEFT BEHIND
English
@SuhailKakar @punk6529 There needs to be size limits on transactions. Isn't it suspicious when one transactions involves 116k+ ETH. Daily limits would do a lot to limit the damage until the industry can make better decisions.
English
the kelp rsETH post-mortem is wild
lazarus (dprk) compromised two rpc nodes that layerzero dvn was relying on. swapped the op-geth binaries. wrote a custom payload that forged messages *only when the dvn queried* - every other IP, including monitoring, saw clean truthful data.
then they DDoS'd the healthy RPCs to force failover onto the poisoned ones. drained $290M. self-destructed the malicious binaries to erase tracks.
they targeted rsETH because kelp ran a 1-of-1 DVN config with layerzero as sole verifier
LayerZero@LayerZero_Core
English
@aakashgupta I disagree with pretty much everything you said. Anything you cook at home will be healthier than eating out. Also, you can use those bottled ingredients more than once. Bet you didn't know that. You more you learn about processed foods the more you will want to DIY.
English
Panda's food cost on that plate is around $3. They sell it to you for ~$11. If you tried to make it at home you probably spent $15 on ingredients and an hour of your life to lose this race. Here's why the scale math is brutal.
Panda buys boneless chicken thighs at wholesale: around $2/lb, sometimes less on contract. The same cut at your grocery store runs $3-5/lb. You're paying a 2x retail markup before you've turned on the stove.
Then stack the ingredient tax. Orange chicken at home needs cornstarch, soy sauce, rice vinegar, sesame oil, orange juice, brown sugar, garlic, ginger, and frying oil. Each bottle costs $3-8. You use a tablespoon of each and toss the rest a year later. Panda buys these inputs in drums and the per-plate seasoning cost rounds to zero.
Labor is where the comparison breaks. A Panda cook plates 200-300 entrees per shift. Marginal labor is ~90 seconds at ~$18/hr, so about $0.50 of labor per tray. You spent 45 minutes on yours. At any honest hourly rate, the time cost more than the meal.
Panda sells 115 million pounds of orange chicken a year. At that volume, they're functionally a food manufacturer with 2,400 retail outlets. The plate is the last step in a commodities pipeline.
A chain running 90-second wok labor on commodity chicken beats your home kitchen every time. That's the whole business.
Andrew Fleischman@ASFleischman
Panda Express makes no sense to me in an economic level this would have cost me more to make for myself
English
@savage_acro @KennyBurgosNY If you can't trust a PhD to pay rent on time, who can you trust. Shows how much risk landlords are taking on and why rents should be higher to compensate for that risk.
English
This is in my building; I recognize the voice. Sad story: the lady who lived there was a charismatic math phd in the 80s who …slowly stopped caring. The city spent two years trying to help her clean it up, but she would never open the door for them. She got *a decade* behind on rent and after 18 months the landlord finally managed go evict her.
Even if they’re unable to renovate and lease it out, they still see it as worthwhile—no pests in the building since they emptied it.
English
These are so frustrating to receive.
A building owner sent me this video of a 2BR Upper West Side apartment he just got back, but after he empties it out it will stay vacant going forward.
The tenant lived here since 1985 and the current legal rent is $940.01
Because of the 2019 HSTPA law, a building owner is expected to fully renovate this unit to current building code (that’s a good thing), but also expected to lose money in perpetuity at the same time.
This 2BD would need well over $100,000 to clean out the debris, comply with lead laws, upgrade major systems, remove the Sheetrock + much more just to make this into an apartment a tenant would actually want to live in with dignity.
But the law says the $940 rent would still end up below the estimated $1300/mo it costs to operate the apt which covers insurance, property taxes, labor, fuel, and capital expenditures for the building.
So if the new rent falls below the operating cost, the owner would still lose money every month and never see $1 back from the $100k+ renovation.
Why would the state expect anyone to lose money like this? What bank would ever provide a loan with no path to repayment? Why do we acknowledge the cost to build housing but ignore what it takes to preserve older housing?
Why do we accept this policy when thousands of New Yorkers are searching for housing in the midst of the worst supply crunch we’ve ever seen?
So frustrating.
English
@dmweisberger That appartment doesn't look broom clean to me. I would withhold the full deposit and pick my tenants more carefully next time.
English
This is one of the most obvious problems with “progressive” policies…
(Apartments that cost more to renovate & operate than the (absurdly) low rent allowed by the government)
Yet the DSL loonies double down, calling for state confiscation & operation of these units on the taxpayer bill. THAT, however, would destroy the market value of huge swaths of property and result in enormous corruption & overspending as the government gets involved.
Kenny Burgos@KennyBurgosNY
These are so frustrating to receive. A building owner sent me this video of a 2BR Upper West Side apartment he just got back, but after he empties it out it will stay vacant going forward. The tenant lived here since 1985 and the current legal rent is $940.01 Because of the 2019 HSTPA law, a building owner is expected to fully renovate this unit to current building code (that’s a good thing), but also expected to lose money in perpetuity at the same time. This 2BD would need well over $100,000 to clean out the debris, comply with lead laws, upgrade major systems, remove the Sheetrock + much more just to make this into an apartment a tenant would actually want to live in with dignity. But the law says the $940 rent would still end up below the estimated $1300/mo it costs to operate the apt which covers insurance, property taxes, labor, fuel, and capital expenditures for the building. So if the new rent falls below the operating cost, the owner would still lose money every month and never see $1 back from the $100k+ renovation. Why would the state expect anyone to lose money like this? What bank would ever provide a loan with no path to repayment? Why do we acknowledge the cost to build housing but ignore what it takes to preserve older housing? Why do we accept this policy when thousands of New Yorkers are searching for housing in the midst of the worst supply crunch we’ve ever seen? So frustrating.
English
@CoachDanGo Sounds like Hume didn't make any of the lists.
English
@MacroVoices I've been listening to your podcasts for over 5 years and they are my favorite, but I've never heard a single mailbag segment. Must be some super secret episodes.
English
@Aaronbennett But was he happy? Some people can never take a vacation and still be happy. Other people can vacation every month and still be unhappy. Good reminder to work towards a balance.
English
My uncle saved $900,000 for retirement.
Lived on nothing for 40 years to do it.
Brown bag lunches.
No vacations.
Same car for 15 years.
Clipped coupons until the very end.
Died with $900,000 in the bank.
His kids split it.
Spent it in 12 months.
He saved 30 years of living for people who spent it in a year without thinking about him while they did.
English
@LMaranoid @DavidBCollum I like how you have to take more drugs to counter the first drug. It like their making money off the drugs or something.
English
Have not read the comments. In general, people love to crap on statins, but remember the target is ApoB (for most people), as well as plaque stabilization, which is independent of their anti-cholesterol effects.
As long as one takes a statin that does not cross the blood brain barrier, and you are not one of the minority who suffers muscle side effects (largely avoidable with concurrent use of a good quakity CoQ10), they are effective. Ezetimibe also excellent, possibly with anti-Alzheimer benefits as well. PSK9 inhibitors are top shelf, if pricey, as are SGL2 drugs, which very significantly reduce many age related risks including heart disease and stroke.
Free advice, worth what you paid for it.
Not a Zionist plot.
English
I have my answer with many thanks. If you are on statins or thinking of going on them, the comments are, should we say, revealing and seemingly unambiguous...
x.com/DavidBCollum/s…
Dave Collum@DavidBCollum
If you've gone on statins, I would love to hear your experience. (It is not for me but for my wife.) One doc says definitely and another says she doesn't need them. I'm biased against them. Anecdotes appreciated as well as wisdom.
English
@DividendGrowth There is a lore that the best performing accounts are from dead people. So how is that possible?
English
Walter Schramm invested $6,000 in Amazon $AMZN stock in the late 1990s and, following a "buy and hold" strategy
He did not check his account for almost 20 years however
Thinking he had close to $100,000 by then, he checked his account, only to discover it empty
His stock was deemed "abandoned" and liquidated by the state of Delaware in 2008, through a process known as escheatment. Per the state, if you do not check your account for three years, it is deemed abandoned.
The state sold his shares for about $8,000 in 2008, and held the money for him.
Walter did receive a check for $8,000 in the end, but that was still a pittance relative to what the stock would have been worth had he checked his account regularly
The moral of the story is to check your accounts often
English
@DiMartinoBooth Even if the tax performed expected (which it won't), it's only $500M of $12B shortfall. She needs 24 of these new taxes to fill her massive shortfall. Might be time to try something extreme, like cutting spending. The horror.
English
If the goal is to fully deplete most of the state’s tax base, job well done!
Melody Wright@m3_melody
“The tax…would apply to these vacation homes and part-time residences. It would specifically target wealthy individuals who own these pieds-à-terre but primarily live outside the city.”
English
@MarioNawfal She sounds like she has an IQ of 2. Does anyone actually watch her?
English
🇺🇸The moment streamer Yonna Jay realized that taxes aren't optional
"I'm going to prison."
The jury's still out as to whether it's genuine or a play for engagement.
English
@nickgerli1 If home prices fall, will that make raw materials less expensive? Price the materials out in Home Depot and most homes are still a bargain. Oh, and where are you going to get more land from?
English
The U.S. Housing Market is in a full-fledged depression.
Existing sales in March just hit their 2nd lowest level ever for the month, behind only 2009.
Not only that - sales volumes are down 25% from pre-pandemic norms and continue to drop YoY.
Why is this happening? Simple: sky-high prices.
Even though values are starting to drop in many markets, overall price levels remain disconnected from what buyers can pay.
So they're not buying. A concerning signal for the Spring/Summer housing market. Sellers better get ready to cut the price.
To track sales for your city, download Reventure and hit Home Sales Surplus/Deficit: reventure.app/mobile
English
Europoor is an entirely accurate phrase. America is simply in a different league.
English
I wrote this early this morning and I wasn't sure if I would actually publish it, but here it is:
blog.samaltman.com/2279512
English
@WallStreetApes She won't be a resident forever. She will be gouging patients soon enough.
English
American medical student just did “horrifying math” on her student loans
- Her amount due is $396,945.67
- Annual interest rate: 5.875%
- Monthly interest accrual: $1,943.38
Her monthly resident paycheck is $4,054.98
HALF her income goes to just interest…
She says if she pays nothing toward interest, the loan would grow to roughly $600,000 by the time she finishes residency
Interest rates on student loans are predatory and should be illegal. This is usury
English
@GetPyra Let's be real, no one is coming to save any depositors. Just move on.
English
Drift has extended the estimated time for releasing their full recovery and remediation plan as they continue discussions with relevant parties, and we now expect to hear it by the end of the week.
We are still exploring possible options on our own end in the likely event that Drift is not able to make all users whole, but we’re waiting on more details from the Drift team before moving forward on anything.
The process of bringing Pyra back online with a new lending protocol is well underway, and we’re aiming to be live with USDC spending next week, with other assets and loans following shortly after.
Drift@DriftProtocol
Interim Update We recognize the impact this has had across our users and the builders who have integrated with us - many of whom rely on Drift as core infrastructure. We’re actively working on next steps and will share more once details are finalized.
English
@jussy_world @DriftProtocol You didn't mention that the 2 signers signed transactions that they didn't understand. There is a problem with blind signing. Why are we still blind signing in 2026?
English
Something doesn’t add up with @DriftProtocol
1 - Who is downloading TestFlight on secured Device with multi sign access?
2 - No timelocks and no emergency pause
3 - Low-threshold multisig 2/5, and controlled internally
4 - They don’t know who has access
5 - Hacker with admin privileges, listed a meme coin CVT
6 - Used CVT as collateral and borrowed $270m worth tokens
7 - Nobody noticed for AN HOUR until Mert has tweeted that Drfit might be hacked
And most importnatnly:
No apology. No remorse. No accountability. From founders, absolutely nothing
Now Zach also exposed @elementaldefi for putting DPRK IT workers on payroll for years
So, what's really going on?
English