Sports Explored

@SportsBoyTony I might be off, but most of the shots I see Mobley take inside 15 ft are jump hooks. Feels like his shot profile is still pretty limited—maybe expectations are just really high for him right now?

Mobley was shooting 60% post ASB, but I can’t imagine the Cavs org thought he would be this much of a question mark heading into his fifth year playoff run Harden has made a concerted effort to make life easier on Evan since the trade because he knew they’d need him. But he’s not someone to play thru at this stage. That’s troubling

@TonyGrossi Feels like the key takeaway is the contract change created a real path to a trade. Whether they take it is a different question, but that wasn’t the case a few weeks ago.

Unlocked: A trade of Myles Garrett is the Browns' only ticket out of no-man's land. via TLOD thelandondemand.com/news/2026/mar/…

@JackDuffin @JackMcCurry08 That’s a pretty big shift—from <1% to 50/50. Feels like this moved from “not happening” to “very real possibility” quickly.

You can go back to last year, I said multiple times there was less than a 1% chance Myles Garrett gets traded in 2025 I would say it’s at least 50/50 now this offseason Garrett gets traded

@JackDuffin @JackMcCurry08 Interesting how the conversation has shifted—feels like this is less hypothetical than it was a few weeks ago.

Cleveland #Browns Open The Door To Trading Myles Garrett 247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-…

@JackDuffin This is interesting—does the contract change make a trade more viable, or just change when it could realistically happen?

Yesterday I wrote an article titled “Last Day For The Cleveland Browns To Trade Myles Garrett In 2026” 247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-… Well that date just moved to 7 days before the regular season 👀

@TonyGrossi Tony, would appreciate your insight on proper trade value here. David Bailey and Rubin Bain look like top edge prospects in this draft. Feels like adding an extra 1st this year and future picks could really help in a rebuild.

Hmmm. Complicated contract. But timing makes you wonder if this makes him more tradeable after what the Raiders could have gotten for Maxx Crosby?

@TylerKepner This is a great explanation of why batting averages are down. What it doesn’t answer is whether hitters are optimizing their approach in response. If contact is harder, situational hitting might actually be more valuable than we think.

Whatever happened to the .300 average? Only one NL hitter did it last season. No lefty in either league did it. Here's why the benchmark of batting is going extinct -- unlocked and free for all nytimes.com/athletic/71433…

@NFL_DougFarrar We discussed QB anticipation yesterday. ARod often talked about “trust” with his receivers. Knowing they would run the right routes, making adjustments at the line of scrimmage, etc. allowed him to anticipate where receivers would be.

It’s too bad that recent oddities have obscured the fact that at his peak, Rodgers had the most arm talent… ever.

Thinking about this more— The key point is BA doesn’t capture total offensive value (no walks, limited view of power). That’s why metrics like wRC+ are used—it measures overall run contribution. Raleigh vs Judge is really a value discussion (position + total production), not a batting average one

BA isn’t the key metric plus Cal Raleigh is a C at arguably the most important defensive position. Judge played the OF. Judge had an incredible year at the plate and he won. Raleigh’s is a switch hitter and his numbers were great from both sides of the plate wRC+ 186 vs LHP wRC+ 150 vs RHP Link to an article I wrote about wRC+ open.substack.com/pub/baseballex…

In 2000, 30 players hit .300 or better. Last season, fewer than 10 did. Is hitting a lost art, or did pitching just win the arms race? Genuinely asking.

That’s a good question—and I don’t think it’s something you can dismiss out of hand. One way to evaluate it is total run production. If modern hitting approaches (launch angle, damage, etc.) were clearly superior, you might expect higher scoring. But total runs were actually higher in 2000 (~25K) than in 2025 (~21.6K). So it doesn’t look like offense has increased. That suggests not a “lost art,” but a tougher run environment—likely driven by pitching—and hitters adapting within it

This poster is so negative on players & prospects. Such a “Debby Downer” compared to this from a very knowledgeable NFL observer “Start with what the player can do, not what he can’t do. I heard John Schneider say that at a press conference years ago, and it changed my evaluation process completely. Everybody can poke holes and pick nits. What can be developed in the right system?” x.com/nfl_dougfarrar…

So many great prospects. Browns have an opportunity to pick one of the best. It is going to be difficult to pass on a Reese, Styles, Bain, Bailey, Downs, Mauigoa (sp?), Fano, Theinaman, Tate, Lemon, or Freeling. We know Mendoza is gone. 4 out the 11 I mentioned will probably be gone. 7 top prospects, impact player potential to choose from.

Anyone ready for the draft? We’re a month away and the smoke is already insane! #DawgPound

@KwanBaseTracker @Rob_Shenanigans I agree that he’ll start season as an everyday player. I went and looked at previous seasons in what he did vs LHP. In 2024 wRC+ 145 vs LHP. IIRC 23 not so good, 22 good vs LHP. We’ll see.

@BaseballExpl @Rob_Shenanigans Significantly doubt they platoon him. These team already has basically no other good outfielders, especially not any that are right handed. His hot streaks and especially his defense, on this roster, make him an every day player

The most non-reported story of Guardians spring training is Steven Kwan's cold bat. He's hitting just .214 with 2 HR and 5 RBI, .500 SLG and .877 OPS

@IsaacBJG21 @Clevta Almost like he’s “cherry picking” data.

@BaseballExpl @Clevta Also need to be a bit more comprehensive. For instance age. Yeah Simpson is 23+ but hes a 4th year Junior not a 6th year Senior

This Ty Simpson stuff is just hilarious to me. People are really desperate. The guy is old with limited starts and has terrible measurables (height, weight, hand size). Here is how he stacks up vs all other QBs drafted over 20 years. I cant find any other QB drafted in rd1 with that poor of measurables at this age. Taking him in the top half of rd1 is pretty laughable imo but the NFL is the NFL

@NFL_DougFarrar @AthlonSports When Flacco played for the Browns in 2023 I could see the “chemistry” between him and Amari Cooper. IMO the anticipation showed up between those two players. Thanks for the response

Thanks! As far as anticipation, I think it can be taught to a point, but it's really innate. You either see things coming open, or you don't. If you don't, and you're more of a "see it and throw it" guy, you can still succeed, but as I said in the video, you're cutting off a lot of opportunities. Example: Brock Purdy is one of the NFL's best anticipation throwers. He wasn't able to show it a lot in his college offense, so it was an underrated skill. When he got with Kyle Shanahan and Brian Griese, they saw it, developed it, and there you go. In Mendoza's case, he is an anticipation thrower, and you can see that develop throughout his college career. x.com/NFL_DougFarrar…

New All-22 article/video on @AthlonSports: In the 2026 draft, there's Fernando Mendoza at QB, and there's everybody else. Ty Simpson would love to bridge that gap, but what does the tape say about Simpson's NFL transition? athlonsports.com/nfl/ty-simpson…

@IsaacBJG21 @Clevta Right That’s kind of the issue. If the argument is “he’s bad because this profile is rare”… He still needs to show that profile actually fails more often. Otherwise it’s just describing, not predicting.

@Clevta So he's bad because you cant find a matching data set?

@FB_FilmAnalysis I agree with the intuition — smaller margin for error makes sense. But “6 out of all QBs” isn’t the right denominator. The real question is: how often do smaller QBs succeed vs prototypical ones? That’s what would actually support the claim.

@BaseballExpl It’s 6 out of every QB that had played in the last 20 seasons and the takeaway was that they have a smaller margin for error, not that they couldn’t succeed.

The missing piece is simple: Out of how many? If 6 smaller QBs succeeded… Was that 6 out of 10? Or 6 out of 200? That answer changes everything.