TrebleStory

@DerekBodnerNBA @NateDuncanNBA “Sir, this is a Wendy’s.”

Bob Myers: "I'm not going to disparage Daryl [Morey] today. I think he did a fine job and he's a good person."

@Merridew__ Not a bad sitcom premise tbh

@ShaleTier7 Full disclosure, I’m one of the kids in the class here.

@EllliotttB I think you just came up with a new Ghostbusters movie. “Ghosts are wrecking havoc in NYC but they’re also the only thing holding up the luxury real estate market, so state and local government won’t let the Ghostbusters intervene.”

I once again ask, are they selling to ghosts?

@jaycaspiankang Lmaaao your challenge was accepted

This game features many guys who should never be taking a shot in the 4th quarter of a playoff game but most notably RJ Barrett

@tleilax___ Maybe it’s just their version of Yacht Week…

If I was a betting man, I'd say the IRGC is laying mines in the middle of the Hormuz transit channel today with dozens and dozens of speedboats.

@ShaleTier7 What kind of multiple would the Strait of Hormuz Oil Company (SOHO) trade at?

US Midstream execs watching Iran implement a fee-for-service scheme on a long-life critical infrastructure asset with no alternative flow routes

@KairosPraxis You have any stone tablet names you’re bullish on? Or are you thinking there’s more opportunity in chisels?

At this point, all saas stocks should just go to zero and we should go back to maintaining systems of records on stone tablets just so that people stop rehashing the same 5 takes on the future of saas over and over again.

Every time I load a random Youtube video or a completely unrelated podcast on history, Adobe spams me with ads. Didn't really care for the stock before, but can't help feel this is super bearish for $ADBE.

@JerryCap Is this a field where hallucinations can be tolerated? It seems strange to me that a company’s leadership would willingly adopt a probabilistic model when it comes to their legal counsel.

"According to the 2025 ACC/Everlaw Generative AI Survey, 64% of in-house legal teams expect to reduce their reliance on outside counsel due to the adoption of generative AI for internal tasks. This shift is driven by the rapid doubling of in-house AI adoption from 23% to 52% in one year."

@PythiaR @JerryCap Canada has been broadly positive on nuclear, with some differences across provinces. Ontario just decided to refurbish Pickering instead of closing it down, for example. OPG also piloting a small modular reactor at Darlington.

@JerryCap No idea but Bruce Power is the largest nuclear plant in North America $TRP

The idiocy of Europe summarized in a single chart

@ShaleTier7 @Tier1Acreage Ya I’m just trying to get a sense of how much value Cenovus would ascribe to offloading the $1B ARO (and I guess the money losing operation). I assume that a dollar of cash is worth more to them than a dollar of ARO (on a discounted basis).

@TrebleStory @Tier1Acreage The $1Bn figure is undiscounted. Rainbow doesn’t make any money for Cenovus. It’s a very slow clean up operation that just drains capital.

Pretty obvious there are 3 main (arguably maybe 4) suitors for this -- Tourmaline, CNRL, Peyto, and Spartan a sneaky contender I think. Tourmaline and CNRL will want to take the whole thing. I'd suspect that CNRL will want to buy it because the smugness factor of buying Tourmaline's Charlie Lake, then beating them at the deal they're clearly saving up for is great. I'd imagine they might also take Rainbow as a way to up the deal (ARO consideration), though that's a pretty gross asset. I don't think Tourmaline will take it and that's probably what gets it across the line. Peyto will want the Central and South assets, not the North as I'd say they're unfamiliar with it and don't want integration risk. Though there's not as much inventory in those two assets as the Repsol package, so I can't imagine they'd be super aggressive, though they'll probably be in the running (but beat out). Spartan I would say sneakily wants the south. They need to find a way to get their Willesden Green/Ferrier west gas across to Alder Flats cause it's kind of a processing wasteland there right now. Plus packaging up that Deep Basin there won't hurt, and there's money on the street for Fotis. It's hard to say exactly how much upside there is. The Falher in the North block (the south part of it) is clearly where the best wells lie, and Tourmaline has a chokehold on that area. Moving north in the North block, that's where the old Canadian Hunter Elmworth field is, so there's a lot of vertical production and deviated production. Cenovus has done a bad job producing it, but if I had to say where's the best chance of finding a few good plays, I'd say it's there. Right now it's mostly Cadomin. There's good Wilrich and Falher upside in the Central area (around Resthaven/Bigstone), and in the northern part of the South Block, there is also good Wilrich upside. You start to get into untapped channels in the South area as well with the Cardium halo in the central part of the South Block. The South Block is definitely more interesting for development, the Central Block is more interesting for integration and growth, and the North Block is very exciting in terms of exploration (ROBUST Nikanassin upside given its easy drilling and completions). I think it'll go for closer to $4Bn than $3Bn, mostly because it should be pretty trivial to get production up to ~150MBOE/d, and operating costs down; then of course Mike/Murray rivalry should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, CNRL ends up buying it, including Rainbow, and Tourmaline solves that by buying Advantage and Aduro (bids due, marketed; respectively). Should be fun to watch even though gas prices are in the shitter (well, they're there perennially too). North produces ~0.29Bcf/d and ~7.5MBbls/d of liquids Central produces ~0.03Bcf/d and ~1MBbls/d of liquids South produces ~0.24Bcf/d and ~5MBbls/d of liquids Cenovus is light red in all the maps below, Cenovus operated plants shown on all maps. Map 1: Tourmaline in teal, Montney position to NW Map 2: CNRL in grey, Montney overlaps in the North Map 3: Peyto in Green Map 4: Spartan Deep Basin in blue, Duvernay in green

@ShaleTier7 @Tier1Acreage So $1 of cash is equivalent to $4 of ARO? I have zero frame of reference for that relationship so just wanted to make sure I was understanding you correctly.

@TrebleStory @Tier1Acreage A just Deep Basin offer would have to be $0.25Bn better at least to beat a Deep Basin plus Rainbow offer in my view.

@ShaleTier7 @Tier1Acreage What would the ratio of cash vs ARO have to be to make them equivalent, in your mind?

@Tier1Acreage Can Topaz GORR contribution outclass Rainbow ARO absorption? I think it’s not even close. $100MM vs $1Bn.

@ShaleTier7 This makes sense from a “higher quality output” perspective, but it would require the typical Excel user (and their boss/client) to have a stronger grasp of statistics than I think is realistic.

This is super cool - but probably my warmer take (and not a comment on the product) is Excel has maybe 4-5 years of life left. All financial modelling will be done (and done much better) with more stochastic outlooks rather than simple 2-3 variable fixed-interval sensitivities.

@Aureliusltd28 How much does this Clear Conscience Sleep System cost??

@BenRabidoux Anti-nuclear is just a subset of environmental activism. I strongly disagree with their cost-benefit analysis when it comes to nuclear, but I don’t think grifter is the right description.

The fact that Guilbealt was against Canadian nuclear energy -the cleanest, safest energy source- tells you he was never an environmentalist. Pure grifter.

@willis_cap He’s gotta talk his book in these letters. Higher rates would make alternatives less appealing and their refis more expensive. It’s lower rates until proven otherwise!

Flatt's most recent letter. Is this a joke? We'll magically keep interest rates below inflation "without the system breaking" and that will be good for real assets? You can't tell me he believes this shit.

@0xMerridew Did you mean to say “If the world is WITH Papa Johns I am with the world, if the world is against PJs….”?

@egreghost We didn’t have the kimono-style tops or soft gowns. Didn’t have any issue with diaper changes in the sleepers. The point about zip-up PJs is a good one. Buttons take a lot longer to do up, especially with a cranky and uncooperative baby.

Parenting twitter does this sound right for a 0-3M? Some things seem low and others high so idk why I bothered asking

@tomhaberstroh Is this not a carry by Lamelo here??

The Hornets could/should be so fun this season