Bitcoin Grandad

@AvidCommentator #BITCOIN is a monetary technology which is largely being adopted by young adults & the tech savvy. It’s rapidly outperforming other savings and investment options. Whatever happens, things are shifting quickly, rapidly improving their financial position.

@RaulioEnglasias @indexnforgetit 👍

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit I'm not against your strategy, Grandad. Perhaps it will play out. My comment was directed elsewhere.

Hate to burst your bitcoin bubble...

Whilst the rest of the country struggles with cost of living crisis and are constantly told to tighten their belts the most incompetent Prime Minister to ever lead Australia receives a whopping $57,000 pay increase. Communism at its finest.

Yes, it seems the floor is hard (or has been at least) and the ceiling is more variable. Prior to 2025, all cycle tops reached a minimum of 99 Quantile, and the 2013 & 2017 went higher. It was the Oct 2025 that fell under at around Q75. But it is possible it was due to a number of extenuating circumstances. The reason the floor is useful in my opinion is that once a low is reached (towards the floor), the price has never gone lower. Secondly, in the newer models the floor slope (and therefore CAGR), is higher than the median and top Quantile, ie the floor is converging towards them. This is one of the best and most useful newer Quantile based Power Law models Imo. @BitcoinPowerLaw #x=log&y=log&h=10&ma=off" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">mnav.marty-5b9.workers.dev/btc/power-law/…

@Stumitchell60 @Drewhawk711 @indexnforgetit Power law is good at the floor but the tops have missed

Respectfully, a Power law is math that was first discovered in the late 1800’s. Its applicability to Bitcoin was discovered & proven in 2013/2014. Having used it for years now, after buying my first Bitcoin in early 2017, I’ve learned the benefits. But everyone can do what they like. I’m only here to help those that are interested in learning. These numbers are simply what the math says.

@indexnforgetit @Stumitchell60 You are doing exactly that 😆

Not really. The returns are slowly diminishing in percentage terms, but compounding means the nominal $ value increases each year. For instance, the 1 Jan Support line prices are $50,708, $70805 and $97099, for 2026, 2027 & 2028 respectively. But the growth between 2026 & 2027 is $20,097, and then the growth between 2027 & 2028 is $26,294. By 2032 the annual growth of this support trend reads over $100k snd continues to climb. The future is not guaranteed, although Power Law based math has worked very well so far. Power Law discovery dates back to the late 1800’s. Nfa.

@indexnforgetit @Stumitchell60 you're literally saying the future is only diminishing returns

It’s not my work. I’ve just found it very useful. The Bitcoin Power law was first discovered by @Giovann35084111 back in 2013/2014. @hcburger1 extended the work in a paper he wrote in Sept 2019 hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw/… which is where I first learned about. Later @BitboBTC developed an interactive version which is the source of this base chart.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Can you state your case as to why the floor is the floor? And without using any historical price trends/data

@IsDatEchtZo5 @patricksavalle Bitcoin power law. Succes

@SimonKay100 The U.S. can seize custodial $BTC. It cannot seize properly self-custodied $BTC without access to the private keys.

@Drewhawk711 @indexnforgetit No gurantees, but so far so good. The trend is the same scale invariant math. If you haven't looked into what a Power Law is, you'll be glad if you do. What is guranteed is that a low interest bank savings account goes backwards in real terms.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Because past performance guarantees future results! Got it! 👌🏻💵

@indexnforgetit On average, the future is better than this. The median is a Power Law (put simply, the average price over time), that sits considerably above the Support floor trend. The Support has historically been the lowest risk trend. Nfa

@Stumitchell60 Ah I’m glad to see you can predict the future

@dimezzzzzz @indexnforgetit It's worked well for a long time. If you haven't already, its worth looking into Power Laws and how robust the downside deviations have been.

@Stumitchell60 @indexnforgetit Genuinely interested, if I hear something good then I’ll buy, otherwise I am assuming that it’s a glass floor.

@indexnforgetit Just what the math has showed for 17 years. No predictions, just math.

@Peak_Ascent @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 That Support line reads $60k in early July and $70k by year end. It’s close to Support earlier this cycle.

@Stumitchell60 @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 Cycle theory and money flows tell me we are likely to go lower than here. I think we form a bullish divergence between now and November on a high timeframe The $60k wick could still be the low though x.com/Peak_Ascent/st…

#Bitcoin Floor Is at $42K and Rising. Historically, every #BTC cycle bottom has formed above the lower boundary of the Power Law V2.0. That boundary is currently near $42K and rising every month. I believe a move below $42K remains highly unlikely.

@LongTermLuke Less discomfort if you buy low. It’s not hard either.

Bitcoin teaches a lesson most people never learn: Short-term discomfort is often the price of long-term freedom.

No surprise, but it begs the question: if you lied relentlessly before the election about these taxes, and you now have voters clearly rejecting them en masse, how can you possibly try to legislate these policies now given the election was won on the basis of grossly misleading and deceptive representations? One Nation surges ahead of Labor as budget flops: Poll afr.com/politics/feder…

@MerlijnTrader @grok Is a death cross in Bitcoin a certainly for a major dip? What’s the probability?

THE CME DEATH CROSS JUST PRINTED ON BITCOIN. The last one cost bulls 42%. 2022: $30K dump to $17K. 2026: $83K dump to $48K? Same chart. Same cross. Same warning. The market doesn't forget.

@benjamincowen Asymmetric opportunity 👌

The asymmetric fit on Bitcoin upper and lower tails back in 2020 does not include the 2021 data (obviously). It thus makes the upper tail too optimistic. By adding the 2021 data it aggressively pulls down the upper tail.

@Peak_Ascent @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 A decent dose of luck too, but a sound plan helps. This cycle is trickier. Do you think the bottom is in or might we have more to go?

@Stumitchell60 @Washigorira @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @hcburger1 Well played ser, nice buys 🤝

I don’t think it’s perfect, but this version has never had the price reach its support as it sits lower than many pl support lines. That’s why I use it. ( and why I posted what I did). The origins of this model go back to @hcburger1’s paper in 2019 I believe. I used it to allocate in back in 2022 too. I’d planned up to 10 buys starting from October as we approached Support. The price dropped to $15760 ( on this model) in late November when this Support read $15,549 so I bought in with the balance. Over that period my average buy was $17,200 which I was happy with. I note some other models use Q5/P5 as Support and I saw one today that said Q10, even though its value was only $62k. Just different calcs, different starting dates etc. 👍

@Stumitchell60 @Washigorira As @Giovann35084111 knows, I'm already onboard with PL theory I was just highlighting that PLS isn't as perfect as you were saying We also broke it at $15-18k cycle lows in late 2022 when I bought under it. @apsk32 has a fabulous animation showing exactly this DCA Q3 & Q4