Axew

Sadly, there's a problem with Middle East markets on Polymarket. As we all know, the US x Iran ceasefire was extended. Yet on Polymarket, the odds are sitting at just 6%. Why? I wish I had the answer. But I don’t. Why is it sometimes so difficult to resolve a market that seems so abundantly clear? Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire on April 21, and the odds jumped from 20% to 95%. But now, a day later, we're at 6%, even though there's clearly a ceasefire in effect RIGHT NOW. The market deadline is in a few hours. At that point, it could theoretically resolve to "No", unless someone pays $1,500 to dispute the resolution. Trump has a public appearance tomorrow, he will 100% say the ceasefire was extended and is in effect right now. Meanwhile, the Polymarket would have been resolved to NO by that time. I wish Polymarket aligned with reality more often in Middle East markets. The Middle East is complex, but that shouldn't make clear resolutions this difficult. I made about 800K in Middle East markets, which puts me in the top 20, i have traded hundreds of them, but one thing I really hate is that sadly, markets very clearly resolve against reality too often in the Middle East category. I'm a big fan of Middle East markets. It's a region that really interests me, but whenever a market like this is on the brink of a wrong resolution, it takes the fun out of it. We're betting on peace here. We have peace. Yet people are arguing there is no peace. Why? Because they're lying to make a quick buck. This happens too often on Polymarket. The idea of Polymarket providing answers about real-world events is amazing. But in this case, it's clearly not working. That said, the market isn't over yet. It will likely be disputed and reviewed by UMA or clarified by Polymarket. I still have hope it will resolve correctly even though it should've already 12 hours ago.

Someone is trying to community note my post below saying I declared 'the war is over 6 times in the last month' I take that as a compliment 😂 Here's the full breakdown of my prediction posts: April 2 (before Trump's address to the Nation): "The war is close to ending" (At that time everyone was expecting the U.S. to invade Iran, calling it 'imminent'. I saw it as a bluff to pressure Iran to end the war, as an invasion made no sense to me, and all military experts I spoke to agreed) April 2 (after Trump’s address to the Nation): "I REPEAT, THE WAR IS CLOSE TO ENDING" (The markets crashed and oil spiked after the speech as everyone thought he was escalating when he said he will bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages", but I saw it as the clear beginning of the off-ramp) April 5: "Trump’s threats are a bluff" (This is when Trump began threatening to bomb Iran's infrastructure, including their power plants and bridges, and posted "Open the Fin' Strait, you crazy b***s, or you'll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH!". Again, I saw it as a very clear off-ramp, as these threats constituted a war crime, and I did not think Trump was insane) April 6: "Both Trump and Iran want to end the war, the only question is - on who’s terms" (Trump continued his posts, reaffirming my belief the war was aboutn to end) April 7: "off-ramp incoming" ; "A good leader knows when to walk away" ; "Trump will not nuke Iran" (Hours before the deadline, Trump posted "Open the F***in’ Strait... or you’ll be living in Hell" and "a whole civilization will die tonight". While people like Tucker freaked out pleading with Trump's advisors to take away the nuclear codes, I saw this as the perfect execution of the "Madman Theory") April 8: THE WAR IS CLOSE TO ENDING (I made this statement as the deadline was approaching. Hours later we were the first to break the news globally that a ceasefire was signed) April 9: Expect Lebanon to get a ceasefire (This is when the U.S. and Iran were at odds on whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. I knew Iran would get their way, they won the war and would therefore not abandon their proxy Hezbollah as they did in 2024-25) April 9: Lebanon war ends that week (As Netanyahu said the war against Hezbollah will continue and Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, I knew he would eventually have to capitulate to Trump's demands. I've always said: Israel has too much influence over the U.S., but they do not have the final say, especially not with Trump) April 9: Ceasefire will hold, war is over (Many expected the Iran ceasefire to break down because of Israeli actions and rhetoric in Lebanon) April 9: Lebanon war is over (right after Israel bombed Lebanon very hard) (Many expected Israel's very heavy bombardment of Lebanon that day was an attempt to break the ceasefire, while I saw it as Netanyahu's last ditch attempt to cause Hezbollah as much damage as possible before having to abide by Trump's ceasefire) April 14: War is over (I made it clear I expect the ceasefire to hold. I repeated this statement yesterday, as you can see below, as the U.S. fired at and boarded an Iranian ship) WHY I THINK THE WAR IS OVER: The reason I've made all these optimistic posts is simple: I know Trump didn't want a long war, I know he doesn't want the global economy to collapse, I'm also well aware of the limited munition stockpiles the U.S. has, and I also don't think Iran want to keep seeing their country bombarded. It was clear to me all along that this war, one I thought would never happen, was one big stupid miscalculation. I also didn't think Trump just went insane as some people feared. That was too lazy and illogical of an explanation. The "Madman Theory" made a lot more sense to me considering his actions and words throughout this war. Now does that mean I am certain the war is over? Absolutely not. There's still a high risk that both sides don't reach a deal, Iran is emboldened by their successes this past month, and Trump does not want to get embarrassed, so there are many ways this can go wrong. Iran's IRGC need to accept some conscessions to give Trump a POLITICAL win. Trump has already accepted Iran won the war, and that they will come out in a stronger regional position at the detriment of Israel, and I think he's fine with that, as long as it's not embarrassing for him politically. I do however believe more pragmatic heads will prevail, and at most we will only see limited strikes before a permanent peace deal. I included all the links to my posts above in the comments below, and you can also see them in the HIGHLIGHTS section of my account, I keep them all. Hope this helps

The first California’s Governor debate since Eric Swalwell’s departure will be this Wednesday, April 22 at 7 PM PT! Stay tuned!

President Trump will be reading the Bible, specifically 2 Chronicles 7:11–22, in the Oval Office on Tuesday, April 21, between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. ET.

Sheeeeeit. All on black? Mil soon 🫶

🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump has just ordered the U.S. Navy to find and stop any ship that has paid Iran a toll to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Also, “effective immediately" the U.S. will blockade ships trying to enter or leave the strait. Source: AP