@conorsen That said I think the SNL skit is a signal, reflects the kind of "Trump16-Trump20-Trump24" voter that might be over him. But I can see why Dems would be cautious they can finally flip this kind of voter.
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Nate Hashem
3.8K posts
@conorsen The Harris campaign was premised on these areas having "Haley (primary) voters" that would provide at least some votes net 2020. Unfortunately this didn't happen - felt like 2024 was proof the Dems maxed out on Bulwark Republicans...
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I can’t prove this, but among Georgia Dems there was a lot of excitement about the kinds of suburban places/seats they could flip in 2018 but there’s more wariness/less enthusiasm about the next tier of outer suburban seats they’d need to flip the state House in 2026.
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin
One issue with states that have been dominated by one party for generations is that there’s a certain amount of negative selection that occurs for people who pursue a career in politics in the minority party
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@conorsen This tail-end risk is always where Trump gets exposed, as we saw during COVID. Wouldn't be surprised if FEMA eats shit at some point either.
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90% of the time the Fed can run itself — markets are calm, maybe you raise or lower rates by 25bps. The importance of a Chair is in times of crisis and Warsh has failed that test over and over again. Perhaps it won’t be an issue this year, but at some point it will be.
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@ReubenR80027912 Eh, GOP has angrily declared a refusal to enforce gun laws since Sandy Hook. One of many examples of "sanctuary city policy, but for gun laws":
9news.com/article/news/l…
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America’s success is NOT b/c we’re a “nations of laws”. Such thing never has been or can be true
Instead we were a nation that mostly agreed on which laws were to enforced or not while also agreeing to pretend this wasn’t how it goes
But no longer apparently
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This again goes back to Covid & 2020 being disastrous for exposing a fact we all pretend isn’t true but is: Laws aren’t real
They are enforced capriciously and mostly function as a patina to just do whatever a given leader wants
But society depends on not OPENLY showing this
Ian Miller@ianmSC
It is absolutely insane that mayors can say things like “we will not enforce federal immigration law” and everyone, especially the media, just shrugs and acts like this is acceptable
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@NickyFrank30 The actual protestors - largely white middle aged resist libs who like brunch - didn't want this though?
Other protests - e.g. with the frog costume in Portland, was much more "both sides performing cosplay and creating content."
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Yep. They both wanted this.
Shane Gilarinjdkjfnf Alexander@MrGChristopher
What's happening in Minnesota is what both MAGA and progressives wanted and voted for last year when they wanted Trump back in office. MAGA gets their authoritarianism and brutality and progressives get to cosplay revolution.
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@NickyFrank30 Friend in LAPD says there was a lot of resentment in how ICE showed up last year.
They'd prefer to work with fed agencies as an equal partner and conduct operations accordingly.
But ICE just shows up and they have no idea where they're targeting or who they're arresting.
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You think rank-and-file cops hate ICE?
drew@ImNotOwned
Dems need to repair relationships with police. Maybe the ICE shit can give us an opening.
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@ReubenR80027912 @UVAFootballFan @Legal_Fil @EsotericCD It needs to be litigated in the campaign.
Dems should make the argument why they should do it, GOP will attack, media will follow up. If the Dem wins then they should get to do it.
Dems have never shown much of an appetite to do things they didn't campaign on.
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@UVAFootballFan @Legal_Fil @EsotericCD I’d say Cons would scream & moan but DC statehood would be accepted by the public
Court packing would be a much harder sell but not republic destroying (at least not as an immediate thing)
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Does anyone (right or left) seriously contest this idea? I've always viewed Supreme Court packing or DC statehood as the "line" and once it's crossed, the American experiment will die a fairly quick death. Legitimacy will vanish.
cc: @Legal_Fil @ReubenR80027912 @EsotericCD
wanye@xwanyex
I think I would probably view packing the court as a signal that the old order is completely dead and from here on out each side should probably just do whatever it takes to win, that winning should be the only principle. I think a lot of people on here are already to that point. I’ve tried to resist it. But, packing the court would be an undeniable escalation toward that end.
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@dhaaruni Also incredibly lame to frame sex as reward husbands get from their wives for commitment or being generous. Half the jokes in 1990s sitcoms were about this.
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@ReubenR80027912 IMO what MAGA hasn't digested yet is the "crybully" attacks of Trump's first term don't work the same. Remember Sarah Huckabee and Red Hen? A whole news cycle about the propriety and civility of serving (or not) someone like her. Or Michelle Wolf's joke about her eyeshadow.
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@ReubenR80027912 It's not about "cojones." At best his DOJ can prosecute them for assault, and we saw how that went with The Sandwich Thrower in DC.
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@conorsen @EconBerger Also not great for the $50K demographic if the "growing pie" effects they're fueling are things like "sports gambling" and "algorithmic streaming."
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@EconBerger I think the issue is we’re not growing the capacity of status goods/experiences — elite college spots, Disney World/Las Vegas, housing in great neighborhoods, etc. To me that’s what the affordability discussion is really about, not the cost of ketchup.
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If population growth is going to be low, and economic growth is going to continue (via productivity), then there’s really no way to quantitatively grow the ranks of the middle class, you’re trying to level-up members of the middle class to something more akin to the UMC.
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@ReubenR80027912 If Renee Good had driven to the ICE detention center in, like, Portland, and had gotten murdered there - then I think what you said would hVr weight.
But these local protests have a first-order purpose - it can alert locals to run, and ICE agents say "fuck this" and leave.
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@ReubenR80027912 Hard disagree, here's why.
It was Renee Good's own neighborhood, protesting ICE agents trying to snatch her neighbors! This is different than e.g. BLM, where protestors yelled at cops in neighborhoods they didn't live in, and the cops weren't doing anything wrong individually.
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This vid is profoundly sad. You can FEEL the nervous excitement of her calling the cop fat. The pose of faked toughness, words & syntax adopted from a culture fully alien to her & worn awkwardly
All pantomime…until it’s not. The true result of the Social Levee en Masse (1/2)
Alpha News@AlphaNews
BREAKING: Alpha News has obtained cellphone footage showing perspective of federal agent at center of ICE-involved shooting in Minneapolis
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@ArmandDoma @RBMEllis @CCantonii Where can you even move to? It's not trivial to get residency in other countries, and almost every country has a MAGA political party that wants to destroy everything I like about liberal society. Might as well stay here and fight.
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@RBMEllis @CCantonii I think we have a lot of problems but I want to fix them, not flee. I couldn’t live anywhere else long run—I’m too deeply American in every way
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talked to my Chinese friend yesterday and she was genuinely confused by why I didn’t want to move out of the US and I was genuinely confused as to why she’d think I could possibly want to. we live in very different information ecosystems
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@ReubenR80027912 Eh I disagree - if you worked at a startup in the 2010s, they could be rich veins to meet those at legacy brands who were potential customers. If you're an adtech company and the Kohl's marketing VP is some boomer, how are you gonna get his budget without pressing flesh?
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Today’s conferences are almost uniformly pay to play slop. If you have the budget, for $50k you can be on stage for a 20 min talk that’s mostly for you to get a professional pic wearing that lame microphone and post it on LinkedIn
No affairs. 2 drinks max. Soulless
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Diff between pre/post ‘08 conferences is wild
The *entire* point of conferences in 90s & 00s was for Boomers & Xers to ruin their lives for a 7 minute tumble w/ a modestly attractive sales rep in an Orlando hotel after a day of wagyu sliders & SVP presentations
No longer (1/2)
Cartoons Hate Her!@CartoonsHateHer
Another true story about my terrible career in tech: I wanted to one-up my work rival by volunteering to attend a (totally bullshit) conference only to discover he was the keynote speaker and I'd be his "assistant" for the day. Link in replies.
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@AlanMCole Gotta update your priors, offenses peaked in 2021. It's been a trend for a few years now:
nbcnews.com/sports/nfl/nfl…
Here's a good video that explains trends in offense and defensive schemes. This doesn't feel like PvE to me!
youtu.be/fGRkKmXGZr8?si…
YouTube
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The more the task is "person against difficulty" than "person against person," the stronger this effect.
In the NFL, guard vs defensive tackle is a reasonably equal PvP. But quarterbacks throwing long passes have more of a PvE element, so offenses get better over time.
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Several sports have a problem that goes like: "our players are getting really really good, and in certain elements of the game even a strong adversary can't impede them, so the outcome converges to perfection, creating unintended game balance problems."
Brian Rosenwald@brianros1
Something has to change in the NFL. I don't what it is. But you can't have teams getting the ball at the 35 on a touchback and needing 15 yards to be in field goal range.
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@TylerDinucci Close second was this.
A lot of libs conflate Boebert and MTG, but there's an obvious class divide if you look at their backgrounds. IMO it says something about a possible division in the MAGA base that could be exploited.
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@dhaaruni @hunter_joh80957 Jack, just say women like Lauren Boebert, this is taking forever.
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@SeanTrende @yeselson @dilanesper Swooping in to personally kill the segment hours before broadcast airing is just amateur bullshit, and why I don't think her objections were in good faith. Does she want to run CBS News or ideologically police and edit news segments? Seems like the latter.
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@SeanTrende @yeselson @dilanesper Then she should've hired editors for 60Min that shared this view and would've been part of the organic editorial process. Someone who would've e.g. pushed to get "both sides" but would've also told Weiss "unless you get WH to comment, we can't offer their side of story."
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I hope this isn't true, because spiking a fully reported, ready for air, fact checked, lawyered story because the brass doesn't like the ideological valence of the reporting is an absolutely terrible precedent to set at a broadcast news operation.
Dylan Byers@DylanByers
UPDATE: The “60 Minutes” segment on CECOT, which reflects very negatively on Trump administration, was fully ready and had been meticulously fact-checked and lawyered. The admin had declined to comment. Bari Weiss saw segment on Friday and, I’m told, decided to hold it.
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