Biotech C Lin

SGL Carbon SE (ETR: SGL): The Last Unpriced Node in NVIDIA’s 800V Power Semiconductor Supply Chain as a physical bottleneck Full analysis using SERENITY strategy @aleabitoreddit open.substack.com/pub/biotechcli…

@golden_pan1 老师真是宝藏👍

欢迎订阅查看更多完整解析，里面有更多 ticker、KOL 原文链接，还有接下来几天要看的热议事件。每天5分钟看清推上被热议的股票都是怎么被讨论的 完整日报里还有： - 中东局势怎么推高油价和 10 年期美债 - SpaceX IPO 会不会抽走美股科技股流动性 - 6/10 CPI 和 $ORCL 财报对 AI 链条的影响 themarketbrew.com/twitter-digest/

6/8 过去 24 小时，X 上最热的几只美股： $NVDA $MRVL $MU $INTC $AMD 来看看他们是怎么被讨论的吧👇

@JackMan724444 Yup my 38% delta was pretty spot on but will lose money on my bullspread bet unless the management decide to sell the company. I guess they intend to raise instead of sell. Longs holding shares will need hold longer until they got the label for the reward. Tough luck.

@BiotechCLin Extraordinary Data. Never dreamed of a 40 delta. Such bad luck on some folks getting cancer. Which had nothing to do with OBE. Stock would be $200 right now if that didn’t happen with the efficacy of OBE $ABVX

$ABVX I am probably the closest one on X for the efficacy prediction. Molecularly, miR-124 is a known tumors suppressor not an oncogene yet two cancer cases show up in 50mg. There is just no way to predict bad luck like this. Biotech investing is hard for sure.

@bc1dml @aleabitoreddit Same guess!

@aleabitoreddit 8012.T ？

At $NVDA GTC/Computex in Taipei: I think we’ll hear about the next AI bottleneck. That’s owned by a .6 P/B potato farming company in Japan, with a 180 year history. Their owner cooks those potatoes in night markets for 160 yen a piece. But that same potato farming equipment used to grow potatoes with optimal sunlight. Is now required for optical alignment requirements for CPO. And their unique cooking technique is mandatory to address thermal requirements for Rubin. Can anyone guess?

@aleabitoreddit 8012

@ParadisLabs The last unpriced node is SGL carbon for power semi.

Researching the power semis theme is fun: Legacy 54V has become a bottleneck. $NVDA's 800 VDC is the optimal architecture for next gen power distribution. For 800 VDC: Looking at smaller MC names like: 1. $AOSL @ $1.36B - cover full 800VDC conversion chain w/ announced 800VDC support. 2. $WOLF @ $2.87B - indirect exposure via transformer front end. 3. $POWI @ $4.68B - collaborating w/ Nvidia on the main stages of 800VDC racks. 4. $NVTS @ $6.30B - pure-play GaN + SiC. Only one of these names to be selected for Nvidia's 800VDC Kyber/Rubin Ultra rack. $VICR are another name, but feel like a lot of pricing-in has happened over the last ~1 year. I personally already have large-cap exposure via: 1. $IFX (Infineon) - current favourite: broadest grid-to-core play + named Nvidia 800VDC partner. 2. $STM (STMicroelectronics) - complete SiC supply chain. For disclosure, I'll likely rotate out soon to fund smaller MC buys since their SiC book is mainly auto/industrial + the data center slice is still small. Will look to take positions in smaller MC names for more supercharged returns. So feel free to recommend any other relevant names. And will ofc post up any research along the way.

感謝大叔美股筆記@Unclestocknotes 轉發英文版本，讓我有動力做了一份中文版本的SGL Carbon 研究報告。 希望中文圈的朋友會喜歡我的投資論點。 SGL Carbon (ETR: SGL)：NVIDIA 800V 供應鏈中，最後一個未被定價的關鍵節點。 全文在以下連結： open.substack.com/pub/biotechcli…

In several months AI will say SiC grade graphite from SGL carbon is the bottleneck not just SiC powder. Mark my words asking this very same question next year $SGL SGL carbon will show up. The more I read my analysis the more I feel I need to FOMO it.

@Stocky43550713 @aktien_max Thank your for sharing my analysis. I think SGL carbon will blow off in 2027-2030.

@aktien_max Ich habe auch im Bereich von 400$ Call-Positionen 500$ Dez.27 aufgebaut. Was hältst du aktuell von SGL Carbon. Bin gestern darauf aufmerksam geworden und habe eine kleine Position gekauft bevor sie gestiegen ist. Hier mal ein Substack: biotechclin.substack.com/p/sgl-carbon-s…

Ich schaue mir gerade den $MSFT Chart an. −31% vom Allzeithoch. In 8 Monaten. Kein Skandal. Keine schlechten Zahlen. Keine Pleite. Nur Angst. Das sind die Momente für die man Kapital bereit hält. Marc hat zwischen Februar und Mai nachgekauft. 👉 Hast du die Delle genutzt?

@JenPorcelli @avidresearch I have no plan to post more on BHVN until obesity week for T-alpha. Again I think your company has great science and I do respect the team still working to create therapy for patients when most of you could have retired already with the Nurtec buyout.

@BiotechCLin @avidresearch You created a Twitter account solely to track Biohaven? That's dedication! Attending any upcoming sell-side conferences? Happy to meet!

So do we like $BHVN after R&D day?

@JenPorcelli @avidresearch The only issue is getting diluted 20 times VS 5 times to get to 40B market cap is a huge difference. Retails will rather buy the catalyst rumor and sell the news when everyone knows infinite dilution is coming. I will not hold onto Biohaven but will trade on the science.

@JenPorcelli @avidresearch open.substack.com/pub/biotechcli… I think know more about your company than any of those sell-side analysts. The one that says Opakalim has little brain exposure hence no efficacy for MDD and CNS AEs is a total joke. I am very certain BHVN will be a 40B company one day.

NVIDIA just published their official 800V DC Architecture partner list. SiC+GaN makers confirmed: ✓ Infineon $IFNNY (SiC + GaN) ✓ Onsemi $ON (SiC) ✓ STMicro $STM (SiC + GaN) ✓ Rohm $6963.T (SiC + GaN) ✓ Navitas $NVTS (GaN) All need graphite consumables SGL Carbon $SGL

@STL_Biotech Biotech is all about liquidity. With AI semi stocks and upcoming space X ipo sucking up all the hot money, biotech companies with massive burn rate will be forced to dilute at depressed price before seeing the next catalyst making people less willing to hold. They wont listen.

To be clear, I DO think some of their pipe is going to work out (not the nonsense in these slides) I just think the gains may accrue to a whole new class of shareholders who waltz in 2-4 years later after I've been diluted to hell and make 0 return. $BHVN

@daichi888 Thank you if you think it makes sense feel free to repost it.

@BiotechCLin good one appreciate that you took your time to write this! will check your substack out now

SGL Carbon SE (ETR: SGL): The Last Unpriced Node in NVIDIA’s 800V Power Semiconductor Supply Chain as a physical bottleneck Full analysis using SERENITY strategy @aleabitoreddit open.substack.com/pub/biotechcli…

@daichi888 @maxddc Thank you !

@maxddc @BiotechCLin ty for the ping, this looks super interesting

$SGL How did it move from 4.6 to 5.5 in less than 24h? I don’t even have any following. SGL carbon SE is a physical bottleneck most upstream of SiC power semiconductor chain. I should have loaded up before publishing it :(

@maxddc Appreciate you like my work :)

@BiotechCLin I dont think so. The market is too deep. I dont think your report will move marcet cap of 600 mio :D And you already wrote its a 5x thesis so why is 5%-10% change that bad? Still crazy cheap. Relax.

@maxddc I kinda regret publishing this article now seeing it went up from 4.6 to 5.5 in less than 24 hour. I am perplexed that it didn’t get much read at all but it’s moving the needle.

@BiotechCLin 2027-2030 I mean

@maxddc I am hoping to buy the dip and accumulate over the year since the AI revenue is not coming in until end of 2027.

@BiotechCLin I own it too. Follow. Whats your port?