@TheANRP @jdcmedlock โErm, actually, evil only exists because of good, therefore good is evil. I am very smart.โ
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Person Being ๐ณ๏ธโ๐๐บ๐ฆ๐ต๐ธ
3.3K posts
Person Being ๐ณ๏ธโ๐๐บ๐ฆ๐ต๐ธ
@doomscrollering
hi
he/him Joined Aฤustos 2020
645 Following126 Followers
@jdcmedlock Virtue signaling quite literally incentivizes vice signaling
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@impostersyndrum @JeremiahDJohns The Earth is not overpopulated, save everyone.
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@JeremiahDJohns What I donโt understand is the contradiction between constantly proclaiming earth is doomed from overpopulation and simultaneously refusing to choose the optimal button so that *everybody* stays alive
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The red and blue button folks are talking past each other. Obviously the game-theoretic solution for your own personal safety is red.
But some of us have this thing where we care about other people and having a societal Schelling point of blue saves billions of lives, so,
Romy@Romy_Holland
@_Void_Apostle_ @Aella_Girl the hypothetical involves babies smashing buttons. it involves old ladies with dementia. it involves the 250 million illiterate adults in india.
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@CameronCorduroy @DerekPederson3 Reasonable people would make that assumption?
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This is very bad.
Clearly the question is implicitly talking about *within a liberal democracy* as itโs not controversial that citizen violence is sometimes justified in resisting an authoritarian regime.
OSZ@OpenSourceZone
Is ever justified for citizens to resort to violence in order to achieve political goals? Among Very Liberal: ๐ข 25% Among Liberals: ๐ข 17% Among Moderates: ๐ข 9% Among Conservatives: ๐ข 6% Among Very Conservative: ๐ข 3% (YouGov Poll)
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@WhickTv @Nathaniel144978 winning the powerball also has a small, non-zero chance, and the money would ensure your loved ones live like royalty. that doesnโt create an obligation to buy tickets
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I'm a blue button pusher.
Reasons in no necessary order:
1) Many people I love and care for will press blue. Me pressing blue has a chance of saving them, me pressing red does not
2) I would feel bad if I contributed, in however small a way, to the direct death of a non-zero number of people
3) I believe most people will, when it comes down to it, push blue. Pushing blue has the greatest chance of *everyone* surviving.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@BadEggGames @morallawwithin Uhh no if pick both boxes and the predictor was correct you only get $1000
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@morallawwithin In newcomb, the future can influence the past, due to the nature of a (near) perfect predictor because accurate prediction of the future is the same as time travel.
It's a Time travel paradox masquerading as a thought experiment.
Whatever you pick you're right
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Hi guys can we have a three-day discourse about Newcombโs problem. Itโs so much cooler! And I know some really cool variants.
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@Miksus6 @rtalbot @uncatherio Not analogous because the negative consequence was replaced with a positive one based on an already established social expectation which drastically changes the average answer which is what decides the correct answer.
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@doomscrollering @rtalbot @uncatherio Dude... you have a choice between returning the shopping cart back or waiting to see if 50% of people return the shopping cart and if they don't return it, you won't return it either.
And you choose the second option... everyone should just return the shopping cart
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I keep finding it surprising that people do not understand that choosing red has a side effect: it increases the number of people that must choose blue.
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@rtalbot @uncatherio You also dont โneedโ to put your shopping cart back.
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@uncatherio It does not. Nobody needs to push blue under any circumstance.
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@neocartesian Not my whole self, but maybe 55% of myself
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@doomscrollering valid, but would it be so bad to kill yourself over it?
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which button should absolutely impartial utilitarians press in the red-blue game?
i ran the numbers: the answer may surprise you.
a thread:
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@PositivistWitch The EV is rather close, and thatโs without considering the second-order effects of a blue-pusher extinction. So Iโm going blue.
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you are not going to coordinate 4 billion people into cooperating on a single shot strong nash equilibrium game no matter how hard you virtue signal
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@RealDianeYap Itโs not about โresponsibilityโ, just like the trolley problem isnโt about โresponsibilityโ
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@neocartesian I know this is incalculable, but, considering the second-order effects of the mass casualty event that is a red โvictoryโ, Iโm still sticking with blue.
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how should you vote, depending on the priors?
if you expect a close election, then you should vote blue. vote red if you're uncertain or expect a red win. it doesn't matter how you vote if you expect a blue win.
integrating over all possible parameters, red wins!
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@S_____C______ @TrueSlazac You should only apply game theory based on personal survival in dilemmas where the key metric is personal survival, no wonder youโre so confused.
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@S_____C______ @TrueSlazac Which is why game theory isnโt useful here.
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Red pressers fail to understand that changing the wording or making contrived allegories changes the optimal answer because it changes the average answer, and the scenario is entirely dependent on the average answer
Roko ๐@RokoMijic
We're doing the "Blender" game again There is a large blender. Everyone in the world has to decide whether to step into the blender. If at least 50% of the people do step into the blender, it will be unable to overcome their inertia to get started, and everyone survives. If less than 50% of the people step into the blender, then they all get blended up into paste and die. People who do not step into the blender suffer no adverse effects. Would you step into the blender? (Blue=step into the blender, Red= don't do that)
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@S_____C______ @TrueSlazac If personal survival were the key metric, red is the obvious choice, but itโs not the key metric, and he never said it was, you seem to have hallucinated that.
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Thank you
So if the odds of you surviving by picking blue increase to >50% you should, in your opinion, press blue
You have outlined that personal survival is the key metric here. Those are your own words.
The red button has a 100% survival rate though. By YOUR OWN STATED LOGIC, i.e. that likelihood of personal survival is THE principal consideration in your choice, red is ALWAYS the superior and rational choice, even if you are borderline certain that blue will win.
That is the whole crux of the game and you failed to understand it, instead trying to mask your irrational signalling with moral reasoning that you yourself admit are categorically second in your considerations
Thank you for playing ๐
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@S_____C______ @TrueSlazac Sure, so letโs rephrase: โAnybody who picks the blue button dies unless 50% of people join them.โThe utility maximizing answer entirely depends on what % of people you expect to misunderstand, then the % to try and save those people, then the % to try and save THOSE people, etc..
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The game is designed so that in reality there is no red button. The red button is totally meaningless. It does nothing. It serves no purpose. The only choice you have relates to the blue button
The question is actually: 'do you choose to press the blue button and enter into a bizarre and unnecessary suicide pact in the hope that >50% of humans on earth do the same irrational thing...or do you not?'
Watching people fall for the phrasing or contrive non existent moral imperatives from this would be surprising if I didn't know most people are deranged and denatured
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@KnowingBetterYT @Can_of_Memes If you go to a church in Italy and are asked to treat the cross at the altar with reverence, does it matter if the cross was made last year or in 1200?
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There is a really interesting conversation to be bad here about that constitutes a "real" or "authentic" historic site or artifact and who gets to decide that.
It's very interesting how he (a white guy who grew up on the island) discounts post contact culture as "fake"
Knowing Better@KnowingBetterYT
Hate to break it to you, but pretty much everything tourist-facing in Hawaii is fake. All hula performances are either a coconut-bra tourist abomination or an 1880s Protestant reimagining of the traditional dance. Even the historic sites are fake...
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@tangotiger FIP is kinda like Newtonian Physics, it breaks at the extremes but is still accurate and useful 95% of the time.
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FIP breaks down when you have 1.6 strikeouts per IP, with 0 walks and 0 HR
If you insist on setting a floor of 0, by all means, go ahead
I prefer fun, and Mason Miller breaking FIP is more fun
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@evemilksme @rob_grey @kak0phony @loserbent If one person presses blue, then the red button does something. So, both buttons do something in all plausible scenarios.
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@doomscrollering @rob_grey @kak0phony @loserbent No it's literally nothing happens.
The only button that does something is the blue one.
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pressing blue bc either everyone survives or it's not my problem anymore
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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