GWalker

@glgoodwin22 @LukeGromen I agree. Cost of fuel maybe the last straw but this problem has been brewing for a long time

@LukeGromen True, but they are likely blaming fuel prices ( a real issue for people) for the protests even though discontent has long been brewing based on immigration and other policy/governance issues in Ireland. Maybe fuel and energy will end up being the straw that broke the wests back…

We said if Hormuz stayed close until mid-April, global supply chains were mathematically certain to begin collapsing, including in the US. Right on cue, on April 10👇 Things will rapidly get much worse from here if Hormuz stays closed “What’s the trade?” = Stockpile essentials

@JackFarley96 Worth watching until he quoted news stories from the financial times and NY times. Had to turn it off

Sal's shipping update is excellent. Watching now 🔥

@Jlphelps1 @DA_Stockman Well said. We knocked out 10,000 military sites, crippled their navy, and made our point that we want them to stop terror. They’re entitled to run a peaceful country. If Stockman has a better idea, he should share it with us.

@DA_Stockman That’s an interesting take. Iran shouldn’t be successful as a country? If you can end hostilities, stop funding terrorist. Gain peace in the entire region, then why shouldn’t they grow as a nation?

Let's see. Iran was earning $50 billion per year before the war from oil exports, and under a blanket of sanctions. Now its $100 billion per year sanctions free. Also, the $2 million per ship through Hormuz will generate up to a $90 billion per year of fee income under normal traffic. So what was $50 billion per year of dark money is potentially $150 billion of greenbacks and yuan. Looks like the mullahs have been reading "The Art of the Deal", too.

@James_Duade Great analysis and suggestion. Would love to help find credit providers and teach them why they need to build lending models around tokenized collateral.

I’d love to offer up a test case for your new product development tool… The US ferrous scrap market is heavily fractured and fragmented, but has a notional value of approximately $20-$25 Billion USD a year—with approximately 57-63 million metric tonnes traded a year. While the supply side is heavily fragmented, the major consumers of the ferrous scrap are a cohort of US Steel Makers of medium to large size such as Nucor, Cleveland Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, US Steel, and many other smaller players. usgs.gov/centers/nation… According to the data I was looking at, many of these steel makers have around 20-40% of their assets tied up in inventory, and nearly half of that inventory (at least for EAF steel makers) is typically ferrous or steel scrap. Today the only futures contract on the market is the CME Chicago No. 1 Busheling Ferrous Scrap contract (each contract is 20 metric tonnes)…but this contract is financially settled and based off of a Fast Market price assessment. So just like in LNG, Abaxx could have the opportunity to disrupt the US Steel market by offering a physically delivered scrap futures contract. cmegroup.com/markets/metals… If each Abaxx US Ferrous Scrap contract was 20 metric tonnes, and the total annual market is 57-63 million metric tonnes, then that means a total of 2.85 to 3.15 million contracts a year for the physical market, and at a 50x churn, that could be a total of 142,500,000 to 157,500,000 contracts a year! The CME contract is $3 a side, or $6 a contract, so that means the ferrous contract has a total TAM of $855M to $945M a year if Abaxx could capture the entire market! Furthermore, given how much scrap inventory steel firms hold, this means that in transit digital title could be a god send to them where they can collateralize those scrap contracts. Not to mention that Jules.AI acquired by MineHub already has a foothold with scrap clients in the US selling to steel firms (eg. Schupan & Sons is a current scrap customer of Jules.AI in Kalamazoo Michigan selling predominantly ferrous scrap). Lastly, a US ferrous scrap contract could just be the start, in that steel makers buying scrap contracts will also want to sell hot rolled coil contracts—and US manufacturers and auto manufacturers will want to buy those contracts and use in transit digital title too. What do you think?

@mog_russEN @Kathleen_Tyson_ And then there is this: EU wants to tax the “windfall profits” of energy firms due to the war. How about those same energy firms stop selling Europe energy. How dumb are they?

🚨⚡️ Putin’s envoy issues stark warning to Europe… Kirill Dmitriev: “EU will become even more desperate on April 11th. You really need to prepare: real reactions will begin in the European Union on Monday, April 13. This day could be called the day of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas. And by around April 20, fuel reserves there will be depleted.”

@DREAMYPRADEEP @FinanceLancelot So Iran is a victim? They spent millions and millions on sophisticated weapons and yelled death to Israel and America.

@FinanceLancelot If largest democracy USA can kidnap a sitting President of Venezuela and steal their oil there is no International Order left. Iran was bombed by Israel and USA repeatedly for no reason still Strait was not closed.

It's clear now, the U.S. will invade Qeshm Island to stop Iran from transiting oil tankers for a fee of $1 per barrel in Yuan. This massive island has been prepared by the Iranians for this exact scenario. Think mines, troops, bunkers. The U.S. is aware of this and plans for this first invasion to fail, forcing Europe, Australia, Japan, etc. to be drawn into the war due to chronic energy and fertilizer shortages.

@captaintytan @clashreport Aren’t we in day 14 of Taiwan sitting on 11 days of LNG?

Taiwan 🇹🇼 sitting on 11 days of LNG reserves while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted is the moment the semiconductor industry’s energy vulnerability becomes a global economic crisis rather than a regional energy story. TSMC 🇹🇼 alone produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Every data center, every AI model, every defense system and every consumer device dependent on advanced semiconductor supply is now eleven days away from the first production disruption caused not by a Taiwan 🇹🇼 Strait military scenario but by an Iranian 🇮🇷 energy control decision made in the Persian Gulf.

Taiwan has about 11 days of liquefied natural gas reserves—a limited buffer that has become critical after Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off key supplies from Qatar. Because Taiwan relies heavily on LNG to power its grid and semiconductor industry, any prolonged disruption could force energy rationing and threaten chip production. Source: POLITICO

@walsh3r3 @Geo_papic @ShanghaiMacro Or did we find out America’s strategic alliances are not alliances?

@Geo_papic @ShanghaiMacro The erosion of America’s strategic alliances playing out in real time.

In 2003, 45 nations joined the US-led “coalition of the willing” against Iraq. Today, even America’s closest allies refuse to deploy naval forces to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Few contrasts more starkly illustrate the erosion of American unipolarity and the acceleration toward a multipolar world—one in which even US allies, let alone non-aligned powers, are increasingly both willing and able to say NO.

@_MartinKelly_ @LukeGromen Can you provide an example where iran did not allow a ship to go through?

CONFIRMED - Iran is allowing select vessels transit the SoH after verfication At least 4 vessels have transited outbound voa the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24hrs with a short diversion via the Larak-Qeshm Channel. This appears to be a verification process whereby Iran confirms the ownership, cargo and vessel are not US, or belongs to those that Iran has permitted transit to. The ships that have passed are 3 bulk carrier (2 Greek / 1 Indian) and one aframax tanker (Pakistan).

@RealRickRule The deficit is over $400.0 million a month. $100.0 million per week. Just amazing.

his promises require your money

@IkieBooBoo @PolicyEngineer @DougSmithNY Not even close

@PolicyEngineer @DougSmithNY I keep seeing posts that say that the Teachers Retirement is 100% member funded. Is that accurate?

No, @DougSmithNY: NY public employee pensions aren't "fully funded by their own contributions." Most of the contributions flowing into the system come from employers—the taxpayers—not payroll deductions. If you "fix Tier 6," you raise property taxes.

@MarioNawfal Iran’s Navy?

🇩🇪🇮🇷 Germany won't escort ships through Hormuz. Won't host US offensive aircraft. Won't join the war. But they do operate 6 of the quietest submarines on earth. The Type 212A runs on hydrogen fuel cells. No nuclear reactor. No need to surface for weeks. Virtually silent. Undetectable to most sonar. Armed with heavyweight torpedoes and capable of diving beyond 700 meters. Stealthier than most nuclear subs. Without the nuclear reactor that gives them away. Germany is sitting this war out publicly while quietly possessing the exact weapon that would make Iran's navy very nervous. @DI313_

@LukeGromen CNN Luke? Please.

@dailydirtnap Agreed but the right will try and outdo them. We need to bring back moderates. Although unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.

What if I told you that Mamdani won’t be the furthest-left politician in our lifetime?

@nixsa84 Gold is very hard to predict right now. I still believe it’s going higher due. Currencies worldwide are getting deep based. Sticking with that theme. Although tough at times.

Oil price spike + growing concerns around private credit are creating parallels to the GFC leadup. And with Gold now trading like a risk asset, with more headwinds from the US$ breakup/out, $4500 is near-term target before another leg higher. Tactically bearish, structurally still bullish

@LawrenceLepard @kbeckermd Can’t imagine what the daily price tag is for Iran, Ukrain, and Venizzula that most likely was not in the monthly budget. Huge monthly deficit numbers incoming that are greater than monthly revenue intake. They will have to print.

@kbeckermd Hard to tell but I think months. Could be one year. War will accelerate it.

How much longer until The Big Print? @LawrenceLepard

@anasalhajji I can clearly see my car in the driveway with Google Earth. So we are supposed to believe that Iran is using small boats to “mine” the straights and our military can’t do anything about it? They would destroy those boats with machine guns in two seconds.

♦️Iran mining Hormuz? Believe it at your own risk Map below form MarineTraffic

@akm515 @chamath Any mention of what they plan to do with this new revenue that will really benefit the WA population?

@chamath Dude stop crying. It's a 10% income tax on those who earn more than $1M per year. You'll be fine and so will others who qualify for this tax. Government budgets need to get their fiscal house in order at all levels. It's not ideal, but they need to start moving the needle.

Here is what a tax like this does: 1) It excites people with zero agency and infinite envy. Beware of these people. 2) It will keep middle class people firmly in the middle class with no real chance of getting wealthy if they stay in Washington State. It should be clear that this IS the strategy. Learned helplessness of the electorate will keep Washington State’s current elected officials in office. 3) It will never allow the upwardly mobile of building any assets or real wealth unless they move. Capping the American Dream is a dystopian and malevolent scheme. It cannot be a valid strategy. But unless droves of middle and upper middle class people leave Washington State, this strategy will win.

@ErikSTownsend A few people I follow on Substack have pointed out that Iran didn’t shut down the straights. The insurers won’t insure the risk therefore they effectively shut it down. Reopening will require new underwriting standards. Expensive and time-consuming.

It should come as no surprise that $GC_F Gold futures opened sharply higher on elevated geopolitics, but then started trending sharply lower. The reason is "in a crisis, you sell what you can, not what you want to". Traders are selling their gold against fundamentals because they need the cash to cover margin calls on other positions. If traffic flow thru the Strait of Hormuz isn't restored this week, $250+ oil is entirely plausible in the short term, and would bring on a global economic crisis, not to mention horrific human suffering. This oil price spike is not just an emotional panic as many on X seem to think. It's a simple matter of logistics, and it has some really scary feedback loops into production shut-ins that won't be fully reversible once forced to occur. IMHO the crisis in the physical oil market is BIGGER, not smaller than most pundits seem to understand. It was previously assumed that Iran "couldn't really shut down the Strait". That proved wrong, at least for now. A LOT hangs in the balance, on the specific question of how quickly normal traffic flow can be restored. Oil wells are not like water faucets that can be turned off then turned back on at will. Once the shut-ins begin, these effects will start to be long-lasting, regardless of when the strait is restored to normal traffic flow. There's plenty of room for Gold to move MUCH lower before this is over, for the reason stated above. It will be a buy-the-dip opportunity for sure, but it could be a really big dip if exploding oil markets crash global equity markets.

@ctindale It appears from Grok response that although the refinery was struck the impact is contained so not a major supply hit. Is that your read? WS will assume supply is down 6.5 millions barrels a day which might be wrong.

@grok fact check this please

7% of global oil with 140 drones