SR

@quant_arb an arb for mice?

i smell an arb

@JungleJorge2 @0xRicker 🤡

@0xRicker He's a legend. My system is based entirely on his.

This HFT bot is about to cross $1M profit trading 5-min BTC markets and making $10,000/day I traced his trades using Claude → backtested the strategy on 72M trades dataset the edge is that he runs both sides of the same window at once, then lets a probability model decide where the real money is that's the floor. the edge on top is directional: edge = fair_prob - market_price for each window the bot estimates the true probability BTC moves a direction in the next few minutes then fades the crowd when the price disagrees. that's why his fills run from 21¢ longshots to 99¢ near-locks across BTC and ETH Profile: @bonereaper?r=joinjoinjoin" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@bonereaper?r=…

@variance_lover thanks for sharing

One advantage I haven’t seen many people talking about: liquidity providers are now incentivised to consolidate their trading into a single account. This means exploiters who constantly rotate their accounts are at a structural disadvantage. Interested to see if this changes the dynamic after the rollout.

@variance_lover ohio

@variance_lover @cz_binance you are harboring illegal activities, please check this out

@AgustinLebron3 knowing the symbol but not the underlying

The best part of being a systematic quant is not even looking at your holdings.

I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day. The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt. Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading. Meanwhile, communication is a joke. They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs. They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest. They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t. At some point you stop believing anything they say. The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this. Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase. How dumb do you think your users are? And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage. The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book. People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months. Ignored. Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable: – ghost fills – manipulation – unreliable payouts – constant bugs – zero transparency And surprise, volume is dropping. Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems. I want Polymarket to succeed. And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around. You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment. @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_

@seemeohan btw they did acknowledge the manipulation/print hammering in Jan or Feb. Infact, they even worked with chainlink to try and improve it however this didnt yield anything

@variance_lover i hate variance type of post

@Toyota you can have this one for free; make an advert of your pickup truck not driving over a lambo

@W98AB morally ambiguous approaches

What’s the secret ingredient?

@larpcapitalwc hes not wrong

I once asked a scalper if he could recommend a book on market microstructure and he said “the order book” lmao

tldr: how to get away with your 200 million hack? Send a small percentage to a NK wallet so they can take the blame

@WaynesWorldza @Polymarket @Kalshi sent you a dm

If you're a @Polymarket or @Kalshi trader/MM that's comfortable eating a bit of glass please DM me! We got something to hide your flow and significantly reduce your fees. Early adopters will be rewarded. Obviously.

@Polymarket clob?

We price the future. Now you can lever it. Perps are coming to Polymarket. Sign up for early access 👇

@probabilitygod class move tbh, push back at Hyperliquid with the regulatory arb on their main product

polymarket launching perps on everything is a massive move they already offer options exposure across a wide range of asset classes (crypto, stocks, commodities, politics, culture, etc.) and now they’re layering leverage on top of that this is a pretty chad move ngl also timing is key here since hyperliquid pushing into event contracts (hip-4) made polymarket’s position as the dominant onchain prediction market platform look somewhat vulnerable. and now polymarket comes back by introducing the exact product hyperliquid is known for which is perps polymarket now has the potential to evolve into a real "home of finance" layer, where event contracts act as the connective tissue across assets and perps add the velocity/leverage

@Polymarket poly <-> hyperliquid <-> kalshi

@APompliano You can buy direct rates exposure on CME via FF & SFR so not the best example, but yes prediction markets good

I believe prediction markets are going to become a much larger aspect of financial markets in the coming years. Today these markets are full of young people gambling on stupid things like what words are mentioned at a press conference, what color tie someone wears to an event, or if certain cultural events occur or not. 

These types of childish markets will either be regulated away or they will fall in relevance as more traditional finance-related markets become the dominant use case.

The most interesting part of prediction markets for investors is the ability to isolate individual data points in their capital allocation strategy. Rather than having to buy indirect exposure to interest rates, prediction markets allow you to exclusively bet on what the exact interest rate will be at the next Fed meeting. Rather than buying or selling various assets in anticipation of a recession, prediction markets allow you to directly bet on whether a recession happens or not. And prediction markets also allow you to wager capital on individual earnings report data points (ex: Tesla car deliveries) instead of having to buy a company’s stock and take the full exposure to the entire earnings report. An obvious use case for these types of markets would be farmers who are looking to leverage prediction markets as a replacement for their current hedging or insurance strategies. Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the world, recently announced their intention to double down on commodities for these use cases.

Given my belief in prediction markets for investors, and @Kalshi’s agreement in the same theme, I am excited to announce this morning that Kalshi has partnered with ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: $BRR) to launch a dedicated institutional-grade research offering that will exclusively cover prediction markets. This new product is available to any paying members of ProCap Insights, our agentic research offering. We have been using our agentic AI research system to dig through the Kalshi data over the last few days and the findings are incredibly interesting. We have found numerous times where Kalshi traders called the bluff on Wall Street analysts and were right. We have found significantly mispriced markets on Kalshi and traditional exchanges. And we have found economic data points that were confirmed on Kalshi days before they were reported in the legacy system.

I believe the combination of agentic AI with prediction market data will help investors be better informed, while positioning them to make more money. Our team is excited about this partnership and looking forward to sharing the various insights we find. 

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Reuters the following about our partnership: “prediction markets turn uncertainty about real-world events into actionable signals. We’re partnering with ProCap Financial to bring wisdom-of-the-crowds intelligence directly to financial research, so both retail and institutional investors can benefit from this data and analysis.” You can subscribe to read the research: procapinsights.com

Great to see more literature on prediction markets! You argue for welfare loss due to smaller traders being slow to hedge when information arrives, however there is the same problem in tradfi markets. This balance of tradfi markets between hft and non hft exists due to participants trading in different horizons, eg an investor going long s&p cares about daily/weekly/monthly moves not the microseconds. Thus its more beneficial for the cost of the initial trade to be less, where increased liquidity, book depth and tighter spreads reduce this cost.

We just published What Happens When Institutional Liquidity Enters Prediction Markets. We think this is a timely question for the field. As prediction markets increasingly become venues shaped by institutional liquidity, the research agenda has to move beyond forecast accuracy and engage more directly with execution quality, market structure, and trader welfare.