Bogdan Tudorancea

@emollick Humans aren't that good at generating outlier super interesting ideas either.

Really interesting ideas are going to be increasingly at a premium as the cost of executing those ideas drops. (Our research and others shows AI is quite good at generating interesting ideas, but not nearly as good at generating outlier really interesting ideas)

@EuropeanPan Maybe there are. There should be.

Because Hungary is an EU member, one would expect a "Georgian Dream" scenario to be simply impossible there. But what if it does happen? What if the central election commission and state media declare Orban the winner, and Russia and America immediately recognise the "result". It seems like there are no European contingency plans for this.

@pmarca @stratechery @benthompson Obviously, they don't have enough compute. So they did what they could, with what they have, and got some very good PR as a bonus.

“This raises an obvious question: how much of Anthropic’s reluctance to make Mythos widely available is due to security concerns, as opposed to the more prosaic reality that Anthropic simply doesn’t have enough compute?” @stratechery @benthompson

@Teoyaomiquu Hungary seems to be a key piece in the flux of money between Russia and important people from MAGA, Follow the money trail, and the truth will be revealed.

Can someone explain what's the interest of the USA in Hungary? Orban is a pro russian politician, Orban is demanding that Hungary buys only Russian energy products, refusing to diversify and buy American ones. It's like everything against American interests.

@RichardHanania We're going to find out really soon how much has Orban undermined democracy. If he manages somehow to stay in power after Sunday's election, then democracy is really dead in Hungary. If not, than he was too soft to be called a dictator.

My view on Orban is that the postliberals argue that you trade in normal democratic practice and accept corruption because you care about outcomes. But Hungary hasn't done that well economically, and its fertility rate is meh. Orban supporters had a perfect test case to apply their theories. Little good came out of it. This is despite massive subsidies from the more liberal EU. I am willing to believe that the mainstream press exagarattes the degree to which Orban has undermined democracy. Hungary arrests people for speech less than most Western European countries. But I don't know exactly what you're getting out of Orban's anti-Western kleptocracy.

@tszzl Access to physical hardware (GPUs, TPUs, high-bandwidth memory, etc.) remains a major obstacle to the broader spread of the ability to train powerful models.

renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it spread everywhere within a few centuries, and the rate of spread has been increasing dramatically knowledge of the scientific frontier dissipates around the world faster as science has enabled better communication technologies. it’s getting even faster with INTELLIGENCE technologies which actually explain themselves and help you build them as we approach more powerful intelligence, the ability to train powerful models is self commodifying rather than building a huge and runaway advantage for a handful of recursive self improvers. this is one reason why you should expect almost all of the benefits of superintelligence to be captured by the public

@haider1 If they deem it not safe enough to be released, how can it be safe to perform remote work without human supervision?

AGI is a meaningless concept now anthropic "mythos" will change the world far more than opus 4.6 did, and opus 4.6 was already a small revolution who cares if it scores poorly on arc-agi 5? what matters now is how much remote work AI can do with little or no human supervision

Their marketing strategy is very powerful. Maybe they used Mythos to devise it! Think about it: they don't have enough compute. They banned OpenClaw. OpenAI is in fact in a similar compute situation just not as dire as Anthropic - they also just ditched Sora. Say you're Dario and you have this insanely powerful frontier model internally. But you clearly don't have enough compute to serve it to the open public. And OpenAI has a similar powerful model, and they will release it in a few days. So, what can you do? You cannot just capitulate. Here is an idea: let's claim that this internal model is veeery dangerous. So dangerous, in fact, that you, a responsible, safety pilled CEO, will not make it public! Instead you'll allow a few handpicked partner organisations to use it. Those partners will most likely find that it is indeed very powerful, maybe even a bit better than spud. And they will act as free marketing agents for you. Without spending precious GPU's to give the model to the plebs. The legend grows...until it becomes Myth. Mythos. Do you remember OpenAI people were saying GPT-2 was too dangerous to make it open source immediately? Same strategy. Works like a charm.

@iruletheworldmo mythos is likely a 10trillion param model. the first of its kind. spud likely isn't a version bump on gpt5. they don't seem like the same thing.

i'm on vacation with my family. i read about mythos and couldn't relax the rest of the day. i am completely stunned. i already have a severe case of ai psychosis. i dont know what to call this now. i'm up late right now (late for me). i can't stop reading about anthropic's new model that they can't even release publicly because it's so good. this feels different. words like "frightening" and "uneasy" and "scary" are being throw around by the anthropic team. i feel all of those things. i knew this moment was coming. i didn't know it'd be so soon. i'm generally optimistic. i don't feel as optimistic today. i was shell-shocked most of the day. my mind was stuck on it. i kept looking around at people enjoying their vacations with their families and...i just felt weird. like i had been told aliens are real, they're coming, and soon...and no one else knows. it's true though, practically no one knows what's happening in AI right now. where does this go from here? how quickly? is software solved? is all software vulnerable now? am i even asking the right questions? what about anthropic? this is an enormous amount of power for one company, one man (dario), to have. i've said this before but now it's more real than ever: can any company catch up to anthropic? opus likely helped build mythos, mythos will help build the next model after that. recursive self improvement is here. the "intelligence explosion" as leopold aschenbrenner put it, is here. i knew the frontier labs were racing towards ASI. i knew it. but i didn't fully grasp what it meant. the first company to reach it wins. period. full stop. nothing else matters. dario knew that and his bet on coding was right. on the one hand, imaging all science, math, coding, climate problems being solved. imagine cancer being cured. imagine going to the stars. on the other hand - imagine concentration of power, political and economic change happening so fast, society can't adapt. how do we go on like things are the same?

"Data centers use all the water" is "vaccines cause autism" for people with graduate degrees

GPU's are not really that speciallized. They just do very well parallel computing. But it is general parallel computing. So, we're not stuck using them just for LLM's. They could be used just as well to power the next paradigm, and the one after that. The buildout accelerates everything.

What if the whole LLM thing is a false start? If the flaws are inherent systemic problems - if the compounding of hallucinations/errors can't be sorted out? If the capex build out is one of the biggest misallocations of capital ever? Then what? bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Indeed. And continues: "While to the Nazi the communist and to the communist the Nazi, and to both the socialist, are potential recruits made of the right timber, they both know that there can be no compromise between them and those who really believe in individual freedom."

The demand is so high that both NVIDIA and AMD capacities will be fully booked for the forseable future. I would buy them on dips, and any other chipmaker or company involved in this industry. The market will be supply constrained for a good period of time. I am worried right now about the Helium supply issues caused by the Iran War (critical piece in chipmaking). Not worried even a bit about demand.

The goal right now is to accumulate $NVDA and $AMD at cheap prices, because the race for compute is far from over. Anthropic is heavily rationing their service due to an unprecedented surge of enterprise demand, and most business have only started to dip their toes into agentic AI. Nvidia is positioned well for the next decade at least , but they will not be able to satisfy the demand alone, although they have the best chips. $AMD chips will be used to supplement. OpenAI will seek to make a cowork equivalent in their "super app" and they will use their advantage in compute to try and recapture the enterprise market form Anthropic, by offering higher usage limits.

Zeiss(a german company) Is the only company in the world capable of producing mirrors precise enough for 2nm EUV lithography. It’s foundation-owned, making it effectively impossible to acquire.

@PawlowskiMario No rules basically, in which case the only law remaining is the Law of the Jungle. Or as some say "might makes right".

Can someone please explain me what ANARCHO-Capitalist means?👀

@DeryaTR_ That's true especially for open models. Otherwise gatekeeping just moves from traditional institutions to the entities controlling frontier model weights.

AI gives individuals and very small teams abilities that were previously locked behind institutions, capital, credentials, or years of technical training. When intelligence becomes cheaper and more available, capability spreads outward. That weakens gatekeepers and empowers the edges. Thus, AI empower people with little money, little institutional backing, or little formal training to suddenly perform at a much higher level through cognitive augmentation. That does not erase differences in talent, discipline, agency or judgment. But it does shrink the gap between what an ordinary person can do alone and what previously required elite systems. This is why AI is morally aligned with human emancipation rather than domination that luddites want you to believe. AI is not just another productivity tool. It is a massive amplifier of agency.

@beffjezos Exactly so

So Anthropic is going Apple mode when it comes to model + harness closed ecosystem while OpenAI remains open and will be effectively like Android? Seems like they will just eat the market for alt harnesses and associated API calls

@GaryMarcus @DKokotajlo What is your forecast?

LMAO. Last year most of Silicon Valley was predicting AGI in 2027 (which, spoiler alert, ain’t gonna happen). Now the most prominent former advocate of AGI in 2027, @DKokotajlo, says 2029, and Groks writes it up as “AI forecasters shorten timelines for AGI”, when on net Daniel has moved his mean projection back by two years. @eli_lifland is as 2033, but the headline kind of obscures that, too. Even @grok knows that panic sells; nuance doesn’t.

@RichardHanania The most well-read person "in the room". Yeah, easy enough when the people around him aren’t especially bright or well-read. And he made sure they weren’t.

Jesus Christ. Their praise of him gets more ridiculous. Now they're all talking about him reading everything and having an encyclopedic knowledge of the Middle East. He'll be solving unsolved math problems by the end of his term.

@DeryaTR_ The truth is, they just don’t have enough compute. Nobody does, but Anthropic seems to be the most miserly about it.

So Anthropic now claims there was no token-eating bug after all, it was all our fault for using Opus 4.6! Such dishonesty! I cancelled my Max account and, for the first time, turned negative toward an AI company. They claim to have the highest ethics & we need to trust them!? 👎

@KirkLubimov Straight from Hayek's road to serfdom. If you want big gov b/c you don't like the sociopaths running big corporations, just wait until you centralize the power into a single source (gov), and discover who gravitates there and ends up on top.