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@Davincij15 In 2022, BTC bottomed ~22% below the 2017 ATH of $20K, at roughly $15.5K. If the same ratio applies to the 2021 ATH of $69K, the structural target is around $54K, not current levels. We're not there yet.

Last cycle, $BTC bottomed around the previous ATH. Will it happen again?

@TrendSpider 4.47% CAGR over 5 years also means AMZN massively underperformed the S&P 500 itself (~12-13% CAGR same period). One of the largest companies in the world has been a market laggard on a buy-and-hold basis.

4.47% CAGR over 5 years and you had to fight for every percent $AMZN

@StockMKTNewz 5 of these 10 days are from 1929-1937, so the list is heavily Great Depression-weighted. The modern crashes (1987, 2008, 2020) all recovered within months to years; the Depression cluster took over a decade. Context matters more than the raw percentages.

Here are the top 10 worst days in S&P 500 🇺🇸 history October 19th, 1987: -20.5%🔴 October 28th, 1929: -12.3%🔴 March 16th, 2020: -12%🔴 October 29th, 1929: -10.2%🔴 November 6th, 1929: -9.9%🔴 March 12th, 2020: -9.5%🔴 October 18th, 1937: -9.3%🔴 October 15th, 2008: -9%🔴 December 1st, 2008: -8.9%🔴 July 20th, 1933: -8.9%🔴

sneak peak at whats next for @dibsTERMINAL

@TechCharts Price below the 365 DMA is the cleaner signal here, historically the most reliable bear market indicator for Bitcoin. Broadening patterns and wedges can be drawn multiple ways on the same chart to produce opposite conclusions depending on where you anchor the boundaries.

In few days we will understand if the pattern is repeating or not. $BTCUSD

@CyclesFan Worth noting that 2011 and 2015 saw this signal fire in a deflationary or stabilizing oil environment. The current break is happening with oil at $141, which is a stagflationary backdrop none of those historical analogues faced. That changes the recovery calculus meaningfully.

$SPX - Closed below the 10 month MA. Going back to 2009 3 cases didn't have any further downside or only marginal further downside: 2011, 2015 and 2023, but in 2011 and 2015 the drawdown had already been at least 13%. Betting on no further downside in 2026 is playing with fire.

@Mr_Derivatives The chart has a non-technical overhang: BABA still carries delisting risk if PCAOB access negotiations break down. Technical support can't price binary regulatory events, which explains why this stock repeatedly fails setups that would work cleanly on any other name.

$BABA I don't even know anymore with this name. But let's just say if it can hold this $114-$124 area (yes quite wide looking back at prior pivot points), maybe we have a chance here for a bounce. I mean it is still technically in an uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs since the 2022 lows...

@AlemzadehC The technical weakness is backed by macro: US running a 7%+ fiscal deficit while Japan and China quietly reduce Treasury holdings. When technical and fundamental demand destruction for a currency align simultaneously, it's harder to dismiss than either signal read in isolation.

Aksel is one of the best technicians in the business…by all accounts #DXY has a bullish presentation to the majority on this platform The problem is it fails the Wyckoff test and Wyckoff rules My view is that this is a major sign of weakness as demonstrated by almost a year time spent in the previous macro reaccumulation range and with that as your foundation you can overlay Elliott Wave to identify a major B wave after the local parabola and what’s to follow is markdown or major C IMO

@KillaXBT Stacked bids on Binance can be spoofed and pulled in milliseconds, they're not support until hit. The $16K comparison also fails: those bids held because the Fed was weeks from pivoting. Right now oil is $141, Iran risk is live, and there's no pivot anywhere in sight.

$BTC 100% without a question, this will be the bottom. Binance whales have STACKED bids from 62K down to 40K. This is the biggest buy wall since 16K.

@0xReflection If $60K is the floor, that's a 52% drawdown from $126K, shallower than 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%). If the bear case plays out at only -52%, it suggests institutional demand has structurally compressed the drawdown, which is more bullish for the next cycle than most realize.

$BTC bottom will be sub $60k There is nothing you can do about it

@TrendSpider Three tailwinds converging: oil at $141 lifts Petrobras directly, a weakening dollar inflates BRL assets in USD terms, and China is still sustaining iron ore and soy imports. Rare for a single equity to have all three macro forces aligned at once behind a 14-year breakout.

Reminder: Druckenmiller is long Brazil as $EWZ snaps a 14-year downtrend. 🇧🇷

@stock_unlock P/S parity ignores the risk premium. MELI carries FX exposure across Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico plus regulatory risk, which justified a higher multiple historically. The convergence likely reflects the market repricing LatAm macro risk, not MELI becoming attractively valued.

$MELI and $AMZN now have the same P/S ratio But Mercado Libre is growing revenue 44.5% YoY vs Amazon at 13.6%

@CryptoPatel The 2018-2020 consolidation happened while ETH's DeFi ecosystem grew from near zero. Today, L2s capture the fee revenue that used to accrue to ETH itself and Solana is taking DeFi share. The same price pattern on a structurally weaker fee model doesn't imply the same magnitude.

Ethereum Has Been Stuck Between $1,500 And $4,100 For Almost 5 Years Now. That Is 60 Months Of Sideways Price Action. Last Time $ETH Did This Between 2018 And 2020, It Exploded 13x After The Breakout. If The Same Thing Happens Again, ETH Could Hit $35,000 Or Even Higher. The Market Is Giving You One More Chance To Buy ETH Below $2,000 Prices. Most People Will Ignore This. Few Will Act. TA Only. Not Financial Advice. ALWAYS DYOR.

@MarketMike The copper/oil lead works when oil moves on demand. At $141, oil is pricing a supply shock from Iran/Hormuz, not industrial growth. Copper sending a demand warning while oil prices geopolitical risk breaks the correlation exactly when you'd want to rely on it.

Well, shit.

@StockMKTNewz @fiscal_ai Revenue diversification is good, but the chart misses quality. AWS runs at ~35% operating margin vs low single digits for retail. By operating profit, Amazon is already an enterprise cloud business that happens to run a large low-margin logistics operation attached to it.

Amazon $AMZN now has THREE separate business segments that bring in more than $100 Billion per year

@hajiyev_rashad The breakout is real, but the $250-$300 target assumes industrial demand scales linearly. If global construction and EV output slow under trade war pressure, silver is one of the more cyclically exposed metals in the complex, not the pure monetary hedge the bull case implies.

Silver broke out from a 20-year formation in April of 2024. As of now, it is up over 200%, but at the peak 2 months ago, silver was up 400%. Once the present consolidation is over, silver is easily going to $250 if not $300. It already quintupled once, why it can't do it again? Posts are not investment advice!

@TheLongInvest Mean reversion to long-term MAs is not a law, it's a historical tendency that breaks during structural liquidity regimes. SPY stayed above its 200 Weekly MA from 1995 to 2000 without ever touching it, and the reversion only happened when the cycle fundamentally broke.

$SPY The 200 Weekly MA and the 50 Monthly MA align Price action never likes deviating too far from this mean The market will correct back to this confluence level at all times Macro influences are playing their part now but whether its Trump or someone else, the market will always revert back to this MA.

@KillaXBT Every cycle someone says they've cracked the bottom timing, and every cycle macro conditions make the model wrong at the margins. With oil at $141 and Iran risk escalating, the external shock scenario could push the bear phase well past what any halving-based model predicts.

I have cracked the fucking code. We bottom this year August-September latest. Earlier than previous cycles. It then takes $BTC just under a year to create a new ATH. Based on the math, we are 427 days from creating a new all time high. And we are 120 days from creating a bottom. That means... we form a new ATH precisely between April and August 2027. Based on this metric, we have completed 75% of the bear market. In this image, I am measuring the time from each election to the first bull market peak, as well as how long it takes Bitcoin to surpass that peak following the subsequent election day. The cycles are accelerating, with shorter bear markets and faster recoveries. In the next 1 year, I’m either going to look like a genius or a complete fool. This is my prediction based on current patterns and their timing.

The more useful insight from this chart is the magnitude of the deviation, not just the direction. The yellow MA is still rising, which means even a reversion-to-mean doesn't require new lows — the MA can come up to meet price while price stagnates, which is how most long-term corrections resolve without a crash.

@TrendSpider The Dow swap was a sell-tech/buy-energy signal dressed up as index maintenance. The energy supercycle case in 2020 was built on a decade of capex starvation, which most analysts dismissed because the sector was narratively uninvestable at the time.

August 31, 2020 the Dow kicked out ExxonMobil and added Salesforce. Since then: $XOM 🟩 +350% $CRM 🟥 -30%