NotaForecaster

@brelgino @Vvtentt101 It sounds all very smart, and deep. But is just content. Not a real 'edge' 🥲

@Vvtentt101 this is fascinating. you're betting against both the market consensus and professional forecasters. the 18 point spread between your target price and current odds is massive for weather prediction. what's your edge here beyond the historical data?

The market is pricing 14°C in Seoul at just 12¢. AccuWeather says that's exactly where it lands tomorrow Someone is wrong Trade Volume: $103,000 Current odds: > 13°C - 34% > 12°C - 27% > 11°C - 17% > 14°C - 12% Historical April highs in Seoul sit at 13-14°C. The market reflects this but stops short. 14°C should be trading at 30%+ if external forecasts were priced in. They aren't My move: Long 14°C Yes (12¢). Asymmetric upside, model backed This trade idea has an extremely high level of risk, so don't copy my moves

Karoline Leavitt is yet to begin her Press Briefing and Iran is already bonded at 99 cents What do they know?

I saw a very suspicious looking french 🥖 dude today around the airport at Paris. 🤔🧐🤨

@Mask4che 1hour would be hectic! But so much fun 🥳

Been feeling really nostalgic lately about last summer. It used to be just the same 20-30 players fighting over the only two markets. • London in F with "double brackets" • Spam refreshing the NWS page for 5min ASOS data • Zero tools, sweating over any bet bigger than 30$ The game has changed so much. So many elite traders now and new ones arriving daily. Excited for the future. Bring on the 1 hour temperature markets! 🚀 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade

This movie is for us

@bosaurum @Mask4che @Polymarket Amsterdam! (EHAM)

@Mask4che @Polymarket I love doing it, and we're adding more weather offerings actively at the present. If you have any further ideas, you know where to hit me up.

A $20,000 piece of advice (1/6) In February, @protrade47 challenged my 28% win rate. It stung my ego at first, but after the reality check, he gave me one of the most valuable tips I’ve ever received. Here is how that shift changed my PnL:

Today in Tokyo - during a 30 minute span of time when forecasts were predicting the temp to go down, it actually rocketed +3C up. Some say it was Hans with the hairdryer. Some say it was the Canadian Godzilla. Nobody knows for sure.

@PiratesPredict @atteonthephone @Hans323 Yeah. Steady wind from the water (ESE) all day. And then suddenly, stronger from the North 📈

@atteonthephone @Hans323 has been contacted for comment however his “out of office” reply says he’s in Japan at the moment….. suspicious 🤨

@Roomservice_inc @Polymarket blêh 😒

Be careful with the new @polymarket weather markets The links on top don't match the actual date Always double check the 'rules' to be sure

@HiveLiveHQ If you unironically trade Andrew Tate # number of posts and expect to not get insider traded by him or his friends you deserve to lose your money.

@catboyautist Part of the name should revolve NO.

People ask why I don't trade mentions on Poly, its pretty simple; the people responsible for making the strikes there are focused on extracting as much money from noobs and don't care about the longevity of the category

🤞 may it stay very 'cold' in London today🥶

@mahera777 @CarOnPolymarket What do you mean 'gold'. I mean... Two aircraft carriers a whole fleet, an dozens of aircraft... And a president who needs to distract from the Epstein Files and bad poll numbers

@CarOnPolymarket he is crazy, thought everything was so simple I wrote yesterday that a blow was possible over the weekend because gold was rising this indicator still worked

UPDATE: he lost the $7M.

@radarmentions SOTU

I'm sharing this tool for free on MentionsTerminal.com - just sign up, drop me a follow + comment SOTU on this thread. I'll add everyone who signs up to get access this tool by 12pm ET on 2/23. I'll be releasing the additional SOTU tools and our subscription offering tomorrow, so be sure to follow if you're interested in playing more Mentions markets.

State of The Union will print $100k winners! I pulled the comp data for three markets so you don't have to. We're expecting this to be one of the biggest mentions markets in terms of volume for the year... so big that there's actually three markets! 1) What will Trump say 2) Who will Trump mention 3) What places will Trump mention I pulled the historical data for each of these into my tools for you to check out below...

@Harnisc08225444 @Polymarket The problem is: you never really know when it's 'too early' or 'too late'.

Today i broke my own rules in the Weather market @Polymarket. - dont bond too early - dont bond too much - dont be a greedy fuka I thought the City of Love Paris would be over and i bonded. Then suddenly the Temperature increased again. I almost Shit my pants.

Another smart(no) post you'll bookmark and never read 3,000 words explaining @Polymarket to people who trade on Polymarket. The biggest problem with Twitter articles - First - The dataset 400 million trades. 36GB Useful for sociologists, statisticians, historians. Not for regular trader Most Polymarket event is unique by design. You can't find patterns in unique events. This is more like newspaper archive. - Method 1 is Kelly Criterion - "How much should I bet?" The answer is: less when you're unsure, more when you're confident Your gut already knew this His actual argument: Kelly is unreliable because p - your win probability - is a subjective estimate. You think it's 60% but you don't really know His solution: add CV_edge - a coefficient that measures your uncertainty in that estimate Calculated from historical trades on similar markets in similar situations He fixed a subjective input with another subjective input because who choose what the similar situation is? And on Polymarket this is even worse than it sounds A regular trader doesn't trade similar markets repeatedly - he trades whatever he understands Politics, sports, macro events, whatever. Looking for statistical patterns across those is not just useless. It actively makes your model worse because you're finding patterns in noise and calling it edge Also the Monte Carlo part only works when you have thousands of identical repeating events to resample from. On continuously traded markets with repeating patterns like 5min BTC - maybe. But even there it's not guaranteed because markets adapt, patterns disappear, and past stops predicting future exactly when you need it most. - Method 2 is calibration analysis - Markets far from resolution are inaccurate. Markets close to resolution are more accurate You call this "common sense." People have been trading on this for as long as markets have existed It happens because most people don't want to lock up liquidity for months they want fast money Order books are thin, spreads are wide, and the percentage means almost nothing - Method 3 is limit orders vs market orders - Limit orders beat market orders. Especially when the order book is thin and a market order will get filled at a terrible price 72.1 million trades to confirm something every trader learns on their first bad fill ---------------------------------------------------- That's the big problem on X esp. in ct part of it People want to produce smart content so they overcomplicate things that could be explained in two sentences And this works - because people bookmark it, and then never read it. ---------------------------------------------------- If you want to trade on Polymarket Find your own way The basic principles are already in your head You went to school

No crying in the casino 🎰

@atteonthephone @GollumGekko1 This was me today in Paris. 🥐

@GollumGekko1 This infographic should clarify the situation.

Today in New York - After seeing the temp go flat for many hours against all forecast models, I realized the day is not following any forecasts. I noticed the low temp brackets were still priced very low (as if day was going according to forecasts) so I tried to buy them. - First I tried to get fills in the 1c - 2c range. Didn't get fills. - Took some orders at 10c. Price corrected a bit, to 20c, almost immediately after. - Then I tried to get fills around 20c. Didn't get fills. - Took some orders near 30c. Price corrected to 40c almost immediately after. - Tried to get fills around 40c. Didn't get fills. - Took 2k shares at 60c. - Less than one hour later, the price had not only corrected, but overcorrected, to 98%. - And then, against everyone's expectations, *CHATGPT INSERT METEO MUMBLE JUMBLE HERE AND THIS TIME MAKE IT BELIEVEABLE*, and now the price is at zero.

Polymarket bets be like

@journoverax @linie_oo @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket US is still building up forces. Strike will come I think. But not today.

@linie_oo @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket if this bet hits I'll be shocked

Someone loaded 2,900,000 shares on the market with 3% probability He started buying the "US strikes Iran by February 9" market at 2 cents and doesn't seem to be stopping He's still accumulating and placing limit buy orders Is he a fool - or does he know something?