Tim McCollough

"Are We in an AI Bubble?" Part of the reason the market can't decide on an answer is that thinking of AI as "artificial intelligence" isn't a helpful way to understand what AI means for us. AI is actionable intel. AI is info that helps us get sh*t done (Hat tip @tobi). AI is a tool to get more sh*t done and to get sh*t done, better. AI, then, represents both a higher quantity and a higher quality of production for the economy. But increasingly, AI is skipping the actionable intel step and just getting sh*t done, itself: * It'll write code. * It'll create a website. * It'll create an ad. * It'll place an ad. * It'll flag fraud. * It'll rotate a panel. * It'll irrigate farmland. * It'll launch a missile? And that's what AI is capable of today....

@JoeTegtmeyer which is the matte-wrapped and which is glossy gold production version? production = darker gold?

Cybercabs are multiplying at Giga Texas today, with some driving on the EOL test track, & a great opportunity to see a matte wrapped & production glossy gold versions side by side … great way to see the difference up close! About 40-50 Cybercabs all over the site today, including some testing out the factory exit to the W EOL facility routes, many of the prototypes at the Crash Testing facility today (possibly for recycling) and more! This short video clips show the test driving & comparison between the older and production versions!

@travisraxelrod, an investment from Tesla into TBC should happen.

you had to call 'em revenue streams?

Economics of Kentucky Derby winner is next level: “Top stallions then breed 100-200x per year, turning a single elite horse into a multi-million dollar annual revenue stream.” Breeders cap supply and ensure pricing power through a rule that someone has to witness natural mating.

@BostonDynamics i just want to see humanoid robots digging ditches, not doing yoga

Balancing commercial goals and robotics research can be tricky, but with Atlas we're making it work.

@emollick telling an AI to think like a human expert....

A reminder that telling the AI that it is an expert in a field is no longer helpful in making the AI better at that field.

I'd pay to see updates on the Tesla Semi backlog over time 📈

@xdNiBoR She doesn't/won't care. This is a corollary of @robkhenderson's "luxury beliefs": Bad elites of society support (or in this case, enact) bad policies to raise their own social score at the cost of the plebs. (In this case, Delaware plebs.)

Do you think she realizes the severity of her mistake?

@DKThomp +2 trust points

Fair nuance. (I still think the overall trend is notable.) x.com/typesfast/stat…

Coinbase is the latest tech company—including Block, and Salesforce—to announce big layoffs and cite AI coding productivity as a driver. I've attached those companies' recent stock performance bc I think it is ... relevant. But a few things can be true at once: 1) AI is v good at coding 2) There's also a lot of "AI-washing" of layoffs that were coming anyway 3) Macro history shows that tech displacement tends to accelerate during downturns, so it makes some sense that embattled companies would be the first to have to do more with less

I think I disagree: teaching 40 languages courses (from beginning to advanced) is more complex than teaching 1 math course (from beginner to advanced) That's my point: 1 math course scales to 1 billion people in a way no one language course can (well, i guess English is close... but the other 39 languages, no way). priorities should be, imo: 1) math 2) English 3) chess 4) music 5-44) all the other languages

@DriverlessR @LuisvonAhn I think he would most probably love to be able to go full speed with math, but it's far more complex than language regarding AI tutoring. Well, let's see today's update on that.

@DriverlessR After reviewing this interview with Luis, my primary takeaway is that there is nothing new on the horizon—which is exactly as expected. Even some delay in math, maybe: "our math product, we're still working on it, but I think within a couple years, my hope is that it'll be a really good after-school thing that if you're struggling in math" Regarding math, it is important to consider that the subject requires a tutor, chess and languages don't. wired.com/story/the-big-…

@DrewCohenMoney I want to know how much time is spent on Netflix "browsing"-- its version of doom-scrolling. Worst nights are when you just watch 37 one-minute previews and then actually watch nothing.

Very interesting stat Whereas tv streaming platforms like Apple+ (imo) attract viewers with intent to watch a specific show, Netflix attracts viewers who don’t know what they want to watch. This is actually a better place to be in terms of the hierarchy of consumer preferences because “entertain me” is a more durable preference than “I want to watch Your Friends & Neighbors”

@BastianelliLore 😆😭

What do you expect from earnings today? $DUOL

@LluisFondeStock #1 for me = math app * significantly larger market than languages (math is the universal language) * a groundswell of parents will switch to it (word of mouth) if it really helps kids learn (Family Plan) * duolingo, in best case scenario, is world's best math turor

$DUOL What am I going to scrutinize today? Only deep fundamentals. Average Number of Words Spoken per Subscriber: 'It’s a really good metric because we can move it and because it exactly captures what we want people to do, which is to speak more.' (Q2 2025). Statistical updates. Video Call and other features specifically designed to provide more interactive speaking practice. Adoption, engagement, insights, and statistics. Deployment to the Super tier (Video Call) and free tier (other features). Proficiency users (Score 129 Content): Luis in a LinkedIn post on 4/23/26: '...A2. That’s enough to get by as a tourist, but it’s not enough to change your life. ...you can reach a level of proficiency that unlocks real economic opportunity. For millions of people, that changes everything.' Any updates on actions or statistics related to this type of user. Current User Retention Rate (CURR): A vital internal metric (historically around 80%) that predicts the probability of a user returning the next day. Any effects related to speaking features or Chess? Chess DAUs and MAUs: Last reported at over 7 million in less than a year. Results from the big marketing campaign in India. Math App Momentum: Management expects to have the 'best tutor app for K-12 math' this year. Internal research studies: Duolingo can deploy them at a marginal cost. Updates related to users speaking more. DAUs, MAUs, Bookings, FCF/share, and buybacks... All these metrics are a result of doing a world-class job, per Antonio's framework and the items mentioned above.

@paulg @pitdesi Crummy policies are ubiquitous. YC is helping make more products and better products, but the lowest and best-hanging fruit is our crummy policies, which are derived from our crummy governments, which are derived from our crummy leaders. How's YC helping on this?

@pitdesi And you know it's not even a deliberate policy choice. It's just because the people who make these rules are innumerate. They wouldn't even understand what your tweet is about.

Tax or benefit cliffs are almost always stupid policy, they punish people for earning or paying slightly more, creating irrational incentives and unfair outcomes Unsurprisingly, San Francisco tax code is completely full of them

If Semi does significantly reduce operating costs, expect the price tag to increase. I'm waiting to see how long the wait times are. I imagine we'll get to 2 yrs long delays. And then longer even, because if your competitor is taking out serious costs, you better do it, too!

@GavinSBaker Legendary CFO. Bad CEO (for Nextdoor). She's the Wade Phillips of business. (great defensive coordinator, bad head coach)

Sarah is a Hall of Fame CFO. Right up there with Colette Kress, David Zinsner and Amy Hood. Susan Li might join the club, early but off to an epic start. Who am I missing? This was off the cuff. wsj.com/business/opena…

The Robotaxi fleet graph will be even more fun to watch than the Model 3 production graph from Bloomberg back in 2018. Wow, so much has happened in eight years! Hat tip: @tsrandall + @dean_halford

so much abundance. yes. but how to organize it all? what system of rules governs us? Josh, you and our other best and brightest people, are in tech and business; but by far-- BY SO FAR!-- our world's biggest problem is our cruddy governments. whatever we're doing is obviously not working well enough. at the very least, it can be so much better. Improving gov't is the lowest-hanging fruit with the highest possible ROI. Better gov't exponentiates all of the tech gains. Better gov't retards fewer parts of society. How to improve gov't? Quadrillion-dollar question. Solutions (my personal faves): 1) Nominating system. We should be able to easily nominate our friends and family that we KNOW we trust and are highly capable and strong. Turn this into a game. A bracket. Knock-out tournament. Why can't it be fun? 2) Voting 2.0 Our current voting is fine but it's too simple. Any of the voting upgrades (RCV, approval, or Star voting) lead to more competition in our politics instead being stuck with our two crummy parties. Voters just have to work a teeny bit more on voting day, which... 3) National Election Day Duh. What are we even doing here? Make that Tuesday a nat'l holiday. why can't we have a more glorious and harmonious future?! do we want it? do we need it? are we willing to work hard to get it? if yes, God will help us, right?

the industrial revolution made goods abundant. ai will do the same for services

@compound248 I wonder if Berkshire's former lieutenants have actually over-learned Buffett and Munger's lessons and are trying too hard to emulate them instead of figuring out their own unique ways of finding winners.

“Your job is to say ‘no.’” - Ajit Jain, $BRK’s insurance chief “It is very difficult to recruit people to sit back and do nothing. “You will get bombarded with deals, day in and day out. Your base case is, ‘just say no.’ “Every now and then, you will come across a deal that will hit you with a 2x4 and it will be screaming money. “That’s when you come to me.” Ajit and Greg note that insurance, investing, and capital allocation all share this trait. Personally, I am not worried that Berkshire will lack wisdom or lose its way - I look forward to seeing what comes next.

@CernBasher When Uber revolutionized the taxi market, there was an expansion of the market its applications. Same for robotaxis. Except because the revolution is 10x larger, so will be the market and applications expansion. Cern's example one of many.