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Gil
25.2K posts
Gil
@RFishBlueFish
Politics, EA, Constitutional Design Alt: @BFishRedFish. Also follow me over there: https://t.co/a6MzEQW0ec
NYC Katılım Mart 2019
114 Takip Edilen434 Takipçiler
@UFStudent2 That’s where you’re wrong open.substack.com/pub/redfishblu…
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These are absurd numbers. Every other center-left party, this could be you!
Europe Elects@EuropeElects
Hungary, Závecz Research poll: TISZA-EPP: 74% (+1) Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 19% (-1) MH-ESN: 6% (+1) DK-S&D: 1% MKKP→G/EFA: 0% (-1) +/- vs. 27 May - 3 June 2026 Fieldwork: 13-20 July 2026 Sample size: 1000 ➤ europeelects.eu/hungary
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@MakeUSAVAT @roon0292 It would be nice if the horse sometimes actually obeyed instructions
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@roon0292 sometimes you have to do some horse trading.
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@flaminhottweets @SpecialPuppy1 @loganb I mean, healthcare is consistently the issue on which democrats perform the best. And yes it’s better than it’s been at points in the past but from a global standpoint the situation is still quite terrible
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@SpecialPuppy1 @loganb It makes a lot more sense to be obsessed with it when the situation is actually terrible. But all in all it's pretty okay right now, especially if trying to optimize for things that affect voters in particular
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The left/Dem obsession with health care is really weird as an electoral consideration.
The median voter is, like, 60 years old, so half the voters already have universal health care. Overall, 90% of voters have health insurance. The system may be annoying, but it works for most people.
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@monkey_reg @TahraHoops It’s common practice for journalists not to vote, though I feel like that should only apply to the level of politics they’re covering, ie Cilizza should not vote in federal elections but should vote in local ones
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@TahraHoops He’s like the Jim Cramer of politics. Watch his calls vs what happens
So this is on brand
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@RFishBlueFish @Thackej @SukritGanesh there was a time when the fiscal/monetary critique of the EU was an acceptable explanation for poor European growth and that time ended at least half a decade ago
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Honestly, Spain is well-positioned to become a European tiger economy. Their military spending isn't excessively wasteful, and they have high immigration. They're also excellent at building infrastructure affordably. If they simply cut regulations, they'll boom.
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@Thackej @AlexGodofsky @SukritGanesh Though tbh I don’t really blame anyone in Spanish government for this, this is the fault of the German debt rules
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@AlexGodofsky @SukritGanesh My point was that you’d expect some effect from all the stuff they’re doing right (compared to other euro countries) even if they’re still doing a bunch wrong
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@RFishBlueFish @SukritGanesh spain has the common euro absurdly overregulated labor markets. abundance, because it's an internal dem project, can't yell too much about those because dems love strangling the economy with labor regulations, but neoliberalism is a decades old cross-partisan project that can.
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@SukritGanesh I still think fiscal policy is the most parsimonious explanation
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@SukritGanesh Yeah I do think Spain’s pathetic economy is a challenge to the usual abundance/neolib/whatever theories of growth
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Not sure what the verdict is here. He seemed to be better calibrated than the market on France but worse on Argentina. Low N though either way, hard to say
Gil@RFishBlueFish
Do Nate Silver's sports (specifically World Cup) forecasts outperform the prediction markets? I've been trying to figure this out. I think yes by a bit but maybe not enough to net profit with Kalshi fees?
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@stanfordNYC Though obviously this wouldn’t help in specifically the World Cup final
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@stanfordNYC The real problem with red cards is that their severity depends on what minute they occur at. I have a shtick that reds should extend over to the team’s next game, so if a player gets a red at minute 63 then their team has to play their next game down a man for the first 63 mins
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Many rules in soccer that seem like reasonable if debatable choices about how to define the game, but the red card just seems obviously wrong. A penalty absurdly disconnected to the severity of offense. There's even an easy solution: just make the manpower disadvantage temporary.
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@AaronBergman18 Not super in EA loop these days so was considering asking around on where to donate but idk I ended up just picking the AI safety and animal welfare ones that GWWC recommended
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@monkey_reg @PoliticalKiwi I’m evaluating him relative to other candidates. I think basically anyone who’s not DSA would be favored against Collins
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