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I talked to @polymarketinfo a while back and it was fun
news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-fr…
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semi
795 posts
semi
@SemioticRivalry
Pretty good at prediction markets. DM for inquiries
Beigetreten Temmuz 2024
1.1K Folgt2.4K Follower
Anyone wanna take bets on the ceasefire officially breaking down right about the time the stock market closes tomorrow?
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Quite wrong on the timeline but largely correct on the substance - I lost a lot betting on an early ceasefire but it's been very profitable overall
semi@SemioticRivalry
My base case for US-Iran war is it lasts a week or two, a lot of senior Iranian officials die, and Trump declares victory and demands Iran start negotiating a nuclear deal.
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i unironically trust sama🤣
clanker@clanker_
it's just impossible to trust a lot of americans: trump, elon, nikita, etc.
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@peterwildeford it's not really clear to me what they would do differently if they were exclusively trying to optimize being as dangerous as possible
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There it is…
Democrats are now projected to win both the House and the Senate in the midterms.
Republicans were at 75% a few months ago.
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i think the market (mostly correctly) see this as
A: A bunch of really slow businesses responding to the usefulness of agents all at the same time
B: Anthropic taking a lot of market share from OpenAI, and since OpenAI is ridiculously leveraged this is potentially somewhat bearish for stocks if they falter
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@SemioticRivalry @CharlesD353 So I'd think that crazy revenue growth would help the market really get what is happening with Claude Opus 4.6 in a way that the METR graph or Humanity's Last Exam score just doesn't?
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People are used to crazy numbers in AI, and there are some accounting differences which make it unclear if they've actually surpassed OpenAI in revenue yet, but Anthropic YTD revenue growth is still the most ridiculous revenue trajectory in the history of capitalism.
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_
Anthropic's run-rate revenue has now surpassed $30 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025.
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I think the market mostly knows that ai companies will make a lot of money, I think it doesn't yet really understand scaling/agi but this isn't much evidence of that. So the fact that a huge % of the ai pie is being captured by a company that's not in the index is arguably quite bearish for some of the biggest components (eg meta, msft, goog) and it'd surprise me a lot if the index moved up noticeably from this. If anthropic has crazy capabilities progress that should move the index up bc a lot of the index is chips and related stuff, but I think it would probably be neutral or bearish for non tech on the first order.
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@SemioticRivalry @CharlesD353 given that the market currently thinks AI is not gonna be that big of a deal, I feel like Anthropic revenue growing at this insane rate is a decent data point for AI being a big deal, no?
and AI being a big deal is straightforwardly bullish for stocks, the whole economy
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@PoliticalKiwi @CharlesD353 you think spx should move bc anthropic has a lot of revenue? Why would that be the case
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@CharlesD353 Maybe I'm just way over-indexed on AI but this feels like a piece of AI news that should actually have meaningfully moved the stock market today, and it didn't
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@SashaGusevPosts @pli_cachete polls arent a model, turning polls into even a polls only model is most of the work
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@pli_cachete People realize the 538 models are initialized from polls, right? And the "polls only" model has previously outperformed "polls plus"...
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Flipping a coin on every congressional race will also get you “almost perfect” calibration
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
Tired of this narrative! You can see the results of all of Silver’s political model predictions! He’s almost perfect!
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The parties are hilariously bad at targeting election spending- maybe glance at the prediction markets before lighting 180m on fire
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
NYT: Where the main Senate Republican super PAC plans to spend Republican-held seats 🟥Ohio: $79 M 🟥North Carolina: $71 M 🟥Maine: $42 M 🟥Iowa: $29 M 🟥Alaska: $15 M --- Democratic-held seats 🟦Michigan: $45 M 🟦Georgia: $44 M 🟦New Hampshire: $17 M
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@RFishBlueFish @MichaelKiwi77 idk if this is empirically true but it makes intuitive sense that people have very solid opinions on trump rn but know very little about the races for Congress this early
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@MichaelKiwi77 @SemioticRivalry From what I gather it wasn't "slow to catch up" in 2010/14/22 as much as it was just kinda early on in the race at the time, eg this was pre-Dobbs in 2022. @SemioticRivalry wait why do you trust early approval rating polls more than early generic ballot polls
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Got talked into Democrats being favored to win the senate by @SemioticRivalry
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@RonBrownstein @CAgovernor Where on earth are you getting 20% from? Even in a miracle world where Hilton/bianco get 40% they probably won't split it perfectly
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A Republican will succeed @CAgovernor only if one Dem can't reach ~20% of the primary vote in June. Most Ds still believe they will somehow avoid that fate, but w/ each passing week, more are growing nervous that they can’t map out exactly how. My take cnn.com/2026/04/05/pol…
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well i think it was sort of inevitable when we killed the supreme leader, iran has to go all out after that. but i think all else equal they would really prefer to not be the enemy of almost the entire world which they are when they close the strait and when the war ends i expect them to largely open the strait when it's over, maybe with a small toll
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@SemioticRivalry @polymarketinfo Do you still hold the view that Iran closing Hormuz is a suicidal move or in the current circumstances it makes more strategic sense?
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I talked to @polymarketinfo a while back and it was fun
news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-fr…
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@DeepDishEnjoyer isn't the most likely scenario that he just taps about how great the war is and doesn't announce anything
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by the way this is actually incredibly bullish for oil because this guarantees that tonight isn't about withdrawal
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
if you are a trading firm and have an algo that scrapes for ceasefire you should turn it off, like what are you doing
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@DeepDishEnjoyer @Squee451 you don't think crude will go down significantly on this?
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@Squee451 like i've discussed before, that condition is almost completely immaterial to oil prices
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