Tim Miller

Tempted to sell my truck, put all the cash in $RIVN, and hope it does well enough I can afford an R2 by the time I get my invitation. I’ll need to buy something by the fall (October?). There is some chance I will abide by the results of this poll.

Here’s the logic: 1 — if we only invite current owners and early reservations, we’re likely to get an unrealistic sense of the reservation conversion rate. 2 — if we have an unrealistic sense of the reservation conversion rate, we will not be able to confidently give invitation timelines. 3 — if we offer a relatively small number of random reservations the invitation to order, we’ll have a reasonably good sense of the reservation conversion rate. 4 — if we have a good sense of the reservation conversion rate, we’ll be able to confidently give invitation timelines. 5 — having some confidence about invitation timelines is good. 6 — therefore, we should offer a relatively small number of random reservations the invitation to order. It’s counter-intuitive, but it’s quite logical. Me likey smart company.

@Rivian_DD I find it extremely weird that someone who placed an order last week would get invited to configure today. I stand by that logic.

Kind of crazy to see folks who placed an R2 reservation weeks ago get invited whilst others who put it reservations in years ago, silence. The logic is… weird.

@RivianTrackr @Rivian_DD You called it crazy and said the logic was weird…

@Rivian_DD I don't recall saying I was not in support of this.

@Hilbe If you are self aware enough to know you’re an inferior person, then you should let the rest of the world know by opting for a Gold Star. Sam’s Club? Don’t even get me started. Everyone else: Executive.

You’re not Costcoing hard enough if you’re not rocking the Executive Membership. Tell me why anyone should ever settle for the peasant Gold Star Membership.

Tesla had TONS of issues with early Model 3/Y. I know it’s still very early for R2, but is anyone hearing about quality issues? My demo drive had an odd software bug: the A/C directional controls were reversed. Directed down on the screen was blowing in my face and vice versa.

@heshie Freedom.

being older is so different, this morning for the first time in my life I threw out my new iphone box I guess this is what being 31 is like

@brandenflasch My R2 is going to replace my lightning. It’s not apples to apples, obviously. I’ll miss the truck. But the R2 is better for my roadtrip family.

Is an R2 worth 2x HW4 used Model Y? Worth more than my Lightning? Those are the questions...

@TiffanyFong Perspective

How does the existence of a trillionaire negatively impact anyone else’s life?

It does make sense if you consider all that Rivian is taking in to account: not just reservation date and previous ownership but also proximity and (I was told) they are trying to coordinate lease end and are giving some out by lottery. As others have noted, the lottery gives them good data on “random” reservation conversion, not just current owners/early reservations.

@RivianRuckus Whatever math Rivian is doing to get these emails out, its weird.

How are all these non-R1 owners and new reservations getting the order emails? wtf

The #10 fella in the blue shirt is pretty good.

@EGonzo_28 @Hilbe Congrats!

@Hilbe Ordering tonight. It will be my first EV. 😃

Kind of wild TBH.

@Hilbe I was told that some reservation holders will get selected via lottery.

@KevinMelnuk @GrantTDM @Rivian Yeah they continue to execute their stated plan quarter after quarter.

@GrantTDM @ThMTim @Rivian It’s exactly what it was supposed to be. It’ll get them to $30+ B in revenue and profits. Then R3 and others come at lower prices. They’ve been clear.

.@Rivian R2 production and delivery ramp is going well. Reservation conversion rate seems high. Everyone loves R2. I haven’t heard anything significant about QC issues. Market is up. Someone explain this to me. @KevinMelnuk

@HOLYONEULTIMATE @Rivian @KevinMelnuk I mean I don’t think anyone thought R2 was gonna “dethrone” model y 6 weeks after the start of production. Then again, there are psychos on the internet.

@ThMTim @Rivian @KevinMelnuk x.com/i/status/20669…

@ChargerHunter …order.

What should i do...

@Hilbe This all seems reasonable to me.

📊 My R2 Q2 Estimates 📊 Pessimistic: 2,000 to 2,500 Realistic: 2,500 to 3,000 Optimistic: 3,000 to 3,500+ Explanation: Everyone keeps asking me "how many R2 are they making?". To me this means velocity, or how many units they make per day/week/month. We've seen ~1,000 VINs arriving at service centers. Assuming those units spent a few weeks in transit, they were produced near the start of the month of June. I will need to see a door jam label to confirm a "6/26" date to be certain. A few weeks prior we saw a 500 VIN QR code at the governors visit on May 19th. Based on these data points, let us assume they made 500 R2 in 2 weeks or 250/week. This number will continue to go up, but there are only 2 weeks left in June. Simple math without any increase in speed for the month of June you get to the below estimates. 6/1 - 1,000 6/15 - 1,500 6/30 - 2,000 (End of Q2) Assuming they increase velocity of the line you should see those numbers improve over the month of June. This is how I did my estimate - my very worst/base case they have 2,000 made by EOM. If they improve production to 300 to 400/week we see a more realistic number. If they put the pedal to the floor and hit no supply chain issues maybe they finish the quarter with over 3,000 R2 produced. What's your guess?

@RivianFanatic @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Yeah at this point I’m not sure what it will take for the price to hold. It seems like investors really only care if the company makes money. Once they’re profitable, the market will pay attention to HOW they’re profitable and will price the stock accordingly.

@ThMTim @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Q2 earnings call might not move the numbers enough. Sadly I feel it will take 2 years (2028) when you will see the stock POP and HOLD. Lately it pops but never holds. If miraculously we get Point-to-Point Supervised driving by EOY it might help.

@Hilbe @gdann27 I don’t want to quibble, but 2 months isn’t until next Monday (6/22). If they are DELIVERING 985, they have to be over 1000 produced. By Monday I’d guess they’ll be close to 1500, no? Seems like the ramp is going well.

@gdann27 Took them roughly 2 months to hit 1,000. Keep in mind it's hard to track performance since they are ramping up. This week should be different from the last.

VIN 985!

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie I want Rivian to officially and publicly say it out loud so the stock does some hockey stick stuff.

Good news is with vins we can get a pretty good idea. We’ve heard do 1,460 vins, we’ve seen 1,000+ on the ground places, lots in the 500-1000 range at service centers. 100 stores x 2 = 200-300 at Rivian stores. We will see 2,000 vins popping up online sometime soon. 300-400 or so being built a week so we will have 2,000-2,500 by end of June.

Saw vin 904 on a half moon grey R2 after my demo drive today. Production is ramping! @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie