Rod Alzmann

20.1K posts

Rod Alzmann

@RodAlzmann

Private investor hunting for one (or three)-foot hurdles. Special sits & other unsavory, unpopular, securities. My edge (tax) is different than yours, DYODD.

Tampa, FL Beigetreten Ocak 2010

1.2K Folgt23.3K Follower

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·29 Oca

Five years ago I lived one of the craziest days in a lifetime, recording an Odd Lots interview during the morning peak of what would come to be known as meme mania.

Bloomberg TV@BloombergTV

GMEdd.com's Rod Alzmann has seen value in $GME since '17, before all the mania hit the stock. Hear how he stuck to his guns over the years til it paid off. Want to hear more? Listen to @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway on the new Odd Lots podcast trib.al/f026Wy1

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·7h

@ScrivCapital x.com/rodalzmann/sta…

Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann

On a conservative basis, Virginia plus cash is more than the entire market cap

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Scrivener Capital@ScrivCapital·7h

@RodAlzmann Weed reclassification?

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·9h

LITERALLY NO ONE IS MODELING THIS BILL & I AM SO APPRECIATIVE MARKETS REMAIN INEFFICIENT

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·1d

If I had a risk manager… ha. Glad I don’t.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·8h

Any other millennials remember playing these games growing up?

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·8h

If you’d have told me my largest position would ever be a technology platform I’d have simply called you a liar.

GIF

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JH@CRUDEOIL231·9h

The more oil prices stay capped and financial markets hold up, the less incentive there is to end the war. Everyone is betting on TACO, but that very expectation is exactly what’s pushing it further away. Meanwhile, in the real world, the Strait remains closed and supply is just bleeding out. Given the projected drawdowns in both waterborne and onshore inventories, late March and mid-April are likely going to be the next major inflection point. At the end of the day, a quick restoration of flows is the only real fix. But the more we tell ourselves "it's fine, nothing’s happening" today, the higher the odds that this absolute dumpster fire of a reality just drags on. It’s a total paradox. The clock is ticking, and eventually, the physics of the market will catch up with reality. I honestly believe you guys need to get this. The outcome is pretty much baked in at this point based on how the timeline is playing out. Today’s rhetoric is just killing any incentive for a better tomorrow. In just a matter of days, we’re going to be staring down an unfixable situation—long after everything is already broken. #oott #iran

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·8h

@GasBuddyGuy @greg_ip My crudely (ha) held view: top decile drives a majority of consumption, so equity drawdowns crater the real economy faster than crude catapulting petroleum product prices—though both lanes (top decile & low tier) could crash concurrently.

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Patrick De Haan@GasBuddyGuy·9h

@greg_ip I’d argue it may be lower. For Americans half of it is speed of price increase, the other gut punch is when we hit $4, something only seen for 157 days since 2009, and how long it sticks

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Greg Ip@greg_ip·17h

How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war. wsj.com/economy/econom…

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·9h

You think drawdowns are your ally... but you merely adopted the drawdown. I was born in it... molded by it.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·13h

@jakeallen3 …TBV (stripping goodwill + intangibles) is deeply negative: $1,183.6M − $2,686.7M − $864.8M − $38.2M = −$2,405M, or ~-$6.95/share. At a $7.50 stock price, you’re paying almost entirely for earnings power & optionality, not asset coverage. Which is fine, but a real risk2/2

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·13h

@jakeallen3 Common equity of $1,183.6M (= $3.42/book value per share) looks healthy until you decompose it: $4,522M of APIC offset by a $3,411M accumulated deficit. The APIC is overwhelmingly the $1.4B IPO-related SBC charge flowing through equity—an accounting construct, not RE…1/2

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Jake Allen@jakeallen3·1d

$STUB Update - Post $LYV vs. DOJ Settlement / Lock-Up Crash Growth deceleration against rising ad spend is the worst signal you can see in a consumer marketplace. GMS growth decelerating 44% → 26.5% → 6%. S&M as a percent of revenue climbing 38% → 47% → 54% It's a short.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·16h

@lebas_janney *Reads Guy's tweet, checks to see if spread widening is still appropriate for ants*

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Guy LeBas@lebas_janney·16h

Kinda feels like nothing is happening for the first afternoon in a while? Sorry if this jinxes everyone.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·16h

Call notes detailed here: open.substack.com/pub/rodalzmann… Net: clearer SRE catalyst path, visible inorganic FRE pipeline beyond Yieldstreet, and cleaner credit than headlines suggest. Stock at 52‑week lows as first AUM deal closes and 2–3 more plus buybacks loom. Next 90 days decide it.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·19h

Discounted alt-AM @ 10x growing FRE w a functioning insurance platform thrown in @ negative implied equity value. < MoS than original 📝; > FRE 📈 picture than originally known. Net: still constructive, but original 📝 overstated B/V disc. & this is me correcting the record.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·7 Mar

Sometimes Mr. Market hands you a mulligan. I got clipped tendering $MLCI from the wrong zip code, then got a second swing at $5.00 after the board itself paid $9.43. I wrote up the mispricing, the mechanics, and the real LTC risk here:

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·17h

Russia continues to win. They got their candidate twice-over.

John_Hempton@John_Hempton

An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy: US foreign policy is self-defeating. a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were illegal - but the beggar-thy-neighbour policy did not engender friends c. start a war of choice in the Middle East. This may or may not have been justified (I lean towards justified) and it may or may not have been wise and winnable (I really do not have an opinion) d. ask your allies for help and e. get upset when they do not oblige - whilst forgetting about a and b above. The geopolitical realignment is astonishing. All my life Australia has had one foreign policy - which is to internationalise the corpses in all American wars. If America asks us to go to war we go. And we go fast. This time the Australian Government (to general approval) has refused to send a ship to the Gulf. (They have not been formally asked - but they made clear a rejection was coming.) After a) and b) above aligning yourself with America is becoming political poison in a democracy. I think this is VERY bad. The world has been well served by the American alliances that won the cold war and mostly kept a functional global order. Those alliances have been sacrificed to Trump's egotistical whims. The world is a less safe place now. And it is less safe not just for America's (former?) allies but also for America.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·21h

Russia is again winning. So much winning. No oil sanctions, no tariffs. Incredible, the amount of Russian winning.

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·1d

@ValueNotDeadYet Would be a classic Trump move. Maniacally short term obsessed malignant narcissist gives away world's 4th largest economy in return for 39th. SAD!

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ValueNotDeadYet@ValueNotDeadYet·1d

Next week Trump will call Carney and propose to trade California for Alberta in a bid to lower #oil prices… #Trades

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Rod Alzmann@RodAlzmann·1d

@stevehou Precisely. The hilarious & grotesque tension of TACO being contingent on BTFD gang getting blown out,..before he can then effectively TACO. The longer BTFD prevents a TACO, the greater & longer lasting the real world damage. Sad! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS TWEET.

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Steve Hou@stevehou·1d

The fastest way for this war to end is a 10% sell off of the US stock market in a week just like Liberation day. The stock market is the economy, political legitimacy, and the most consensus symbol whether things are going well.

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Entdecken

@ScrivCapital @GasBuddyGuy @greg_ip @jakeallen3 @lebas_janney @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13