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@rohanpaul_ai 📈 Anthropic, the safe-AI company, now grabs 73% of new budgets; just 10 weeks ago, it was 50/50. DeepValue always tracks these shifts early.

A massive shift happening right now towards Anthropic. Anthropic is grabbing over 73% of the budget from businesses picking up AI tools for the first time. It is a huge jump from just 10 weeks ago when they were neck and neck with OpenAI at 50% each. Back in early December, OpenAI was the one on top with 60% of the spending compared to 40% for Anthropic.

@GlobalMktObserv Rising CDX spreads often tighten corporate liquidity before equities react. Keeping an eye on refinancing costs and high-yield stress could highlight early market vulnerability.

US credit markets are flashing a rare warning signal: The Credit Default Swap Index (CDX) has surged to a 9-month high. Credit default swaps measure the cost of protecting against corporate debt defaults, so a rising CDX signals growing fear of companies failing to pay back their debt. Over the last 20 years, every time this happened while the S&P 500 was still within -5% of its all-time highs, a bear market or a correction followed, according to SentimenTrader analysis. In 2007, the S&P 500 dropped -57% as the Great Financial Crisis unfolded. In 2015, the index fell ~-15% while in 2022, the market plunged -25%. The current spike is being driven by the Iran War, rising recession fears, and growing anxiety over AI disruption in private credit and leveraged loan markets. However, the sample size is just 3, so this should be treated as a signal worth considering but not a guarantee. History says the credit market sees trouble before the stock market does.

@trengriffin The biggest technological shifts aren’t fully captured in earnings or GDP. They reshape efficiency at a system level.

AI is like electricity. AI is now or will be in everything in some form. Almost all gain from lighting was consumer surplus not included in GDP. Research by Nordhaus showed the cost of lighting fell by over 99.97% between 1800 and 1992, with the labor required for 1,000 lumen-hours dropping from hours to mere fractions of a second.

@chrishlad A large market with clear inefficiencies. The opportunity is obvious; the challenge is earning trust at scale.

We raised a $27M Series A to replace the spreadsheets and human duct tape behind $100 trillion in global assets. Fund administration is the invisible backbone of private equity and venture capital - and it’s broken. Why? Financial data is scattered, stale, and locked inside legacy providers. Books take forever to close. Basic questions about your own fund take days to answer. So we rebuilt the general ledger, waterfall engine, investor portal, and portfolio management from scratch. One single source of truth for your firm. Our AI agents read emails, propose journal entries, and extract portfolio updates in seconds. Our CPAs review every output. Today, we administer $15 billion in assets - and we’re just getting started. Every fund CFO keeps getting asked: how will you adopt AI? Now you have an answer. Run your firm in real-time with @hanoverpark. –- Excited to partner with Jake Saper at @emergencecap @peterjhebert at Lux, @chadbyers/@pratyushbuddiga at Susa and CFOs at the largest private equity firms to forge this future.

@PronkDaniel When price follows fundamentals, not sentiment, It usually signals a healthier trend.

$META's P/OCF is 13.5 today. For perspective, this is the same P/OCF META was trading for on July 10, 2023. The share price was ~$294 at that time. This means that META's performance since then has been entirely driven by fundamentals growing, and not multiple expansion.

@pitdesi Price is reacting to a narrative. The business will ultimately be defined by usage, not anecdotes.

Figma got crushed on this one :/ Anecdotally seeing more companies task design work to the product team already.

@patientinvestor Price has moved. The business likely hasn’t, at least not to the same degree. That gap is where analysis matters.

I can't believe Visa is now trading at 22x earnings! $V

@burrytracker One of the best portfolios ever built… Destroyed by one variable: character.

Sam Bankman-Fried had the best venture portfolio in history What SBF bought vs. what it's worth today: • Anthropic: $500M → $30.4B (+5,980%) • Robinhood: ~$546M → $5B (+816%) • Solana: 60M SOL at ~$8 → $5.3B at $89 (+1,012%) If he did nothing illegal, he'd be worth $40 billion today Instead he's now he's inmate #37244-510

@slow_developer This looks less like scaling… and more like eliminating unnecessary thinking steps.

how is this even possible? gpt-5.4 pro is using far fewer tokens and costing much less overall than gpt-5.4 xhigh either this is a mistake, or openai discovered an efficiency paradigm -- which could simply be a good system that cleans up training data to only the high-quality stuff

@KobeissiLetter Retail is chasing safety after the move. Institutions usually position themselves before the narrative spreads. Timing asset Always.

Wall Street is selling gold and silver to retail investors: Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought +$70 billion in gold ETFs. These purchases have more than TRIPLED over the last 6 months. Over the same period, institutional investors have sold -$1 billion with outflows accelerating in late January after gold prices crashed -20% in just 3 days. Meanwhile, silver ETFs have recorded +$10 billion in retail purchases over the last year. Over the same time period, institutions have sold -$200 million. Retail investors are all-in on precious metals.

@GlobalMktObserv Interesting-when fear is this high, history shows the market can turn quickly. Curious how everyone is positioning for potential relief rallies

‼️Investors are paying a record premium for crash protection on US stocks: The VIX skew, a measure of how much more investors pay for extreme crash protection vs. standard hedges, is up to ~33, approaching the all-time high of ~35. This means investors are paying a historic premium for tail-risk protection, or insurance against an extreme market drop. The spread has nearly doubled since the start of 2026, indicating a sharp acceleration in demand for crash insurance. This comes as the Iran War and private credit concerns continue to drive demand for downside protection to extreme levels. However, when fear reaches these extremes, it has historically marked turning points, as the exhaustion of forced selling and hedge unwinding can trigger sharp rallies. Is the market set to calm for some time?

@RickRieder 38% up, 38% down-classic example of why looking under the hood matters. Curious which sectors are driving the extremes?

CIO Chart of the Week: While equity indices are holding in reasonably well amidst market stress, the more important market story is under the hood. There is meaningful dispersion across constituents beneath the surface, reflecting a market that is quickly separating durable growers from more challenged business models. In periods of uncertainty, correctly determining the winners and losers matters more than ever, and that’s a key setup we’re watching into 2026.

@ServoWealth Nothing wakes you up faster than a decade of flat returns. Diversifying into Small Cap Value can be a simple but powerful move

The scariest thing about investing isn’t bear markets. It’s “lost decades.” For the 16yrs thru 1981 and the 13yrs thru 2012, the US stock market had no real returns. Cumulative, including dividends. Thats an average of almost a decade and a half. A portfolio can survive a bad year or two. Not a bad decade or two. Fortunately the answer is simple: Small Cap Value.

@KobeissiLetter $80B sold in a month is huge. Systematic funds can move markets fast, especially amid geopolitical tension like that of Iran

Systematic funds are aggressively selling global equities: Systematic strategies, which include CTAs, risk parity, and volatility-control funds, have sold -$80 billion in global equities over the last month, according to Goldman Sachs. Over the last week, this was particularly driven by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), the algorithm-driven funds that buy and sell based on price trends. As a result, systematic positioning in US equities is down to $180.9 billion, the lowest since July. These funds are now expected to sell another -$70 billion in world equities over the next week and -$100 billion over the next month. US markets are expected to take the largest amount, with -$36 billion in projected sales. Systematic pressures are shifting amid the Iran War.

@MarketMike Oil rises hurt airlines, so patience pays. The real opportunity comes once oil tops out

Everyone is watching oil. I'm watching this. Oil ripped. Airlines got crushed. Jet fuel is one of their biggest costs, when crude spikes like this, the market reprices airlines fast. Now the question is when does oil top out? Because that's when airlines can get interesting.

@mastersinvest History shows disruption creates opportunity. 📊 Agriculture lost 8M jobs (1910–1970), but new industries gained 46M -> 5x return on displacement. AI is the next wave; creative destruction may shrink some roles, but new growth awaits. #TechTrends #LaborMarket #DeepValueX

‘Will AI Lead to Mass Unemployment?’ Latest from Coatue.. ‘AI will undoubtedly eliminate some tasks, but history suggests it will also create entirely new opportunities. We looked past the AI “doomer” headlines to examine the history of creative destruction. From 1910 to 1970, the agriculture segment shed more than 8m jobs, while employment in newer industries grew by 46m over the same period.’ ‘In fact, 60% of the jobs that exist today did not exist in 1940 — not in spite of technological change, but because of it.’ coatue.com/c/takes/will-a…

@GlobalMktObserv A sharp drop in white-collar openings highlights ongoing structural shifts in the labor market. 📉 Consulting, tech, and finance often lead trends; this signals broader softening ahead. #LaborMarket #ProfessionalServices #MarketTrends

🚨The US white-collar RECESSION is getting worse: Job openings in the professional and business services sector fell to ~4.0 per 100 employees, the lowest since the 2020 CRISIS. This is down from a peak of ~10 in 2022, a drop of nearly -60%. The rate is now below pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019, when the labor market was considered resilient, Professional and business services include consulting, legal, technology, and finance sectors that typically lead broader labor market trends. When white-collar hiring slows this sharply, the rest of the job market usually follows. Expect more weakness in the US job market.

@Quant_Kurtis Powerful example! Tools like Claude amplify execution, but the real alpha comes from the human insight guiding it. DeepValue often emphasizes combining tech with thoughtful strategy

Claude Cowork has increased my productivity by 10x. This is just one example... Last week I was reading this academic paper called Dynamic Factor Allocation via Momentum-Based Regime Switching that was posted 3 days before that. The idea was interesting so I ask Claude to design software around this idea. But I don't stop there. I take it further. Not just normalized factor momentum vs. the market, but also absolute momentum. Then I combine them. And I apply this to fixed income, sectors and global markets. I create a backtest engine where you can customize allocation to each sleeve, keep top momentum funds in each sleeve, dynamic weighting of each sleeve and more. 60 minutes after reading new research I have built a tool to systematically backtest and build portfolios around the concept. No, that's incorrect. Taking the idea and building on it in meaningful ways....inside an hour! Claude is not just some passing fad. It is a game-changer. You shouldn't be afraid of Claude stealing your job. It is a highly skilled worker but it also needs an insightful and creative CEO to manage and direct it. However, if you fail to embrace Claude, you should be afraid of the guy next to you who is 10x-ing his productivity with it.