Snowman

@levelsio Well, cannot disagree here...

🇵🇹 If you have ever dealt with any Portuguese business (and I have with many in my 5 years here) you know why Portuguese in Portugal simply do not care about work, some foreigners find that refreshing, but it results in a country where you can't find anyone to do work because nobody wants to work And when they do work, the work is generally bad, like imagine stepping into a time machine back to 1970s bad, they also can't follow the spec you agreed upon beforehand, and then when it's 60% done they disappear and ghost you When we did home renovatiom, you hire ppl, they arrive late at 9am (you agreed 8am), they then drive away to get materials, come back 11am, do actual work for an hour, then at 12noon announce they go for lunch, come back around 2.30pm, walk around a bit, do some work, and then leave early at 4pm It's not just construction workers, it's almost every interaction you have here with a Portuguese business, the quality is just low, the service non-existent or customer-hostile, and it's not the language, I speak fluent Portuguese, I'm respectful and friendly which is why I never ever had this amount of issues elsewhere in the world And I know it's not just my experience, it's everyone I know here, even Portuguese complain about Portuguese! It's not completely their fault though, the hostile tax system for both people and businesses literally gives you an incentive to never ever scale your business beyond I believe around €150,000/year, because you end up in a completely different category and tax tier that decimates you with more taxes and more bookkeeping So every business tries to stay small, and doesn't want more customers (how many times have I walked into a Portuguese cafe or shop and the staff or owner *sighed* "not another customer") Add decades of socialist governments that hand out free money to 50% of the country (and even the right wing parties here are socialist btw, they have to be or they don't get votes) and you don't have any incentive to work left Why work when you don't need to work? The majority of the young smart Portuguese people with actual ambitions understandably move elsewhere, because if there's no incentive to grow a business, there's also no jobs for them, and the whole thing becomes a vicious cycle of increasing poverty Which is why I said Portuguese in Portugal at the beginning of this tweet, because Portuguese outside of Portugal are ambitious, want to work, want to improve their lives! Bringing in lots of foreigners like me by the government as a way to pump money into the system, we spend a lot and it pays for the welfare, healthcare and retirements of Portuguese now, but it's not a structural solution (and we also instantly became the scapegoat for the government's decades of mismanagement) It'd be relatively easy to fix this though if people in Portugal would put on their thinking hat: 💡 Make Portugal a great place to start and run a business, model yourself after Singapore but with extremely low taxes (maybe 5-10%) for companies/startups and make it easy for them to hire (and fire) people, the money you lose in taxes you will get back in increased economic activity over time (but it will hurt for a little bit) Because even the foreigners who move here and start businesses get caught up in the reverse incentive spiral of Portugal: Why even work?

Now that Iger is out, is Disney a buy?

If executed well, this could be one of the most important structural changes for European startups in a very long time.

@CompoundingLab I think you have exceptional analisys. Keep it going!

@RickyNeves Noted. Will work more on this. Still searching what my followers prefer to see.

$SAP 10Y ROIC, Average 9% 10Y ROIC, Coefficient of variation 30% FCFE 3Y Average, per share $5.2 FCF 3Y yield 3% Wide Moat Market Price $190 Fair value $301 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -37%

@investlust_com @Quality_stocksA I would also not consider DSY. But i think you got the wrong DSY there...

@Quality_stocksA $DSY I would not consider, but all others are super solid companies as fundamental data shows:

15 stocks with 2026 PE too low to ignore 🇳🇱 Adyen $ADYEN 24.4x 🇺🇸 Microsoft $MSFT 23.6x 🇺🇸 Uber $UBER 21.5x 🇺🇸 Automatic Data Proc. $ADP 19.8x 🇫🇷 Dassault Systemes $DSY 18.9x 🇺🇸 Unitedhealth $UNH 16.7x 🇺🇸 Deckers Outdoor $DECK 15.3x 🇺🇸 Adobe $ADBE 15.1x 🇮🇪 Accenture $ACN 15.0x 🇺🇾 DLocal $DLO 14.1x 🇺🇸 Factset Research $FDS 13.8x 🇳🇱 Wolters Kluwer $WKL 13.0x 🇨🇦 Lululemon $LULU 12.8x 🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk $NVO 11.6x 🇺🇸 Paypal $PYPL 8.7x

Behavioral inefficiencies may be the only inefficiency left for market participants soon.

@nicrypto I don't know but probably not Portugal! We still need to go to places to fill forms in order to get the form we actually need fill...

If AI really starts replacing knowledge workers… which countries collapse first?

@DreamDividend Pharma

Name one stock sector you hate to own, and never do. I’ll go first: airlines Now you 👇

@investseekers I was considering, but the more i look to it, the more i get value trap vibes.

Would you buy $NVO today? Novo Nordisk’s stock has fallen 37% in the past month and over 75% from its peak. Private investors have been buying the dip, but professional investors are divided. Børsen asked four experienced Novo investors the same question: If you didn’t already own the stock, would you buy it today? Two say no: • A DNB portfolio manager says there are better opportunities elsewhere and believes Lilly currently has the stronger obesity drugs. • One healthcare investor has just sold all his Novo shares, arguing the risk-adjusted return is not attractive after the CagriSema disappointment and rising competition. Two say yes: • A long-time investor believes the current valuation is attractive long term, though growth may be low and returns may mostly come from dividends (~7%). • Another investor argues the market may be overly pessimistic and that positive scenarios are not priced in. Link to article (in Danish): borsen.dk/nyheder/invest… #StocksToWatch #Investing

@NotA_Bull For me, not selling during a crash

What’s the hardest part of investing? Starting, staying consistent, or not selling during a crash?

Crazy idea: If the war on the Middle East drags, the price of goods will jump and GLP-1's will suffer as people cut back spending.

@_falsi1ke Hello, hello, hello...

No account should be under 1K followers Say hello, I will boost you

@politicalawake Kagutsuchi, hum???

Pakistanis tried to build a mosque in Ebitsu, Hokkaido & it was suddenly struck by a mysterious fire. The Pakistani owned Car repair building also caught fire in the same day. Is this divine intervention by Kami? 🤔

Novo Nordisk’s stock has just completed a near-perfect roundtrip $NVO $NOVO – from soaring to $145 per share, to crashing back to the same level it was before the FDA approval of Wegovy in 2021. But here’s the question: Was it the market that mispriced the company back then, or is it mispricing it now? One could argue it has to be either of the two … The chart below provides an insightful view into the wild ride of the company's stock price, particularly around the June 2021 FDA approval of Wegovy for chronic weight management. The price skyrocketed following the approval, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55% over just three years. Wegovy, the weight-loss drug, created quite a buzz, and as it was made more widely available (albeit with some supply issues), demand surpassed expectations. The stock continued to climb, eventually hitting a peak of around $145 per share. However, in the subsequent quarters, sort of in the wake of this meteoric rise, the stock has crashed, erasing almost all of those gains, with another -55% CAGR, but this time it occurred over just 1.67 years. The classic adage "stocks take the stairs up, and the elevator down" certainly rings true in this case. Key factors driving this sharp decline include: 📉 Pricing pressure: Public and investor scrutiny around the pricing of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy has led to increased pressure on Novo. 📉 Supply issues: Despite strong demand, Wegovy's supply chain couldn't keep up with the rapid increase in orders. 📉 Competition: Eli Lilly's $LLY foray into obesity management, alongside other new entrants, has posed a serious challenge to Novo's market share in this growing category. 📉 Disappointing efficacy studies: Some efficacy studies for Wegovy and other newer, more promising treatments have lived up to expectations, leading to concerns over the long-term success of these drugs. 📉 Government pressure: The US government is increasingly scrutinizing the pricing of weight-loss drugs, putting additional pressure on companies like Novo. Looking at the broader context, this market roundtrip raises an interesting thought experiment: Two Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ The Market Overpriced Novo in June 2021: Could the market have been too optimistic about Novo’s prospects before the FDA approval of Wegovy? Perhaps the stock was priced too high back then? 2️⃣ Novo is Undervalued Today: In this scenario, despite the setbacks, Novo's core diabetes business remains strong. While Novo may be losing out to Eli Lilly in weight loss management, it still holds considerable market share in this space. With the increasing focus on obesity and Novo's established position in diabetes, the company might still have a promising growth trajectory. Essentially, investors might be getting the obesity opportunity "for free" (if we anchor the price to June 2021; pre Wegovy approval) while the company’s strong diabetes base continues to drive revenue. ----- Now maybe that’s too simplistic. You could add more nuance here: ✅ A) There’s an intriguing question of whether the obesity drugs, like Wegovy, could eventually cannibalize the diabetes category. This might occur if more people use these medications for weight loss, potentially reducing the demand for diabetes medications in the long run. The uncertainty of this dynamic is something investors will need to consider moving forward. ✅ B) Secondly, the news from China, where scientists have successfully reversed type-2 diabetes using stem cell therapy, adds an extra layer of complexity. If this therapy becomes more widely available, it could dramatically reduce the need for drugs like those from Novo, putting additional pressure on the company’s growth prospects. ✅ C) In addition to the challenges in the obesity market, Novo's core diabetes business is also under significant pricing pressure. Recently, the company had to reduce the price of its diabetes drugs in the U.S. by as much as 50%. This price cut comes amid increasing scrutiny from both insurers and lawmakers over the high cost of diabetes medications. It’s a dynamic situation, and while there is still substantial opportunity for Novo, there are new risks emerging in both its core business and its expansion into obesity management. The key takeaway here is the need for a cautious and forward-looking approach. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on where Novo is headed and whether it's currently mispriced or not, whether it was mispriced in 2021 already (overvalued), and whatever else comes to your mind.

@WallStreetMav Dude, we already have out bottle caps solved. Give us the weekend. We are tired!

The European Union cannot have their weekend interrupted. They will get together on Monday to announce that they are continuing to monitor the situation closely.

@bcarloscarvalho Acho é que deviamos reclamar o Estreito de Hormuz que já foi nosso.

Se eventualmente o Irão atacasse a Base das Lajes, a responsabilidade seria também do governo português que, pondo-nos em perigo, participa de forma indirecta nesta agressão comportando-se como um vassalo dos Estados Unidos.

@WatcherGuru Portugal built the Fort of Our Lady of the Conception on Hormuz Island centuries ago. They should give Hormuz back to Portugal.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran warns "no ship" is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israel attacks. Roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through this strategic waterway.

@JacobCordosa @HatedMoats I think you missunderstood friend. When i said moat is gone, not only for NVO, for everyone. Not even their product is best in class anymore. But i might be wrong, as i said its just my opinion.

@RickyNeves @HatedMoats Funny how it’s not a threat to future competitors or Lilly. Guess their margins and new launches will have plenty of pricing power and competition isn’t an issue. It’s all just risks and threats that applies only to Novo. Funny isn’t it?

$NVO has the same stock price as 5 years ago because they're the Pepsi instead of the Coca Cola. Insane.

@HatedMoats NVOs are having to offer massive discounts to maintain market share. The "Pricing Power" gap has evaporated. Wegovy is no longer the "Gold Standard," it's number two. MariTide can be taken once a month instead of weekly injections. And we still have Roche. Just my opinion friend

@RickyNeves No, it isn't. Crazy what sentiment does to people...