American Statecraft Program

Has Trump ushered in a new era of foreign policymaking, or beneath the bluster, is it business as usual? In our latest newsletter, we asked @CarnegieEndow scholars: What sets Trump's foreign policy apart this term? See more – and subscribe for our latest foreign policy analysis! – in the Next Generation Statecraft newsletter (link below).

NEW: Cuba may be facing its toughest test in decades. But what does the United States actually want from the island, and can pressure deliver it? @CChivvis with @MJ_Busta on Pivotal States: youtube.com/watch?v=9tb8H4…

.@CarnegieEndow @ceipstatecraft Is this Israel's war or America's. Tune into my conversation with three former US Ambassadors @DanielbShapiro @DanKurtzer and Yael Lempert. Listen to it here: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/carne…

Pleased to join @BDUTT again to discuss the mounting costs of the Iran war. youtube.com/live/FW4RXd_zm… via @YouTube

How is President Trump approaching China, and what can his administration learn from the one before? @CChivvis, author (with @mrworldwide1701) of “Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy,” a new @CEIPStatecraft report, hosts @RushDoshi, @JulianGewirtz, and Laura Rosenberger to discuss and mark the launch of the report. RSVP: carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/03…

EVENT: Did Biden get China right? Join @CChivvis, @RushDoshi , @JulianGewirtz , and @rosenbergerlm to explore Trump's approach to China, lessons from the Biden admin, and what comes next. 📆 Tuesday, March 24 | 11:00 AM ET | Live Online carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/03…

When the war with Iran eventually ends, don’t expect transformational change in the Middle East, argue @aarondmiller2 and @DanKurtzer. Read in @nytopinion: nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opi…

.@CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft @nytimes With the inestimable @dankurtzer The Middle East hasn't been kind to transformation peddlers. Keep your expectations real after this war ends nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opi…

.@carnegieendow @ceipstatecraft Just had a master class on the US-Israeli relationship and the Iran war conducted by 3 extraordinary former US Ambassadors @DanKurtzer @danielbshapiro and Yael Lempert. Watch it here:youtube.com/watch?v=-XxtRN…

Thanks to @aarondmiller2 for hosting me, @DanKurtzer, and Yael Lempert for a lively discussion on War, Peace, and the Future of the U.S.-Israeli Relationship. @CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft @AtlanticCouncil @ACMideast @MiddleEastInst youtube.com/watch?v=-XxtRN…

Behold the National Security Strategy from less than four months ago: “The days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was. It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment.” “Conflict remains the Middle East’s most troublesome dynamic, but there is today less to this problem than headlines might lead one to believe. Iran—the region’s chief destabilizing force—has been greatly weakened by Israeli actions since October 7, 2023, and President Trump’s June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, which significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program.” “We should encourage and applaud reform when and where it emerges organically, without trying to impose it from without. The key to successful relations with the Middle East is accepting the region, its leaders, and its nations as they are while working together on areas of common interest.”

.@CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft Join me and three former US Ambassadors @DanielBShapiro @dankurtzer and Yael Lempert to discuss the Iran war and the future of the US-Israeli relationship March 18 10-11 EDT. Register here: carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/03…

“Trump takes a clearly different stance toward major powers than he does everyone else,” says @stephenwertheim. The president shows deference to strongmen and attacks those he sees as weak. Stephen explained “the punch down doctrine” for @nytimes: nytimes.com/2026/03/11/us/…

I told @ABCNewsLive that the Iran War has entered the zone of pain, in which each side seeks less to achieve specific objectives than to inflict costs on the enemy. abcnews.com/video/13101289…

@CChivvis and Dalia Dassa Kaye sat down in December to discuss the enduring tensions between the United States and Iran. Despite strategies to maintain stability, the risk of war with Iran remained ever-present. Check out their full conversation: youtube.com/watch?v=tJclGr…

Strong allies are a key reservoir of American power in a world where the United States competes economically, technologically, and politically with other major powers such as China. The key is evaluating allied capacity correctly.

As @CChivvis and I warned last year, data centers are sitting ducks for attacks at a time when the risk from cheap drones is intensifying: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…

.@CarnegieEndow @ceipstatecraft Join me Wednesday March 18 10-11 am EDT for what promises to be a fascinating conversation on the US-Israel relationship. @danielbshapiro @dankurtzer Yael Lempert carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/03…

I told @nytimes that Trump practices the "punch down doctrine": Bully small countries he thinks he can dominate. Where he can't, try to accommodate.

The U.S. “should not risk building the digital future on a geopolitical fault line.” In July, @CChivvis and @SamWinterLevy warned that the Gulf is the wrong home for critical AI infrastructure: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…