RadicalLuddite

@RishiJoeSanu @seriousfunnyguy The chart just shows cons; does not show marginal propensity of cons Anyway, poorer states will have higher MP for cons since they do not have the luxury of saving Anyway-2, OP was about showing off; still true; even the wealthy in the south do not show off their wealth

@seriousfunnyguy The stereotype of South Indian thrift is a remnant of the pre-91 days when South India used to be poorer than the North. The most consumerist state in India (measured as marginal propensity of consumption) is Kerala. Update your priors.

Always considered South Indian people as more grounded and simple. In show off, we North Indians always were on the top. But this video breaks my heart 💔

@VotingLogic I understand that; I was clarifying "discriminatory power" You should select some questions which put DMK and TVK at loggerheads - i.e., at widely different directions, and so on for each pair. That is the only way you will be able to get distinct clusters

@LudditeRadical Thank you for the feedback, But the backend isn't a strict decision tree, it's a weighted on a 3-point system pr. Answer pr. Party. TN parties share a lot of policy DNA, so the matrix gives partial points to capture those nuances instead of forcing binary splits.

@VotingLogic I strongly lean DMK but got 70% TVK on your quiz 😱 I guess there are two reasons: - the manifesto is no indicator of delivery capability; TVK, imo, has none even if the promises are good - the discriminatory power of many questions is suspect

@VotingLogic I meant you hv selected some Qs with out discriminatory power - meaning they do not distinguish clearly between the options available. For example, for the first question (cash->women) the answers are not even mutually exclusive Low Information gain in decision tree lingo

@LudditeRadical Hey, I think this is as you say mainly based on the manifestos and TVK is quite a populistic party, that have given a lot of promises that you might agree with. If they can keep the promises is a whole different thing.. Which questions do you feel are discriminatory?

@sumanthraman @umasudhir This you?

@umasudhir Not naming the side???😀

In #Tamilnadu, it is obvious that one side has done better than the other 3 players on the campaign front and run, much to everyone's surprise, the most well-coordinated, smooth election campaign.

@KBalamuruganPhD Devolution of powers and funds to states no centrally sponsored schemes Clip governors’ and president’s powers Empowered and independent ED/CBI, EC, RBI, SEBI, CIC, CVC, CJI, CAG, … No cess/surcharge w/o states’ ok

Decentralisation is the solution for Delimitation Conundrum. The lawmakers should seriously consider amending the Constitution for pruning the Union List and Concurrent List to the barest essential and making the State legislatures and executives more responsible and accountable in running their governments. Simultaneously create monitoring and regulating agencies that are transparent in their reporting. Parliament is supreme but it need not be omnipotent. Giving more power in localised issues to State legislatures will allow Parliament to focus issues of national and international importance. Let us understand that uniformity leads to discrimination and discontent. Centralised policymaking on domestic issues is a recipe for failure. Unity, integrity, stability and durability of our nation are preserved when power is rightfully distributed.

@PWilsonDMK Have you driven your own vehicle and seen the unruly behaviour on the road? Have you walked on the streets and seen the garbage, the broken pavements, and lack of green cover? Have you been frustrated with the fleecing by the auto mafia, with their cancellations and bargaining

#Chennai makkale: You only need to drive around Chennai to see the development in the last 5 years under our Hon. CM''s #DravidaModel Government. From eco parks to swanky public libraries, modern schools, flyovers, futuristic bus stands & terminals, creation of co-working spaces, community spaces, sports complexes, Chennai is on track to becoming a world class city. As we all know, the CMRL project - one of the biggest infra project for the city -was delayed and subsequently underfunded by the Union. The State Government took up the majority of the funding & will be completed soon. Once opened, the city's traffic situation will become better and the sacrifices we have all made driving around CMRL construction will be rewarded. Now the DMK Party (@arivalayam) has released the #ChennaiManifesto containing #ChennaiSuperSix promises which will take Chennai miles forward in our quest to becoming a global super city! These promises address our day to day needs including tacking stray dog issue in a humane manner, further improving traffic management, and sewage and storm water drain improvements. The Super Six manifesto also offers a vision for creation of jobs, and channeling talent in the fields of AI, VFX, Gaming etc. So on April 23rd, I request all the Chennai-vasis to turn up and #VoteDMK in the Rising Sun symbol 🌄 and in Velachery for the INC in hand ✋symbol to continue our city's development! 🙏 @mkstalin @Udhaystalin @Subramanian_ma @PKSekarbabu @nchitrarasu @mylaivelu71 @JJEbenezer1 @rdsekarmla @Karthikmohandmk @Dr_Ezhilan @PrabhakarRaja88 @raja_anbazhagan @DrSubair_Khan @KSRavichandran_ @PrasannaTamilan @Hassan_tnpyc

@puram_politics Can you test and verify your model on 2021 results?

The model does seem skewed towards priors. Its Western Tamil Nadu prediction is a clean sweep for ADMK+.

Applying this to all Chennai Constituencies yields this.

@sumanthraman If on may 4th, DMK wins: this arivaali will point to this post If it loses, he will point to his “prediction” posts Either way, has his cake and eats it too Ithellaam oru pozhappu…

I must have spoken to at least a dozen people from various constituencies during the day. Then on my show at night,to maybe another 40-50. Most callers spoke about how money had started to flow to voters. Almost all those who said this admitted that both the major parties were distributing money to voters. The amounts ranged from 500 to a whopping 5000 per vote. The average seems to be ₹1000 for now with the promise of another ₹1000 closer to the voting day. This is a mockery of democracy. If the @ECISVEEP cannot see this happening they may as well shut shop. The only consolation is that people who take the money may vote for whoever they wish and not on the basis of who paid them. Elections in TN are becoming an auction. #TamilNaduElections2026 #TNElection2026

@sardesairajdeep @revanth_anumula In our polity, an MLA’s role is also legislative.

@sumanthraman It’s obvious to anyone with more than three neurons in their brain; it is the party which is losing on the 4th. The genius commentator has correctly predicted, just as usual. 🙄

The wheels are slowly starting to fall off a campaign. Will leave it to you to guess which one.#tamilnaduelections2026 .

@KartiPC For all practical purposes, we will have a presidential form of government; the fix? Subsidiarity! Push legislative powers & funds to the state and executive powers & funds to the local level; politicians who really want to serve the people should serve them there…

An 850-member Parliament will be even more ineffective than the current 543-member House. MPs are legislators, not administrative executives. Simply adding more of them does not—and cannot—improve constituency administration, because MPs are not the administrative heads of their constituencies.

@puram_politics A goodish percentage of the population is mystified by the concept of a “denominator”. BJP folks use the same trick to confuse people re devolution, gdp per capita, railway allocation etc. they will use the same trick and the same group will be befuddled again..

Forget everything else. How are there people in Tamil Nadu, who still want to vote BJP/NDA, after seeing the Delimitation Bill?

@tnrags Absolute values or differences do not matter; to pass a bill, etc, the criteria remains majority of those present and voting which means the states’ relative importance remains the same?

If the Lok Sabha seats are increased by flat 50% for the implementation of women’s reservation, this is what will happen. Now Kerala 20, UP 80 Difference 60 After 50% increase Kerala 30 UP 120 Difference 90 #Skewed

@thekaipullai as CM and minister resp, they have executive powers for state level executive functions as legislators, they can influence budgetary allocation to municipal corporations as cm and party lead (Stalin), he can influence the local mayor and commissioner to address local issues

@LudditeRadical So Stalin and Udhayanidhi can't do anything??

Do Stalin and the aspiring MLAs know that they are basically paper pushers and their only job is to ask questions and go home? Also if that is their only job, why are they promising all the stuff they are promising in campaigns, if they have no power to get it done?

@thekaipullai To be clear, the cm and the cabinet are part of the executive branch *as well*.

@thekaipullai Did you read the article carefully? The chief minister and the cabinet are part of the executive branch. Executive powers at the state levels mostly do not overlap with the executive powers at the local level.

@puram_politics Perfectly articulated as far as it goes but does not go far enough, as it does not address the 2 ‘c’s : corruption and casteism; do we have the structures to oversee that these do not make things worse? What do we need?

I wrote about what we should and should not expect our MLAs to do. Expecting them to fix local garbage collection or pot holes on our streets is to ruin our own governance prospects in the long run. frontline.thehindu.com/the-nation/ref…

@sumanthraman @SirKazamJeevi Will you put your money where your mouth is?

@SirKazamJeevi Will guess closer to 23rd

Prediction: As per today's situation, AIADMK/NDA likely to win all except one seat in Coimbatore Dist. AIADMK/NDA likely to win all except one seat in Salem Dist. #TamilNaduelections2026

This, rather dispiriting, fracas only shows that we do need to push the "subsidiarity" principle (power, and funds, at the lowest possible level) in our political discourse. We should not be avoiding it anymore citing caste/corruption risks. How many of us know our councillors?