Ayal Frank

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Ayal Frank

Ayal Frank

@AFIntl3

Public affairs world. Washington communications. Do the right thing. Liverpool football to the end.

Washington, DC Joined Kasım 2010
1K Following342 Followers
Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@brianschatz @AlirezaNader So each & every missile & drone fired by the Islamic regime on Bahrain, Israel, the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is a war crime too, correct Senator? Are you prepared to speak to that?
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Brian Schatz
Brian Schatz@brianschatz·
Bombing civilian infrastructure is a war crime, and the time to speak out against it is right now.
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@KamaranMPalani Do you really think the Islamic regime acts based on "justifications?"
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Kamaran Palani
Kamaran Palani@KamaranMPalani·
If this is true, or even if it is not, it will give the IRGC and the militias in Iraq a strong justification to continue their attacks on the Kurdistan Region. Trump does not think about the implications such statements have for the Kurds, or perhaps he even enjoys saying them. Earlier in the war, many statements and reports about a Kurdish offensive inside Iran were completely false. This should also be treated with caution. But as I said, even if it is not true, it is enough to cause further harm to the Kurds in the region.
Clash Report@clashreport

BREAKING: Trump: We sent a lot of guns to the Iranian protesters, we sent guns through the Kurds, I think the Kurds kept them. Source: Fox News

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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@RZimmt Don't always pay attention to what the president says, focus on the actions. Words can be deceptive and some things will not be apparent until they happen.
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Raz Zimmt
Raz Zimmt@RZimmt·
This message goes beyond a basic misunderstanding of the Islamic Republic (“Why hasn’t Iran capitulated yet?”). It is difficult to imagine any country in the world that would surrender to the demands of a president who speaks in such a manner. This is not a matter of strategic assessment or ideological perceptions but rather of a desire to preserve basic dignity. I don't know if the Iranian regime has a breaking point or what it might be. It is clear that the Iranian leadership still assesses that its ability to withstand even the next level of escalation—including attacks on critical infrastructure—is stronger than the ability of its neighbors and the global economy to absorb the expected consequences of such a move. But even if this assessment proves in the coming days to be entirely mistaken and the Iranians become convinced to agree to the U.S. (at least regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue), it is clear that such a message from the president is perceived in Tehran as an expression of desperation on President Trump’s part rather than strength. Such rhetoric certainly does not encourage a willingness to compromise.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah

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Winthrop Rodgers
Winthrop Rodgers@wrodgers2·
Kurdish media consistently makes BAFFLING decisions about who to platform. Kent is a far-right conspiracist now hated by all elements of the US political spectrum, if anyone spared him a thought beyond one news cycle. Chasing negative value here.
Channel 8 English@Channel8English

For the first time, Joe Kent, (@joekent16jan19) former Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, will speak to Channel8, marking his first appearance on Middle Eastern media. @Ahmed_Najm2

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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@glcarlstrom Iran is already a failed state. If the IRGC, the state within the state, can’t make money and the salaries of the security apparatus cannot be paid, the police state will not police. Think Soviet Union. Who is Iran’s Gorbachev?
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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
Exactly this: "The economic consequences of the war, whether debilitating or, under a negotiated settlement, partly reversible, may prove more consequential than the military phase itself." "The current conventional assessments assume that Iran's post-war trajectory will inevitably be one of further hardening... it also overlooks the possibility that hardening may generate not only endurance, but brittleness: a post-war system that appears more entrenched yet is less capable of absorbing internal shocks without fracturing."
Burcu Ozcelik@BurcuAOzcelik

Much of the debate is focused on whether the Islamic Republic endures this war. But in my latest for @RUSI_org I argue that the real test lies in what comes after. Right now, the focus is on short-term timelines: strikes, retaliation, escalation control. But Iran’s future stability will be shaped over a much longer horizon—years, not weeks. The scale of economic damage, the burden of recovery (including vital food and water security) and whether Iran can still access the regional financial ecosystem that has helped it absorb sanctions pressure. The IRGC sits at the centre of this. The IRGC isn’t just a military actor—it’s an economic system. Regime survival is tied not just to ideology, but to entrenched economic interests—networks spanning energy, logistics, and sanctions-era commerce. That can hold things together. It can also fracture under strain. If the UAE and others become less permissive—tightening oversight, closing grey-zone channels—Iran’s room to manoeuvre narrows, and any Iran-GCC reset will come with conditions. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

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Ayal Frank retweeted
Washington Post Opinions
Washington Post Opinions@PostOpinions·
.@IgnatiusPost explains why he believes democracy is possible in Iran. "I'm not saying it's going to happen soon, but I know, from what I've seen, that it's possible." 🔗 Submit a question for David's next chat with readers here: wapo.st/41DSTm1
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@NicoleGrajewski Can you be any more emboldened than a SL who killed tens of thousands of his own people?
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@BarakRavid @jaketapper It is different from other nights: He said the regime killed 45,000, the number may be higher, let that sink in.
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Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid·
Why is this night different from all other nights? It's not. Trump didn't say in his speech anything he didn't say over the last several days
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@ElizHagedorn He said the regime killed 45,000, the number may be higher, let that sink in.
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Elizabeth Hagedorn
Elizabeth Hagedorn@ElizHagedorn·
No new announcements in Trump's Iran address tonight, more a repackaging of his Truth Social posts for primetime Says over next 2-3 weeks, "we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@joshrogin He said the regime killed 45,000, the number may be higher, let that sink in.
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Josh Rogin
Josh Rogin@joshrogin·
So far, Trump hasn’t said one new thing we haven’t heard several times before. Not sure why this warrants bumping prime time TV. He says two or three more weeks of bombing and then the mission will be accomplished. “We are going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong… We’ve never said regime change, but regime change has occurred.” Etc etc
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
Some wars end in draws. Take the point.
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@rmslim If he commanded forces over 40 years ago, retiring is the way to go.
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Dasha Burns
Dasha Burns@DashaBurns·
🚨 NEW from inside Trump world: allies are warning the Iran strategy could backfire. "Now you’ve killed the guy, and the next guy is even more radical. You killed his dad and wife in an airstrike… Do you think he will be more or less reasonable?" ⬆️That’s how a Trump ally describes the risk in Iran right now. Another warning: “Boots on the ground in Iran is the third rail.”
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@lrozen You are sick: as a top aide to the SL, Larijani likely ordered the killing of thousands if not tens of thousands of peaceful protesters, his own countrymen and women, just two months ago!
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Laura Rozen
Laura Rozen@lrozen·
Iranian reporter I met years ago from a religious city tells me he is mourning Larijani, who he knew professionally. and is just very sad.
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@glcarlstrom Don't expect you will see him soon if at all; an injured SL sends a message of weakness & those calling all the shots, the IRGC/mil. establishment, cannot afford that now.
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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
Hegseth is a puffed-up poseur, but don't think we should draw any conclusions about regime strength/resilience from Larijani et al appearing in a live-streamed crowd where it's highly unlikely they'll be targeted It's a PR move, doesn't tell us anything deeper A more notable takeaway from today is that we still haven't seen Mojtaba
Alexander Cornwell@alexjcornwell

Hegseth said Iran's leadership had "gone underground", "cowering": "That's what rats do." Today Larijani, Pezeshkian and Araghchi were on the streets of Tehran for the Quds Day rally.

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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@rmslim He doesn’t manage his own Twitter handle?
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Randa Slim
Randa Slim@rmslim·
Based on the way message from @MKhamenei_ir was delivered, 2 valid hypotheses to be tested over time: 1. He is injured 2. He did not write it - other power centers are now making the decision #Iran
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Ayal Frank
Ayal Frank@AFIntl3·
@lrozen You’ll get him when you see him. Then judge him.
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@brianschatz @AlirezaNader @KamaranMPalani @RZimmt @wrodgers2 @glcarlstrom @IgnatiusPost @NicoleGrajewski