Tim Tesch

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Mehr: This is the US-Iran MOU 1- Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon 2- The US commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 3- Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days 4- The US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran 5- Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements 6- Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives, and full access of Iran to its financial resources. 7- The necessity for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least 300 billion dollars 8- 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions, and UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions 9- Reiteration of Iran's commitment under the NPT treaty not to produce nuclear weapons 10- During the negotiation period, the US has committed not to add forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions. 11- Release of 24 billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the start of negotiations. 12- Formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement. 13- The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. 14- Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's blocked funds, suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade, and the final agreement will only cover the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and Iran's economic reconstruction plan. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are definitively removed from the agenda.

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks. 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion ($SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation The next few days will be INSANE, but don't worry - I'll break down every move as it happens, like I always do. Like it or not, I called every major top and bottom of the last decade publicly. I'll call this one too. Many people are going to wish they followed me before June 12, 2026. Soon, you'll understand why.

🦔Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered, matching the average before prior market peaks going back to 1990. The S&P 500 is statistically expensive on 17 of 20 valuation metrics and trades above its own tech-bubble levels on eight. Tech sector dispersion between winners and losers is the widest since February 2000. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 10% on Friday, its steepest single-day fall since March 2020. My Take Hyperscaler capex is on pace to hit 100% of operating cash flow by year-end. In 2023 it was 40%. These companies will soon spend every dollar they earn on AI infrastructure with nothing left over. If the revenue those chips are supposed to produce doesn't arrive, there's no cushion. The same handful of stocks that carried the index to a record led the selloff on Friday. BofA stopped short of predicting a crash. But seven of ten signposts match the average before every prior peak they've tracked since 1990. Hedgie🤗

JUST IN: Google $GOOGL and Nvidia $NVDA are considering Intel as a backup chip manufacturer.

$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says he expects the memory shortage to last several more years. HBM uses far more wafer capacity than regular DRAM and depends on advanced packaging so even $MU, Samsung and SK Hynix cannot fix supply just by adding more wafers.