Jonathan Brown

31.4K posts

Jonathan Brown

Jonathan Brown

@Broonjunior

Advocate at Faculty of Advocates

Glasgow, Scotland Beigetreten Nisan 2016
1.2K Folgt4.7K Follower
Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@OvalDigest I didn’t see anything tonight that should be worrying Leinster.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@rugby_ap I thought he was generally poor. Conditions were terrible.
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A-P@rugby_ap·
Angle of the clean. What’s even the point
A-P tweet media
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
If others are to be made to step up to fill the security gap left by a US withdrawal it seems quite likely that existing moves away from dollar hegemony will intensify quite quickly.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
This is interesting, though I doubt that any grand strategic thinking emanates from Trump himself. The one point that is missed is that the rest of the world does pay for all of this via the status of the US dollar as the reserve currency, which finances unlimited deficits.
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@DungsauPing No. 1 son is heading down this afternoon. Apparently watching a short race requires extensive pre and post match scooping in very expensive riverside bars ending ultimately in an after party in some nightclub in Clapham. A tense budgetary negotiation may go down to the wire.
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E. Harvie Ward
E. Harvie Ward@DungsauPing·
In London to watch the Boat Race. I think my shoes are not sensible enough. Mon Oxford.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@NickyZog Grid integration with the Republic and no integration with the UK mainland grid.
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Nicky
Nicky@NickyZog·
Why is energy devolved to Northern Ireland, but not Scotland?
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E. Harvie Ward
E. Harvie Ward@DungsauPing·
Glasgow Airport is better than Edinburgh. It's not even close.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@rcolvile If it’s any consolation I was in Oxford last week and bad as the roads are, Glasgow’s are even worse.
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Robert Colvile
Robert Colvile@rcolvile·
Every time I drive down to see my Mum in Oxfordshire I am stunned by the scale of the potholes. Especially on the main roads around Oxford itself.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@boswelltoday Very very ill advised to be saying this sort of stuff before sentencing.
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Bruce Bowman
Bruce Bowman@boswelltoday·
Normally people go to ground after being convicted of such things. Not Brian. No siree. Apparently, the whole conviction is a ‘huge mistake’. ‘Even the Sheriff couldn’t understand it’ No shame whatsoever.
REDUXX@reduxx

A transgender political campaigner and activist in Scotland has pleaded guilty to creating AI-generated sexual images of children. Amelia Connolly, 23, has since told his social media followers that the conviction was a misunderstanding. He is set to be sentenced in May.

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Barbara Rich
Barbara Rich@BarbaraRich_law·
@MarcGoldberg111 If the defendants’ lawyers thought there was a risk of actual or apparent bias because of the judge’s personal views and associations they would have asked him to recuse himself? Did they? I haven’t read that they did so
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Marc Goldberg
Marc Goldberg@MarcGoldberg111·
They’re attacking a Jewish judge. Their reason for doing so is his participation in the Jewish community. If this demonisation continues it will either be the undoing of the Anti Zionist Movement or of the Jews in Britain.
Anti-zionist Movement@azm_org_uk

Judge was Daniel Sternberg. Sternberg is a board member of the movement for Reform Judaism, which elects Rabbis for the Board of Deputies of British Jews. Reform Judaism’s website shows clear links to ‘Israel’. Sternberg previously dismissed a case against Tommy Robinson.

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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@NiecyOKeeffe Carrigtwohill? I’m reliably informed that people who asked at the pharmacist in Midleton were directed to Carrigtwohill if they wanted that sort of thing.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@BertDalziel People with that sort of cash have baseline expectations about living standards so they’re not living anywhere cheap, they’re not having kids stacked up in shared bedrooms, they’re participating fully in leisure, sport etc, they’re going on holiday. It just becomes prohibitive.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@BertDalziel I think this is true. Even very high earning people hit a ceiling. There’s nursery/childcare etc. If they are thinking about private education that’s now £20k per child per year for day school even in the provinces. Housing, cars, and everything nice becomes brutally expensive.
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Bertha Dalziel (high value man)
Also - and this is a theory of mind failure so dense you could circle planets round it - *most men* do not want more than approx 2 kids, 3 at most because that is going to way more expense and hassle *for them*.
Rachel Cohen Booth@rcobooth

The mentality of “let’s make things so bad for women that they drop out of workforce altogether and then just have kids instead” is both stupid and counterproductive And across most counties women who work are more likely to have kids than those not employed

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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@Sam_Dumitriu @stuartmwrites @edwest @hogster Perhaps not the most significant failing here but the one that really cut through with me was the fact that the university just threw out that poor girl’s belongings. It reminded me of an observation that the default setting of large publicly funded organisations is vindictive.
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Sam Dumitriu
Sam Dumitriu@Sam_Dumitriu·
@edwest @hogster The institutional failures around this are remarkable. The sort of thing that wouldn’t pass muster as fiction because it’s just unbelievable so many people would behave so badly.
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Ed West
Ed West@edwest·
Latest post. On the Nottingham murders and the failures of the British state
Ed West tweet media
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@is_glasgow The inside is very good too. Central atrium and lots of original features. It’s really quite deep and a good bit bigger than it looks from the front.
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Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown@Broonjunior·
@thomasforth I’d be interested in the impact of high construction costs (and related shortages of skilled contractors) on this. Lots of fairly obvious development sites without any apparent planning/regulatory obstacles and often with good connectivity, but not much happening.
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Tom Forth
Tom Forth@thomasforth·
Since I'm on a roll, here's another thing I reckon economists --- especially British economists --- are a bit wrong about. I think skills, especially via education, are much less important to prosperity than connectivity via transport. tomforth.co.uk/citysizeandpro…
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