RealSokol

@filmmatchapp @grok what was the ending

Bu izlediğiniz sahne sinema tarihinin en çarpıcı ters köşelerinden biridir. Son sahnede kanım dondu! 🎬 Remember me (2010)

@wreckedretail How is it trading at a low valuation? Is it truly trading at a discounted to MNAV?

$MSTR checks almost every box on Howard Marks' bargain checklist: ✅ "Widely disliked or ignored" ✅ "Trading at low valuations" ✅ "Recent poor performance" ✅ "Something's wrong with the company or industry" ✅ "It's controversial, forbidden, or scary" ✅ "It's deemed inappropriate for 'respectable' portfolios" The best stuff is usually where nobody wants to look.

@AdamBLiv But the question is, would investors continue to buy MSTR ATM equity issuances? If not, would management cut the dividend? What happens to STRC stock price?

To be clear: I don't think this is going to happen lol But interesting to stress test the numbers regardless! Good to analyze your investing decisions this way to properly understand the risks! :) I believe Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world.

MSTR Stress Test - Bitcoin crashes to $41.5k and mNAV gets cut in half: Starting Balance Sheet: Stock price: $103.79 Shares: 358.90M BTC held: 847,363.00 ₿ BTC spot: $62,042 Cash: $1.40B Debt: $6.71B Preferred: $15.48B Current CEBE sats/share: 142,733 Current CEBE mNAV: 1.17× Claim ratio: 39.5% Wrapper fee: 3.39% Stress Assumptions: Horizon: 6 months BTC drawdown: 33% Drawdown duration: 6 months Price path: linear recovery Bottom mNAV: 0.70× Recovery mNAV: 1.00× Preferred capacity: $0/mo Common capacity: $0/mo Payment method: cash first Shortfall fallback: sell bitcoin Result: Stress result: SURVIVES Months to failure: Survives full horizon Worst BTC price: $41.57K Ending BTC: 847,363.00 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 90,002 CEBE sats/share change: -36.9% Max claim ratio: 61.9% Cumulative dilution: 0.0% BTC sold: 0.00 ₿ BTC purchased: 0.00 ₿ Ending implied stock price: $21.92 Company survives the stress but ends with lower CEBE sats/share. Educational modeling only - not investment advice.

@goodforbtc @Strategy Its not a token. Its a publicly traded equity. Per the prospectus, the dividend is paid by equity issuances ATM. So new $s are paying the dividends of existing shareholders.

What is STRC, really? Think of it like an LP token built to hold ~$100. You hand @strategy money, they hand you STRC — and when it trades over par, they skim the top to buy more Bitcoin. Your cut for the risk: ~11.5% a year.

The Invesco Preferred ETF, or PGX, generates yield by investing in preferred stocks. It passes the interest and dividend income collected from these holdings to investors. STRC generates yield from new buyers of Strategy securities. Hopefully you see the difference. Both provide a dividend, but one has a different business model than the other.

JUST IN: @PunterJeff Walton plotted $STRC against traditional credit ETFs (PGX, HYG, JNK). "It feels extreme on a nominal basis. But the amount of yield you're getting puts it on a similar trajectory." The market is pricing digital credit in real-time. 🔥

@AdamBLiv Respectfully, on STRC, it generates yield on a yieldess asset. Strategy has to raise capital from future investors to pay existing ones. Selling BTC could depress the value of BTC. You have to assume a worst case scenario when evaluating securities.

🔥EVERY SINGLE MSTR BEAR ARGUMENT EVISCERATED - BITCOIN AND STRATEGY ARE INEVITABLE🔥 I have decided to WRECK literally EVERY SINGLE ARGUMENT the MSTR bears put forth. The FUD out there is ridiculously insane, we are dealing with a LOT of schizo lunatics IMHO. The nonsense doomer morons are NOT on the side of the ETERNAL LOGOS. They are NOT aligned with the TRUTH. This is me EVISCERATING EVERY SINGLE BEAR ARGUMENT AGAINST MSTR. IF I MISSED ONE, LET ME KNOW AND I'LL CRUSH THAT ONE TOO. GIGA-BULLISH MSTR BECAUSE I OPERATE IN REALITY:

Respectfully, STRC generates yield from an underlying asset that has no yield. Money comes from the issuance of equity to new buyers. Or the sale of BTC which could cause the price to go down. Folks pushing this use fancy words like amplification, yield curve, mNAV, etc... but the basic problem is the premise of how the yield exists. Thus the need for retail investors. This will end badly at some point. Usually the structural flaw becomes evident during a market downturn. This isn't about Bitcoin. Its about a structure that makes no sense. Now, if they sold calls and gave the yield to investors, that would make sense. But the existing structure doesn't. Please explain what I am missing or how I am wrong.

@CautiousOptimi4 I recognise your points and agree, was trying to mostly take the angle I don’t see people talking about often. It is deeper than just what I wrote which I appreciate you highlighting

An important take on STRC: Look at the thread. The most useful way to see what is happening to STRC is to stop staring at Bitcoin and look instead at who actually owns the thing, because the holder base, not the coin price, is what is driving the de anchoring. STRC is a perpetual preferred paying 11.5%.Take the ticker and the crypto away and that is a fixed income instrument, and fixed income instruments have a natural home: insurance general accounts, credit and yield funds, the preferred desks and BDCs that exist specifically to buy high coupon perpetuals and sit on them for years. Almost none of that money is in STRC. The float is parked in the same retail brokerage accounts that bought the orange coin thesis, which is exactly why a security that is meant to behave like credit instead trades tick for tick with Bitcoin and comes unglued on a 3% down day. The instrument, and a lot of what looks like a solvency crisis is really just the wrong holders behaving the way wrong holders do.

Vijay, first off an excellent succinct explanation of what's happened with MSTR. The very small sale of 32 BTC for $2.5M was a gasket. It was a signal to the market that they are going to act like a portfolio manager and sell when they need to. They presumably knew the psychological reaction when they started actively trading their portfolio. They are likely to buy and sell to optimize their portfolio. The whole business model of providing yield when the underlying asset generates no cash flow is crazy. It assumes that they will be able to get the market to buy their securities. Because BTC has no underlying cash flow and is narrative based, MSTR materially selling equity will be bad for BTC. Will it go down to $20K. Maybe. Who knows. There is no underlying value to BTC, so the narrative can change anything and everything. The fact that what MSTR can drive BTC prices explains why the valuation process for BTC is problematic. BTC = tulips. Scarcity in itself does not have value. A digital currency works if its actually a currency, not a store of value.

The Fix? Deleveraging. The cleanest way out is to sell a chunk of BTC now to secure years of dividend runway. Yes, it hurts the "never sell" narrative and pressures the current BTC price, but deleveraging is the most direct way to restore long-term market confidence. I don't like this solution but I also don't like the amount of financial engineering involved. Over the long course of financial history, financial engineering rarely works out well.

The 4 Levels of MSTR’s Financial Engineering, how we got here, and why the market is flashing warning signs today. 🧵

You mentioned fundamentals. What exactly are the fundamentals? The premise of MSTR is to have a premium to their bitcoin holdings so that sells of MSTR stock ATM equity program are accretive. If that premium goes away, then its dilutive to sell shares on the market. Bitcoin generates no yield. To generate cash to cover the interest payments on the debt requires sale of Bitcoin or stock. If they sell Bitcoin then it causes headline risk and Bitcoin goes down. There are no fundamentals. Perhaps the initial sale of Bitcoin was a communication to the market saying that they are prepared to sell Bitcoin. The amount that they sold was modest.

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read: 1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely. 2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade. Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range. This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio. This works great, until it doesn't. STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds. By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions. The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations. 3. What happens now? The market will heal itself. Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares. Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return. 4. What will Strategy do? Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward. Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market. If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification. No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this. 5. In summary... The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged. This is a leverage wipeout. From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy. And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

@TheDefiantGhost @grok Do the same type of math analysis for the Eiffel Tower demonstrating how this could be coincidence.

Graham Hancock just dropped a devastating blow to mainstream archaeology with the Great Pyramid of Giza. “It’s a 6 million ton monument… more than 2 million individual blocks of stone.” “The Great Pyramid is aligned within 3/60ths of a single degree to true north… on a 6 million ton monument.” “It sits almost exactly on latitude 30 which is 1/3rd of the way between the north pole and the equator.” “And it incorporates the dimensions of the earth on a scale of 1 to 43,200 in its own dimensions.” “So if you take the height of the Great Pyramid and multiply it by 43,200… you get the polar radius of the earth. Measure the base perimeter of the Great Pyramid… multiply it by the same factor, 43,200, and you get the equatorial circumference of the Earth.” “Archaeologists know this. They say it’s a coincidence, total coincidence, just by chance.” “However, I could agree with them actually if the scale was not 1 to 43,200. But the fact that it’s 1 to 43,200 changes everything because that belongs to a sequence of numbers that is found in ancient mythology all around the world… multiples of the number 72… derive from… the precession of the equinoxes.”

Did Stride (LRN) lose Lone Star Online Academy because of weak academic outcomes? My take on the recent announced closure of the school insights.kolariconsulting.com/p/stride-lrn-l…

@baharkarakrt 26

Bunu çözmek imkansız! Çözebilir misin?

@GiGi1170 @RevRayCistman That is a parody account.

@RevRayCistman You call yourself a Reverend and you support murder because someone is white. You need to ask for forgiveness then find a new title that suits your agenda.

No Black mother should ever fear sending her son to a high school track meet only for him to lose his life to the prison system from a murder conviction.

@DrEliDavid The Magnus Effect. Its the curved trajectory of a spinning object moving through air.

insights.kolariconsulting.com/p/skillsoft-th… Skillsoft is a case study in how 2020s SPAC-era incentives pushed companies toward poor capital allocation decisions. The recently announced sale of Global Knowledge closes that chapter in the company’s story. The question is whether a simplified company with a large debt burden can find a path forward. AI complicates the story further.

@PeterSchiff @saylor What is the allegation regarding securities fraud? I understand the thesis regarding Bitcoin, but what are the allegations of impropriety?

@saylor Is that how many years you expect to get for securities fraud?

32?

@Emmanuella45836 @grok what happens after this?

This cop is very wise and intelligent He detected what others could observe for hours in minutes

@DeFiTracer @grok Is this verified data? Are they describing accounts within these exchanges or the actual exchanges?

🚨 BREAKING: HERE IS THE EXACT REASON BITCOIN IS DUMPING RIGHT NOW: COINBASE SOLD 13,501 BTC BINANCE SOLD 13,142 BTC WHALES SOLD 24,871 BTC WINTERMUTE SOLD 4,572 BTC KRAKEN SOLD 3,980 BTC THEY DUMPED OVER $10.7B WORTH OF BTC AND DROPPED THE PRICE BELOW $60,000. SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING...

@Web3Marmot @grok Did Marmot previously predict this decline? Or is he taking credit retroactively?

Everything is going exactly as I predicted. $60K has been hit. Now the real liquidation phase begins. Bottom target: $42K-45K Remember, I warned about the $82K bull trap and Saylor’s sell-off before they happened. My next call will be the biggest one of this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

I think that you are conflating MSTR structural issues with BTC. MSTR issues will not cause the price of Bitcoin to drop. Bitcoin is narrative based, and the narrative has changed given how capital is going to AI, with miners converting their footprints to create data centers. MSTR has perhaps stretched itself too thin, but its structure will not drive a collapse in BTC. Obviously its financial instruments will suffer. MSTR represents 4% of BTC holdings I believe.

Bitcoin is going to zero for a reason nobody is talking about. I uncovered the insane truth about Strategy & how Saylor is running the biggest ponzi in history This video shows how $STRC is the nail in BTC's coffin + why you should sell all your crypto before it's too late