dibsTERMINAL

@AlgoIndexCom Exactly!

@dibsTERMINAL The disconnect between macro data and market reaction has been the story all year. ADP misses, small biz gets crushed, but SPX finds bids because bad data means the Fed has to pivot sooner. It won't last forever though, at some point earnings actually reflect the damage.

The U.S. Treasury just bought back $15 billion of its own debt in a single operation — one of the largest in history. Wall Street calls it “normalization.” I call it stealth QE in a market that is already flashing stagflation warnings.

Question for the timeline: Are these Treasury buybacks actually buying time… or are they just accelerating the loss of faith in U.S. debt? What’s the one data point or auction result that would make you change your mind? Drop your take — I’m reading every reply.

The chart is never the whole story. What we’re watching is the slow-motion transition from “free market” auctions to full-on government-managed liquidity — all while everyone pretends it’s just “technical.” This is how confidence erodes quietly… until it doesn’t.

@VersanAljarrah This conflates two operations. Treasury buybacks are pre-announced liquidity management tools, not a backup when auctions fail. Regular note auctions still clear with competitive bids. Calling a scheduled buyback "no buyers showed up" misreads the mechanics entirely.

No buyers showed up at the Treasury auction, so the U.S. bought $15B of its own debt. That’s not a functioning market. That’s intervention. Next comes the playbook: inject liquidity, justify it with war, inflate assets, maintain the illusion. This is how the system survives.

@elerianm Round Three is the stagflation trap: the Fed can't cut with oil and mortgage rates elevated, but can't hike into a war-driven demand slowdown. The circuit breaker is unlikely to come from policy since fiscal is already stretched. That leaves the market as the pressure valve.

The economic and financial fallout of the War for US households includes: Round One: The immediate impact of surging gas prices and more expensive mortgages (below from Bloomberg News). Round Two: Almost a certainty by now, a broader hit to the cost of living. Absent a significant "circuit breaker" or an end to the conflict, the third round would involve lower economic growth and a higher risk of unsettling financial instability. #economy #markets #middleeastwar

@cryptorand Most of the Solana volume spike is USDC cycling through DEX and memecoin trades, not new issuance or real-economy use. Adjusted volume counts the same dollar multiple times per trade. The chain-shift to Solana is real, but the $1.8T headline overstates actual economic activity.

Stablecoin volumes went from $350B/mo to $1.8T/mo in under two years. Solana taking the lead from Ethereum and Tron in a blink

@TheShortBear Reserve currency status requires a current account deficit, meaning the US must export dollars, not goods. Any serious manufacturing revival shrinks that deficit and reduces dollar supply for global reserves. You can't reshore and keep reserve currency status.

It is a very hard situation to handle for Bessent. 1. The manufacturing push by Trump needs exports to be competitive, meaning a weaker dollar to given for manufacturing in US to be competitive on the world stage. -> Weaker dollar = Stronger incentives to sell. 2. The disregard for allies in this war led to collocations to be weakened and the Us threatening leaving NATO is leading partners to reconsider the US-debt as something they want on the balance sheet. -> Weaker alliances = Treasuries being sold 3. As the US needs to refinance 30% of $30 trillion USD over the next 2 years, they are caught. As allies and Asia sell USD and Treasuries, yields spike higher, making it very expensive to refinance the debt. -> Higher refinance rate = Inflate USD to repay debt. 4. Add to it a potentially weakening of the petro-dollar, credit stress and a potential recession... This war will cost way way more than almost everyone sees, the Oil is the tip of the iceberg.

@TedPillows The signal works until it doesn't. Both prior bottoms were supply-driven oil drops where demand stayed intact. If oil hits $65 this time via demand destruction, buying stocks into that signal means catching a falling knife. The why behind the level matters more than the level.

The best time to start buying stocks is when Oil drops below $65. We are not there yet.

@LizAnnSonders @AdpResearch Beating a depressed estimate isn't the same as strength. The chart shows ADP trending near multi-year lows in absolute terms, and +62k is well below 2022-2023 run rates regardless of the beat. Watch the small business component in tomorrow's BLS print for confirmation.

March @ADPresearch private employment +62k vs. +40k est. & +66k prior (rev up from +63k)

@GoldForecast The chart shows market price running above the fundamental model, which is the opposite setup for a "fake" downside. When spot is already above fair value, corrections tend to be real, not head fakes. The bullish case needs a catalyst that re-rates the fundamental.

Gold is currently faking a downside move, don't trust it. It's going higher.👆

@OilCfd Extreme backwardation — physical at a steep premium to the futures curve. Paper traders are pricing in demand destruction by year-end while physical buyers are paying up today. That spread tells you more about the real supply crunch than the spot price does.

On real life // On tinder

@goldseek The rising Gold/Silver ratio is the tell — silver is being liquidated faster than gold. When GSR rises on a metals down day, it's typically forced risk-off selling, not strategic positioning. If the geopolitical bid for gold holds, the recovery tends to see silver outperform.

Precious metals rejecting the Trump smash job. Reversing most of its losses, will we end up green on the day?

@graddhybpc Oil at $110 today actually strengthens the uranium thesis — energy security anxiety accelerates policy toward nuclear buildout globally. SPUT breaking out vs. S&P during an oil shock is the exact macro backdrop the uranium bulls have been waiting for since 2023.

Uranium miners did 580% in its baby bull move.☢️ The 2nd bull move is so far 228% in the making. And now, the chart below shows that the uranium price proxy vehicle "SPUT" has broken out and backtested vs the general stock market (SPX). A very stylish and beautiful setup indeed. Also, as posted previously, the uranium ETF URA is in huge breakout-mode vs SPX, from a very symmetrical, blue, bullish 9-year inverse head & shoulders pattern. This is big, since it means that the uranium sector will now outperform the stock market going forward. This glorious commodities bull market will be the greatest opportunity in your lifetime to get out of the rat race. As said now since called the commodities lows 6 years ago => DO NOT MISS IT! #uranium Caught all major lows & highs on the service for uranium since calling the 2020 bear market low in real-time. Try doing that without charts!☢️ Means we also caught the Trump tariff lows back in April 2025, which was the backtest for the chart below => technicals done right means you can catch the very lows (regardless of what others say about that, it is very doable). And down the road, commodities will be the only game in town. #joinus at graddhy.com for real guidance during the whole bull market Go with the service that has, actually, been on track all along. Following the right people is absolutely vital.

@BowesChay The Dubai angle is more revealing than the Iran war headline. Dubai typically benefits from regional instability as capital flows in. If LVMH is seeing a drop there, it signals a broader Gulf spending freeze — wealth preservation mode, not just war-zone disruption.

The shares of Louis Vuitton's owner, LVMH, fell by almost 30% over the quarter due to the war in Iran and a drop in sales in Dubai. This is the worst result in the company's history since 1989 even in 2008-2009. Ferrari's shares also fell, as the company suffered from logistical problems that led to a decline in sales.

@MichaelPBento Japan imports ~90% of its energy from the Middle East through Hormuz. JGB yields at 30-year highs plus an oil shock puts the BOJ in an impossible position — raising rates into an energy crisis accelerates the fiscal stress they're already managing.

While everyone is distracted by the gyrations of oil and SPY, the 10-Year JGB just made a new high to a level not seen in over 30 years. Japan's economy is on the precipice, and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed is going to break it. Global markets are intertwined, so if Japan breaks then it will have contagion effect on us. I don't make the rules that's just the way it is.

@GOLDCOUNCIL Poland at +20t is the standout. They've been one of Europe's most aggressive CB accumulators for two years, buying well before the current geopolitical stress. February's data confirms this is structural reserve diversification, not panic-buying driven by today's headlines.

Central banks remained firm on gold in February, buying a net 19t. This map shows the key buyers and sellers through the month.