Robert Chase

14K posts

Robert Chase

@chasesfish

Recovering Banker | Novice Surf Bum | Debt Advisory for TMG

Space Coast, FL انضم Aralık 2011

387 يتبع1.7K المتابعون

تغريدة مثبتة

Robert Chase@chasesfish·16 May

How to get ahead financially: Housing: Each additional sqft you buy/rent is added cost. If buying, look for places where the land is worth more than the structure. Vehicles: Your car is a tool to reliably get you from point A to point B. Money spent above the reliable tool threashold is luxury consumption. Food: Having someone else prepare your food costs 3x what it costs to do it yourself. You're not 16th century king, prepared food should be a treat, not an expectation. Once you have enough money to no longer need to work? Splurge away.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·11h

@Mr_Neutral_Man The variable rates were mostly a secondary consequence of taking max leverage on every deal. 75% bridge financing plus some class A pref, you could juice a model at 15% equity. GP with no cash in the game (and sometimes cash at closing) was the 1980s on steriods

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Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”@Mr_Neutral_Man·12h

This take is wrong. It didn’t take a genius to realize that things were crazy in 2021 in real estate, particularly Sunbelt MF. In early 22, we had a 35% short position in $TLT $VCLT and $HYG as a way to hedge against rising interest rates. We hedged the hedge by buying calls on it so we can cap our losses. Prudent investors hedged or stayed on the sidelines. Stop making excuses for ppl who wiped out equity by overpaying and using short term floating rate debt. Our worst investment is $CLPR which had locked in non-recourse fixed rate mortgages that expires in 2026-2030 back in 21. There were plenty of arrogant GPs who argued there was no reason to fix rates.

Mark Allen@MarkAllenMulti

Hot take: most of the people piling on distressed sponsors right now were likely market participants in 2020-2022. Very few had the foresight of an aggressive rate hike cycle. The fact is thousands of sponsors, operators, equity, and debt got caught up in the exuberance of 2020-2022. Private, small players to large institutional players. People and companies new to multifamily, and also with many years of experience. @BeardyBrandon introduced more people to real estate investing than probably anyone in the last decade. Plenty of them built real wealth because of it. I’m just trying to keep some perspective. Lessons learned for many all around.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·16h

@Wildlaw406 Found it mostly dull after already reading Diary of the Great Depression. If not for the hometown connection to Carter Glass I would have DNFd the book.

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〽️ountain Lawyer@Wildlaw406·17h

I just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s book 1929. It’s pretty mediocre. It’s one of those books where you can see what the author was trying to do and can see the gap between the goal and the final product. The most interesting part is the few pages near the end where he gives brief descriptions of how the rest of the lives of the main characters played out, and pretty much all of the Wall Street characters’ lives end in sadness and tragedy. Men like William Durant who founded GM and Chevrolet, died broke and his daughter and her husband were arrested for narcotics trafficking. Jesse Livermore, an incredibly accomplished stock trader who saw the crash coming, shorted the market, and made $10m (in 1929 dollars) while everyone else was losing everything, went on to lose all of it in later high risk trades and ultimately committed suicide. Richard Whitney, president of the NYSE, was convicted of stealing money and securities from the Exchange and his own wife and spent years in Sing Sing. He deceived all of his closest friends and family about what he was doing to maintain the lifestyle he couldn’t give up, and they all paid a price for his deception. Charles Mitchell, head of the bank that is now Citibank went from being an influential, highly respected businessman to being charged with criminal tax evasion. He was acquitted, but Treasury turned around and charged him civilly for unpaid taxes, and wiped him out. He continued to be harassed and pursued by the feds into the 1950s and died in 1955 with his legacy and fortunes ruined. These were all men who were at the peak of prestige and wealth midlife. Even though some of them weathered the Depression in high style, their lives fell apart anyway and they left sad legacies behind when they died. Drives the point home about the dangers of devoting your life to the pursuit of success, wealth, and prestige. That wasn’t the point Sorkin was trying to make, but it ends up being one of the few worthwhile insights in the book.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·16h

@RentsAreUp @MarkAllenMulti Next email I got was "We're 100% raised" Eight figures. There were signs of a top

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Lllllvvvvv@RentsAreUp·16h

@chasesfish @MarkAllenMulti Holy red flag not sharing the model lol

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Mark Allen@MarkAllenMulti·21h

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·19h

With all the GP / LP Discourse, a friendly reminder: The Accredited Investor threasholds were set in 1982. If adjusted for inflation, the requirements would be: Individual Income of $607,568 Household Income of $911,352 Net Worth ex Residence of $3,037,840

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·19h

@CarolWalshReal1 Avoid NZ, doing that but on the opposite side of the road you're used to driving!

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🐝 Carol Walsh ^Monterey Bay^@CarolWalshReal1·1d

Scariest road award goes to the Hogsback in Utah that I almost totally had to close my eyes and just trust hubby. Even he who never gets scared by roads like 1 in Big Sur said afterwards he was sweating. Amazing scenery but you would have to sedate me to do it again.

🐝 Carol Walsh ^Monterey Bay^ tweet media

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·1d

@bavedikian FWIW, Amazon just sent a batch of Leo satellites up the day after the explosion on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V.

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Brandon Avedikian@bavedikian·1d

This is an existential risk for Delta. If their competitors have Starlink and they don’t, they’ll have to turn into the next Spirit Airlines, but even worse. Nobody will buy tickets unless no other viable option exists.

Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

I think it's worth discussing how last night's Blue Origin incident could affect Delta's decision to choose Amazon Leo over @Starlink. A couple months ago, Delta announced plans to begin installing Amazon Leo connectivity on 500 aircraft starting in 2028. The key word here is begin, because unless Amazon decides to launch their Leo satellites on SpaceX rockets in the near term while Blue Origin works to return New Glenn to service, a process that could take 12–15 months (maybe longer) based on early reports, its deployment timeline could face significant delays. Amazon currently has about 300 Leo satellites in orbit, compared to @SpaceX's 10,400 Starlink satellites. Those 500 aircraft would cover only about half of Delta's fleet, meaning a full fleet rollout likely wouldn't be completed until 2030 or so (maybe sooner if they launch Leo sats with SpaceX). United Airlines expects Starlink to be installed on roughly 80% of its fleet (about 880 aircraft) by the end of this year, years ahead of Delta's rollout. Southwest Airlines expects approximately 300 aircraft, or 37% of its fleet, to have Starlink by the end of 2026. American Airlines is scheduled to begin Starlink installations in 2027. This means Delta will have a meaningful competitive disadvantage when it comes to high-speed onboard internet, an increasingly important feature for travelers. This begs the question, does Delta accept these likely delays with Amazon Leo (again, unless they pay SpaceX to launch their sats in the meantime), or do they eventually decide they can't afford to wait and switch to Starlink? A couple other factors to consider though: Delta has broader partnerships with Amazon beyond Leo, and Amazon may have offered a killer deal to get Delta to sign with them, one they may not want to give up. It's also possible Amazon dedicates a large share of Leo's early capacity to Delta, making a smaller satellite constellation mostly sufficient for its needs? I need to look more into that last part. So far, 37 airlines (and counting) have announced Starlink adoption. I now some disagree with me on this, but I believe passengers will increasingly factor high-speed internet connectivity into their flight decisions, especially on longer flights. As more airlines adopt Starlink (three out of the four major U.S. airlines have), pressure will continue to mount for the airlines that haven't adopted it. Jet Blue is in a similar situation to Delta....

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Robert Chase أُعيد تغريده

Chad Griffiths@ChadGriffiths·1d

I'm blocked so I can't ask these questions directly but here's what I would love to know if someone can ask him (or better yet ask him to come on a live podcast!): 1. How did you not underwrite a full property tax reset/reassessment and ongoing rapid increases into your proforma? What annual tax growth rate did you assume versus reality? 2. With rents up ~30% and occupancy staying strong at 95%+, with the asset still cash-flowing, what exact assumptions in the model (exit cap rate, debt service coverage, etc.) still caused a total wipeout of LP equity? 3. Did the underwriting include any real stress testing for 300–500+ bps rate hikes, doubled insurance, or major cap rate expansion? If not why underwrite a 2021 peak deal without it? 4. Why did you take on floating-rate / short-term debt (reportedly a ~3-year balloon) on a long-hold multifamily asset right at the absolute bottom of historically low interest rates in late 2021? What was the thesis for rates staying low or easily refinancing? 5. How did nobody on the sponsor team or your partner Disrupt Equity fully model or manage the interest rate cap mechanics, expiration and renewal costs in a higher-rate environment? 6. Why not lock in longer-term fixed-rate financing, even if it meant slightly lower leverage or different numbers? 7. How much independent underwriting and oversight did Open Door actually perform versus relying on Disrupt Equity for the debt hedge, tax assumptions and exit caps? 8. What was the sponsor’s real skin in the game (equity at risk) versus the upfront fees collected (~$1.7M developer/acquisition fee reported)? 9. How did the deal get approved internally if the major risks around taxes, insurance, rates and cap expansion weren’t properly stress-tested? 10. With strong operational metrics, why couldn’t the deal be extended, refinanced, recapitalized or held longer to protect LP equity instead of the outcome that erased it? 11. Why was the total loss primarily communicated via Instagram after it had already happened (and after investor videos surfaced)? 12. Were all LPs fully and clearly briefed on the exact possibility of 100% equity loss upfront, or was downside risk framed more softly? 13. How many other assets in the current portfolio have similar short-term floating or maturing debt exposure? 14. Roughly how much total compensation did the sponsor group receive from this deal compared to the $15M loss for LPs? 15. As someone who teaches real estate investing to a huge audience, what higher standard of transparency and risk management should someone in your position be held to when raising investor capital? Phew that's a lot of questions (none of which have actually been addressed yet).

Jordan Amarant@JAmarantInc

@VadimYuryev @BeardyBrandon Your takes and feedback is so spot on. I am an investor in two of his funds. I am on X. And I 100% don’t agree with his “snarky comments” and it is offensive to continue to read his defensive and sarcastic engagement online. To say we ALL agree is only for his ego.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·1d

@MikeZaccardi Increasing the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $250,000 is the least controversial thing to come out of Florida in years

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi·2d

this one didn't go over well on BlueSky

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi·2d

Florida... no state income tax... no property tax? Gov DeSantis going for it

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@CarolWalshReal1 Someone referred to the Southeast US as “tunnels of green” and I can’t unsee it now

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🐝 Carol Walsh ^Monterey Bay^@CarolWalshReal1·2d

Husband and I went to Raleigh-Durham in 2000 and I remember distinctly the drive to the beach. Can't see anything cuz it just looks the same and there's no change in elevation, I felt like I was trapped in pine trees. My CA mind could not abide.

Hayduke ⏹️@GWHayduke97

Nope. Augusta to Richmond. Nothing else comes close. Just a monotonous tunnel of monotonous trees the whole way. The trees are boring, mostly just endless loblolly pines, and you can't see any of the actual landscape or countryside.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@MattLasky The most frustrating deals I'm seeing: Fixed rate deals, w/underperforming properties, and retail equity is slowly being transferred to the pref provider, all while the GP earns their AUM

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Matt Lasky (maxxing)@MattLasky·2d

@chasesfish With a lot of floating debt, etc

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Matt Lasky (maxxing)@MattLasky·2d

Chatter on all sides regarding CRE GP behavior as a steward of capital. We run a non-insignificant amount of retail capital. For years we consistently heard, well this GP is underwriting a 20% IRR, what could go wrong and if things do, we probably hit a 5% return. FALSE! cont

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@MattLasky It's so bad. Max leverage out on assets, then hidden leverage to retail via institutional pref sitting. Giving away 100% of free cash flow to others day one while promising double digit returns.

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Matt Lasky (maxxing)@MattLasky·2d

This basically said it all to us. Limited to no risk premium coupled with near historically low cap rates is a recipe for disaster. Anyone who says otherwise probably doesn't understand how rate caps work and shouldn't be running OPM Extra credit to those who understand a cap rate move at lower cap rates isn't linear loss of value to those at higher cap rates.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@sentdefender No one is talking about those nice offshore lines out the back

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OSINTdefender@sentdefender·2d

Daylight reveals the extent of damage caused to Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) and the surrounding area of Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, following last night’s massive explosion of Blue Origin’s New Glenn during a Static Fire Test. Significant fire damage to the launch pad, tower, and other infrastructure can be seen - which will undoubtably require months of repairs - while debris from New Glenn lay scattered around LC-36. Photo credit: @asherbphotos @tweetsiphotos @LaunchHeavenX

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@OurBank3 Finally rewarded shareholders to an extent x.com/accesswirenews…

ACCESS Newswire@AccesswireNews

$CCNB Coastal Carolina Bancshares, Inc. and Beacon Holding Company, Inc. Jointly Announce a Merger of Equals to Create ... accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/ba…

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Our Bank@OurBank3·6 Kas

Given that Laurence Bolchoz diluted his original $10 investors w/ a $7.50 raise in 2017, recently opened a branch in Orangeburg, it shouldn’t surprise that instead of rewarding $CCNB holders w/ an $18-$20 sale he’s leaning toward diluting them again. 💀☠️🪓💣

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

Explains that stock move today. Combined company should uplist.

Timyan Bank Alert@TimyanBankAlert

Better link to $CCNB $BCON merger finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks…

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@Im_goodthanks @huck_tuah Rented a house in far north mp for a couple of years. Still love going back through there and eating for a few days. But suburban driving hell vs lazy beach island in Florida, give me the breach island

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J H@Im_goodthanks·2d

@chasesfish @huck_tuah Same. Almost pulled the trigger on MP, great schools beautiful area nice communities great food. But the infrastructure just can’t accommodate the growth.

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Kit Huckabee@huck_tuah·3d

Nuke it and start over

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@BoringBiz_ Quit, go get a nice condo in Tampa and start dating full time. Not difficult

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Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·2d

Finance professional earning $800K/yr with a net worth of $3.5M at 34 feels burnt out Mentions that work has been hurting personal life and ability to find significant other Tough advice to hear, but after a certain point, money is no longer a solution to your problems Life is simply too short to live an unhappy life. If you find your work cutting into your personal life and causing burn out, it is time to walk away or scale back. This is especially true if you are already worth $3.5M at 34. This guy has already made it. He has every ability to walk away from a stressful life and still live comfortably. Don’t let the pursuit of more money abstain you from living a life worth living

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·2d

@shortbus_ace @_Castlerock_ Will some people / business move? Yes. Is it the same scale + management incompetency as Truist? No way

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Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein@shortbus_ace·2d

@chasesfish @_Castlerock_ Combo of HBAN/CADE + SNV/PNFP is creating a lot of opportunities across multiple states in the SE

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Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein@shortbus_ace·3d

the value-creation move right now for Southeast community and smaller regional banks is taking advantage of the disruption from super-regionals. go take their talent and customers who are being left behind and let others be distracted by M&A. just make sure you manage your balance sheet correctly and this may be a once in a decade opportunity (at least since Truist)

Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks

Southeast banks could use some consolidating. Own banks in the growing Southeast.

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Robert Chase@chasesfish·3d

@Hunterjones