Bean Counter

@Ausar_theV1LE @bubbleboi Whats that got to do with their stock price tho. Their business will run the same regardless if its trading $5 or $5000

@bubbleboi It’s based in the USA and has a strategic interest for our national security given AI’s increasingly sophisticated capabilities.

How is micron a long while the following is true: 1) They make the worse HBM 2) HBM can’t get past 16-high stacks, limiting their market size 3) Nvidia & SK announced a multi-year partnership to “co-develop” memory together. The answer is Micron is actually making more money off of DDR.

@leevalueroach Stock market has gone up multiples more than the federal deficit and stocks are not the only asset too

I do not understand, in 2026, why anyone is shorting anything, and I have, over the last several years, watched a generation of intelligent, well-credentialed, technically sophisticated investors set fire to their capital on the short side of a market that has been telegraphing its direction with the subtlety of a marching band, and the only explanation I have ever been able to construct is that none of these people have read a single page of monetary history written before 1990. The setup is not subtle. The federal government is running a 7% structural deficit with no political coalition in either party willing to address it. The Treasury is issuing debt at a pace that will push publicly held debt-to-GDP past 130% within five years, which is the level at which, historically, every government in recorded history has either inflated its way out, defaulted, or both. The Fed is, regardless of what it says in public, the marginal buyer of that debt, and the only mechanism it has to fund the purchases is the creation of new dollars. The money is being printed. The debt is being monetized. The currency is being debased. And asset prices, which are denominated in the currency being debased, are doing the only thing they have ever done in any country that has ever tried this, which is going up. Every country that has run this experiment has produced the same chart. Weimar Germany in 1922 and 1923 produced one of the most violent equity bull markets in recorded history in nominal terms, as the mark collapsed and the Berlin exchange repriced upward by orders of magnitude. Argentina, across four separate inflationary cycles since 1975, produced in each cycle a nominal rally that outran every short thesis published, while the peso lost 99.9% of its purchasing power. Zimbabwe in 2007 and 2008 produced an equity market that rose so violently the exchange had to be closed because the calculations could not keep up. Turkey, right now, in front of the entire world, has produced a Borsa Istanbul up 1,400% in lira terms while the lira has lost 85% against the dollar, and every short of Turkish equities has been carried out in nominal terms even when they were right in real terms. The lesson is not that asset prices are going up because the businesses are getting better. The lesson is that asset prices are going up because the unit they are measured in is getting smaller, and any investor who positions short against this dynamic is betting against the will and capacity of a government to debase its own currency, which is the single most reliable bet you can lose in 4,000 years of recorded monetary history. The government always wins. The government always debases. The currency always loses purchasing power. The assets always reprice upward in nominal terms, on a path the shorts always insist is unsustainable and that always, somehow, sustains. You can short individual frauds. You cannot short the market. You cannot short the currency itself without being on the wrong side of the largest force in modern capital markets, which is the slow, politically inevitable destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power against everything that cannot be printed. The shorts have been wrong for five years. They will be wrong for the next five. The only investors who will, in real terms, preserve and grow their wealth are the ones who understood, early, that the game is not about being right on valuation, it is about being on the right side of monetary debasement, and the right side has always been owning real assets, productive businesses, scarce commodities, and the one monetary metal that has functioned as money continuously for 5,000 years, while the people on the other side continue to insist this time is different. This time has never been different. The math is the math. The shorts will continue to lose. The owners will continue to win.

@TradexWhisperer I agree, there's no denying the demand. But most of their net profit expansion has been driven by price increases rather than actual quantity increase, and so imo the bigger question is the sustainability of their pricing power and not so much actual demand?

@Scomfish Just stick to the fundamentals. Demand vs Supply. Demand is high because they need more Cognitive Capacity. Full stop.

$MU $DRAM Unbelievable $707,000,000,000. That is the projected 2027 operating profit of 3 memory companies. Apple + Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Tesla combined? ~$661 Billion. The Memory Trio beats the Magnificent 6. Not revenue. Operating profit.

@TradexWhisperer Right, but the reason the memory stocks are trading at a low p/e is because its a question of sustainability. Can the hyperscalers pay these prices for ten years in a row? The fact that memory profits will be higher than the mag 7 is not actually a good thing at all

@Scomfish Which drives the DRAM and prices higher globally.

@TradexWhisperer ? Essentially entire memory demand explosion has been from AI buildout, not consumer products...

@Scomfish From what device are you typing from? Does it have memory? How about your PC work?

@thatsabadknight @jszhang0912 Aren't capex estimates just going higher because of price increases lol

@jszhang0912 capex estimates are going higher from hyperscalers compared to guides from recent earnings call. did you also include coreweave/nbis/iren (large neoclouds) + sovereign (small atm but higher in future) + china? would be interested!

Did some napkin math. The current mkt cap of $MU, $STX, $WDC, $SNDK, etc, implies a 12x multiple even with 60% net margin and 1.5 trillion USD AI capex (current run-rate is less than 1 trillion USD. Is there major logical flaws in this analysis? Can't see this go on forever?...

@athuinvests Sk hynix is cheaper

I’m telling my family members and friends to buy $MU. It’s the cheapest way to 2x in a year. Risks are super low. $3T valuation by 2028 isn’t that hard. Capacity has already been locked in. Other similar plays: $SNDK (NAND), $DRAM (ETF)

@JeffBro52400644 Dont think you should be valuing mu based on p/e. When mu had negative earnings, would p/e been the correct way to value it?

I THINK $MU could trade sidewise until earnings, June 24th. $1000 is a huge psychological barrier and the stock has run 10x in less than 18 mo. I believe its massively undervalued with a fwd PE of 10-11. Earnings are going to be EPIC. I plan on adding to the $DRAM ON dips for many reasons the main one being SK Hyinx is going to likely be listing on the NASDQ probably by August. This will be a tailwind for the stock and therefore that ETF. Current price is $65.50 *NOT financial advice, just my opinion (I am long both, in $MU since $98)

@RealNickMugalli Well all it comes down to is the market doesnt like negative cash flow

@Scomfish It’s in the article

$ORCL added $85B of backlog in one quarter. More than it'll book in revenue all year. But the customers are prepaying for the GPUs $75B of the buildout is funded by the buyers themselves. The backlog makes it an ai infrastructure company. $500 PT coming open.substack.com/pub/nicholasmu…

@RJCcapital Its bullish for AI, but bearish for AI investments

someone please tell me if I’m retarded but the Anthropic news is the most bullish thing that has ever happened

@bubbleboi Most jobs and work i would say is unnecessary anyways regardless of AI

@TradexWhisperer Why is morgan stanley so bearish? $1750 is low!

$SNDK Retrieval-Augmented Generation Bottleneck Susquehanna: $3,250. (Street-high) Cantor Fitz: $1,800 → $2,900. Today. BofA: $1,550 → $2,100. Today. The entire intelligence of Earth will be stored in NAND. $MU

@zephyr_z9 The memory companies market caps are moving multiples higher every day than these prepayments lol

DAMN

@fivepointscap @unimatrix325 Isn't it a possibility though that AI results in massive deflation? Which can actually be bearish for equities

@unimatrix325 @Scomfish True, but assuming AI can replicate human productivity, it’s a given, no?

The S&P 500 is literally designed to go up forever. I remember when it hit 5000 a couple years ago and thought “man this is getting frothy”. Now it’s at 7500. In a couple years it’ll be at 10,000. In 10 years it’ll be at 20,000. In 20 years it’ll be at 50,000. Yes it might go 10k-6k-15k-10k-20k-13k… but it goes up over time. Just trust the process. Don’t try to time the market, because whether you buy at 7500 or 7000 or 6000 won’t matter all that much when it’s at 50,000 in 20 years…

@bboczeng this is nothing new

我突然发现我悟了，我终于发现Serenity真正赚钱的方式了 锁定欧洲等小众市场的小市值股票，提前买入后，发布“免费”的行业研究报告，再让自己的follower和retail一哄而上去购买股票，move stock price 这可比订阅费赚多了 这绝对是全新的KOL赚钱方式 那些做股票分析的因为粉丝数不够多，影响不了市场，只能收订阅费 现在你知道为什么他subscription fee只有一美金了嘛？你现在了解为什么她需要每天给你“数”自己的订阅者有多少人了嘛？ 最典型的例子： X-FAB，因为昨天Serenity的一篇帖子，当日大涨70% 简直比抖音榜一带货还牛逼 而且这还能巧妙避开“操纵市场”的嫌疑，因为毕竟发布的都是“个人研究”，其他人去买那完全是因为他们相信我， 或者他们自己蠢，不知道这些基本的供应链常识罢了 anyway，这一招确实是行之有效的，小市值公司很容易大涨，而且又有一定的行研事实支撑，这可比去买方做研究员赚钱多了 Serenity彻底成功了，但你要说他是一个女性，而且是单独作战，我是绝对不信的 至少是个3人以上的专业“带单”团队了 通过被动让你们帮他move the market的方法赚钱 这一点，绝对是推特上最大的牛逼， 一定值得载入史册的 谢谢大家 😅😅😅

@ChaiSalamBro @EhrmantrautCap_ Well theyre funding it with debt now as well

@Scomfish @EhrmantrautCap_ they will by cutting dividends and buybacks, there is reason they are taking stakes in openai and anthropic, because hyperscalers think they gonna go extinct

If you are wondering why Micron $MU is up over 17% today: UBS revised their price target on $MU to $1,625. UBS notes that LTAs with price floors secure longer-term memory demand. UBS now expects EPS of $157, $167 and $117 for calendar years 2027, 2028 and 2029, and also expects $MU to generate a FCF of over $400 billion in this period. Even with lower memory prices after 2028, UBS expects memory revenue and earnings to remain high as AI demand will not go anywhere and higher sales volume will compensate for the lower average selling prices after 2028. UBS is acknowledging the structural change in the memory industry. AI demand is not going anywhere.

@EhrmantrautCap_ @ChaiSalamBro So the memory companies are going to be earning, what like $1 trillion in operating profits a year eventually? How would hyperscalers afford that

@ChaiSalamBro $MU is still valued at less than 9x FY2027 earnings amidst the structural change in the memory industry.