Mohammed Elgrj

Update on the Sharara–Al Rayayina corridor: As maintenance teams began clearing the lines and draining residual oil, evidence confirmed a deliberate sabotage attempt. A 250 kg explosive device was recovered yesterday. Today, further indicators suggest additional devices may still be buried beneath the valve area. Operations have been immediately suspended. The Petroleum Facilities Guard has secured the site, with EOD units, counter-terror teams, and the Attorney General’s office expected to intervene. NOC, Akakus, and all operators will not proceed under conditions where undetected explosives may remain in place. This development reinforces earlier warnings: Libya’s energy infrastructure is facing sustained, multi-layered pressure — not isolated incidents.

Caution. What we are seeing is not random. Attempts to disable Libya’s energy system are escalating in sequence: – The Russian tanker incident near offshore assets triggered emergency alerts but didn’t fully succeed. – Attacks on valves in El Feel, Akakus, and Hamada disrupted output but were contained. – Tensions around valve zones peaked without full shutdown. – Now, pressure is shifting directly toward gas infrastructure. If contained, the next front could be the Oil Crescent. There is a clear pattern: systematic pressure to deny Libya a historic window to recover its losses, exploiting local fears across the western region and oil zones to trigger internal disruption. Every day of reduced or halted production benefits actors who profit from instability—financially and geopolitically. Libya is no longer on the sidelines. It sits at the intersection of the Russia–Ukraine war and the wider Middle East conflict. Without strategic awareness and competent political-economic management, the risk is not just economic loss—but becoming a conflict arena.

Breaking Unconfirmed reports indicate that gas flows at the Mellitah complex may have been halted after protesters allegedly shut down the pipeline, citing the Government of National Unity’s failure to address the drifting Russian tanker. According to these reports, protesters are warning that the vessel is approaching the coast near Zuwara, raising concerns over a potential environmental risk, amid what they describe as a lack of effective response so far.

Russian tanker update: The drifting tanker is moving at ~1.1 knots toward Zuwara, having passed the Sabratha offshore platform and currently sailing near the Valy rig. If weather conditions persist, it is expected to reach the Zuwara coast. The attached map shows its current position. Libyan authorities confirm communication with the tanker owner and the Russian ambassador to coordinate next steps. At present, there is no immediate risk to oil infrastructure.

I stand in solidarity with Libyan civil and political activist Mahdi Abdulati from Misrata, known for his outspoken criticism of government policies, his live broadcasts exposing issues around Arkno Oil, and alleged corruption within the banking sector. Mahdi has been missing since yesterday under unclear circumstances after leaving a café in Misrata. His safety must be urgently clarified. Silence is not an option.

Oil on fire — but the real issue runs deeper: failing infrastructure, weak security, and delayed maintenance now surfacing all at once. Firefighters are containing the flames. The system itself remains at risk.

Developments at Libya’s Sharara oil field point to a recurring pattern: disruptions tend to coincide with rising oil prices—often around March. This is not incidental. It reflects structural vulnerability. Vast pipeline networks with weak surveillance, deteriorating infrastructure, and reduced field security create conditions where both technical failures and sabotage become more likely. The decline in the Petroleum Facilities Guard has significantly lowered on-ground protection and monitoring capacity. Fewer patrols, limited response capability, and aging assets are now converging into systemic risk. These risks were formally flagged months ago. Incidents previously reported near Al Rayayina, and now along the same corridor, confirm a broader issue: under-maintained pipelines with minimal oversight. Whether this latest event is a leak or deliberate damage, it is unlikely to be the last without immediate intervention. Libya’s oil infrastructure is not just an energy asset—it is the backbone of national stability. Strengthening field security, deploying smart monitoring systems, and restoring maintenance cycles are no longer optional.

Libya’s dinar isn’t weakening because of speculation — it’s being shaped by fiscal arithmetic. In my latest piece for Libya Economic Review, I break down how a $9bn FX gap and rising liquidity are driving exchange rate pressure. Read here:

Major offshore gas discovery in Libya. @eni confirms two new gas finds — BESS-2 and BESS-3 — holding over 1 Tcf of gas, located near the Bahr Essalam field offshore Libya. The proximity to existing infrastructure means fast-track development is possible, strengthening Libya’s gas supply to the domestic market and Europe via the Mediterranean corridor. A significant milestone for Libya’s energy sector in cooperation with @NOC_Libya.

Libya’s exchange rate problem is not speculation. It is arithmetic. In 2025 Libya used about $31B in FX while oil revenues were roughly $22B — a $9B structural gap. When dollar demand exceeds supply by that margin, the exchange rate must adjust. My latest analysis explains the mechanics behind Libya’s FX gap.

Libya’s Silent Arms Economy According to leaked excerpts from the 2024-2025 UN Panel of Experts report — not yet officially published — documented shipments include ~38m fast patrol vessels, armored vehicles, drone components, and repeated air cargo movements. Using conservative market benchmarks, direct acquisition costs for 2024–2025 likely range between $100–150 million, potentially reaching $200 million in an upper scenario. But procurement prices are only part of the equation. Once transport risk premiums, insurance layers, brokerage margins, logistical opacity, and indirect financing costs are accounted for, the broader economic footprint of this cycle could move toward the billion-dollar range. This is not only a security issue. It is a balance-of-payments issue. A liquidity issue. A structural allocation issue. The real question is not who imported what. It is how much economic capacity Libya is absorbing into a silent arms race — and what that means for the years ahead.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation Freezes Spending Amid Budget Paralysis On 23 February 2026, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (@NOC_Libya) issued an official directive suspending major financial and operational activities across all affiliated companies and entities. The decision follows the approval of less than 25% of the required 2024 budget and the complete absence of approved budgets for 2025 and 2026. Effective immediately, the NOC has: •Suspended all procurement and purchasing procedures. •Prohibited new financial commitments before budget approval. •Ordered negotiations with drilling contractors to remain on unpaid standby if necessary. •Frozen all financial transfers to companies and offices abroad, regardless of purpose. The stated objective is to preserve operational continuity without creating uncovered financial obligations. This directive signals severe liquidity pressure within Libya’s most critical economic institution. Three consecutive years without a functional budget have forced the NOC into strict cash-preservation mode, operating at minimum expenditure levels while reportedly facing growing liabilities to foreign service companies. The move comes amid prolonged political deadlock and deepening economic strain in the country. For many observers, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of financial hardship for Libya, as institutional paralysis increasingly translates into operational and fiscal contraction.

A UNDP Libya staff member from the Procurement Unit publicly attacked my work — not my opinion — but a documented analysis based on verified financial data from the Central Bank of Libya. My report exposed: • 81.6 million LYD spent on “Public Policy Units” across Libya’s executive branches. • The uninterrupted presence of Nouri Al-Abbarr (PM’s Office) and Mohammed Al-Darrat (Presidency Council) across every government from 2018–2025. • Zero published policies, zero national strategies, zero sectoral reforms — despite millions spent. • A structural anomaly where governments fall, but the same unelected policy core remains untouched. Instead of addressing the numbers, a UNDP procurement officer (Hussam Baggar) accused me of producing a “paid article.” A procurement official undermining evidence-based reporting is not a harmless comment — it is a breach of: • UNDP Code of Conduct • Political Neutrality Policy • Procurement Integrity Rules • Anti-Defamation Standards • UNDP Social Media Guidelines So I ask publicly — to @UNDPLibya, @UNDP, @UNArabStates, and @UN: Why does evidence-based reporting on Libya’s policy-making structures trigger a personal attack from a UNDP procurement officer? And what does this imply about the ecosystem surrounding these policy units?

Shocking Data Analysis: Every 13 Hours, a Migrant Pays $10,000 to Survive in Libya. My investigation of official data from the Libyan Attorney General (Jan–Nov 2025) reveals an alarming economy of ransom and death. 📊 The numbers tell the story: •498 migrants paid an average of $10,000 each to be released from detention. •Total ransom paid: $4.98 million. •106 migrants died despite payment. •86 bodies found buried in the desert. •That’s one ransom every 13 hours. 📍 From official cases: •Al-Wahat (Jan 2025): 263 Somalis forced to pay $17,000 each — $4.47M total. •Zalla (Jun 2025): 235 Eritrean & Sudanese migrants — $2.35M total. •Together: 498 lives, half saved, many lost. 🩸 Human cost (calculated from 275 official days = 6,570 hours): •Every 13 hours, one person buys life. •Every 3 days, $24,000 in ransom changes hands. •Every 4 days, a migrant dies. •Every 11 days, a new mass grave is found. •Every 15 days, 40 foreigners gain fake Libyan citizenship. This analysis is based entirely on official Attorney General statements, compiled and quantified line by line. It exposes how Libya’s human trafficking and ransom trade evolved into a $5M shadow economy in 2025 alone. These aren’t statistics — they’re lives sold by the hour. #Libya #HumanTrafficking #Migration #DataJournalism #HumanRights #AttorneyGeneral #MohamedAlgarj #InvestigativeData

In a critical moment where @UNSMILibya is preparing a new “structured dialogue” for Libya’s political future — it was essential to first understand the real structure of the Mission itself. A days ago, I published on Facebook — as the first Libyan and Arab journalist — a detailed exposé based entirely on the UN’s own internal audit report (OIOS Report 2024/048). The report reveals shocking systemic failures: ▪️ No operational plan in 13 years. ▪️ 26% of posts vacant — 51 unfilled for 2 years. ▪️ Hiring takes 386 days on average. ▪️ One security contract since 2015, never re-tendered or evaluated. ▪️ Financial inconsistencies across UN systems. ▪️ Weak oversight and accountability. The same Mission that calls on Libyans to apply transparency and good governance — operates without a finalized mission concept or financial control. Many Libyan politicians have avoided discussing it, fearing exclusion from the upcoming UN-led talks. But silence is complicity. If the Mission itself is structurally flawed, how can it credibly lead national reform? I believe the path to a genuine political solution in Libya must begin by correcting the foundation — starting with accountability and transparency inside @UNSMILibya itself. #Libya #UNSMIL #Transparency #OIOS #Accountability

📢 The UN internal audit report on #UNSMIL (Libya) for 2025 is late for the first time since 2021. Last year’s audit — OIOS 2024/048 — was published on 10 Oct 2024. As of 25 Oct 2025, no new report appears on oios.un.org. Transparency delayed is accountability denied. cc: @UN_DPA @UNPeacekeeping @UN_OIOS @antonioguterres @UNSMILibya @UN_News_Centre @LibyaUN #Libya #UNSMIL #Accountability #Transparency

A precise reading of Libya’s core crisis: the problem isn’t the absence of solutions, but an elite that treats power as spoils, not responsibility. Real change won’t come from within the system — it will come from a collective awareness that redefines legitimacy and leadership.

In the past two months, I have observed an unprecedented escalation in the irregular migration crisis. Following the removal of Mohamed Al-Khuja from the Migration Authority, powers have not been transferred to his deputy, Ali Bin Dho, despite his ongoing activity in Bir al-Ghanem and parts of the south. This comes amid the absence of clear leadership, widespread presence of migrants and viral videos from streets and detention centers, growing clashes with locals, and a major wave of public anger. The file is spiraling out of control without effective management.

🚨 Press freedom in Libya under attack. I was fired from Libya Al-Ahrar TV under government pressure after exposing corruption. Now my colleague, journalist Hossam Alwahishi, is being blackmailed: submit to @Dabaibahamid’s corrupt rule — or be denied medical treatment. Meanwhile, @ItalyinLibya @Palazzo_Chigi hand out private jets & instant visas for criminals and officials, but abandon free journalists. This is complicity. This is a war on truth. @eu_eeas — will you stay silent? #علاج_الصحفي_حسام_الوحيشي

🌍 The Climate Paradox @PresidencyLY Mohamed al-Menfi attended 5 major climate summits during his term (Stockholm+50, COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh, Africa Climate Summit Nairobi, COP28 Dubai, COP29 Baku). Yet these flights alone emitted 8–10 tons CO₂e. He went to “protect the climate”… but his carbon footprint was the main outcome. #Libya #ClimateParadox #COP

11 months abroad. Up to $18M spent. All from the official Presidential FB page (analyzed). Since Mar 2021, @PresidencyLY Mohamed al-Menfi made 57 trips to 29 countries → 486 flight hours (~20 days in the air) & 339 days away from Libya. If oil & energy contracts face review, why not the Presidential travel bill too? #Libya #Transparency #Accountability