Mine Intelligence τ

If you're looking at your TAO balance decrease due to your alpha positions lowering in price, fear not. It's going to be a temporary phase... 1.) Banks are still easing. Institutional money is still trying to stampede in. Same with countries. Even the Ukraine is talking about an SBR! 2.) Bull market is primed to pump now. Look at the charts. 3.) Bittensor is getting LOADS of eyeballs and mindshare. 4.) Subnet prices are down because of this temporary relationship where they decrease when TAO is pumping and vice versa. This relationship will diminish over time. 5.) Sum of subnets went mental with just 6.87% of TAO flowing into subnets! It's literally been 2 months since dTAO launched and 6.87% of all TAO has flowed in. Very nice! Imagine what subnets will do when that percentage hits 12% or 25%! 6.) We've also had a LOT of TAO sitting in root happily sat there milking in 20-25% yield. There hasn't been any pain or forcing function to shift their position. Now that the majority of subnet root proportions are sub 50% and more TAO emissions are going to subnets instead of root, you will see root APY start to slide. This will continue to do so and gradually force more and more into alpha. 7.) The vast majority of the top 100 wallets are NOT in alpha. This situation will change over time. There's only 2 places that TAO can go. Either rotated back out of TAO, or into alpha. These wallets are believers and early birds. They're not selling their TAO anytime soon. The majority of this will flow into alpha. 8.) The RATE of TAO in root decline is more important because TAO could flow to alpha indefinitely and sum of alpha would fall if this rate is LOWER than the protocol injection of alpha. So far, the flow of TAO from root into alpha has broadly been faster than the rate of protocol injection, which is why alpha prices have risen. That as well as lots of people ploughing into alpha… 9.) The rate of injection is hard to forecast as it’s dynamic. However, looking at the AVERAGE of the rate of this decline compared to sum of alpha, we get 0.088. So there’s a very flimsy average of a 0.088 sum of alpha price increase per 1% of TAO that leaves root into alpha. Sum of all subnets to 3.5 by November is a fair shout in my opinion… 10.) Another thing which isn’t linear is the distribution of sum of all subnets across the subnets. For example, when I did this calc, the sum of subnets was 1.85T, but the top 10 subnets were 1.056T of that! And the top 20 are 1.357T. So a lot of this sum of subnets slump is really just the top 20 taking a punch in the face. But on the flip side, if sum of subnets goes from 1.85T to 3.7T (a doubling) which is likely over the next 6-9 months most top 20 subnets are also likely to double on average. Obviously with the continuous ups and down in volatility as the Reserves over Injected metric oscillates. 11.) Also when you're seeing sum of subnets tank, a LOT of that is in the top 10 because their prices are a LOT higher. For example if Chutes goes from 0.3 to 0.23, that's a 0.07T move. It would take like 80 subnets to match that aggregated price move. Also, the top 10 is where the deeper Liq Pools are, so it's easier to rotate in and out with them without getting royally fisted with negative slippage. This is why I've largely recommended to my private community that the best EV bands for highest probability R multiples is somewhere between position 25 and 70. Subnets that are starting to get emissions tend to quickly zoom from the 0.005T area to 0.01-0.03T area relatively fast. You can get some nice 3-5R trades there. Remember, if you can on average 3x your subnet trading results, you 3x the amount of TAO you have! Nailing subnet trading means that if TAO only does a 10x from here, you could easily do a 15-25x... 12.) The Reserves over Injected is by far the best overbought/oversold metric. Right now, it's SCREAMING oversold. There's metaphorical blood in subnet world with many big subnets taking nosedives lately. NOW is the time to buy! 13.) There is a distinct time lag in Bittensor understanding. It takes an amount of time for a non-holder to be TAO pilled. Once they're TAO pilled it then takes another chunk of time for them to get their heads around proper cold storage and staking on root. It then takes another chunk of time for them to get their knowledge levels sufficient enough to know that the real PvP upside potential here is in the subnet trenches! Once they've figured that out and how on earth they buy subnets etc, THEN they're in. How long is this total learning curve?! Unknown. For some it may be a week. For others 3 months. Either way, the incoming TAO price action will garner eyeballs and so we are likely to see another surge of subnet interest and adoption in a few months. Or once the Solana crew start getting involved once wrapped TAO is here from SN10. Hope all this helps. Bit of a mind dump. But just imagine this...imagine a soon to be world where TAO is at least $3000. Sum of subnets is around 3T and you've managed to 2-3X your subnet positions AND the crazy subnet yields have fluffed up your alpha size a bit. Just imagine... Well that situation is my most bearish and worst case scenario playing out over the next 9 months... YOU DO NOT OWN ENOUGH ALPHA...

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