
Integritas
3.6K posts




Flawed Lockdown Modelling - Professor Nick Hart and The Lancet Wuhan Paper Early in 2020 - Imperial College London team led by Neil Ferguson - were asked by the UK Government to model the transmission and impact of the Coronavirus across the UK. The original modelling supported a herd immunity approach. Then a paper began to circulate from Wuhan published in The Lancet indicating a Hospital Admission : ICU admission ratio close to 30% - thelancet.com/action/showPdf… - Far higher than the original estimates based on viral pneumonia Professor Nick Hart - Director of Respiratory Service at Guy's and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust - was dealing with the first serious cases as Covid spread in London. Professor Hart was in contact with Neil Ferguson's Imperial College London team to express his concern at the high levels, as reported on page 5 in the infamous Imperial College London report 9 - "We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). " And concluding in the same report that it was double the previous estimate - "In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity." imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… From responses received from Guy's and St Thomas' Trust, it appears that they weren't keeping records comprehensive records at the time of which patients had covid. This raises the question on whether the modelling based entirely on anecdotal evidence from Professor Hart, or was he influenced by The Lancet paper from Wuhan? x.com/nickhartgstt/s… - references The Lancet report and Hospitalisation : ICU outcome in the bottom left corner with a reference to the paper. Professor Nick Hart talks openly about how he was influenced by China/Italy in a British Library interview sami.bl.uk/uhtbin/cgisirs… The Lancet Wuhan paper was not directly referenced in the Imperial College London report The change was reported in the Financial Times, March 16th 2020. "The latest evidence suggests that 30% of patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 will need critical care in an intensive care unit, he said. Previous estimates, based on experience with viral pneumonia, were too low." ft.com/content/249daf… The revised modelling led to the 2 day whiteboard planning session in Downing Street to sketch out "flattening the curve" response that led to the lockdowns x.com/dominic2306/st… The ICL modelling found its way to the White House where Dr. Deborah Birx and President Trump were in the midst of their response planning. ft.com/content/1fed75… " Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain. Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.” web.archive.org/web/2020031900…> According to UKs ICNARC , the ICU : hospital admissions was never anywhere near 30%. The absolute measured peak did not even reach 15%. icnarc.org/our-audit/audi… The modelling used to justify lockdowns was out *by a factor of 3*.












This is the biggest reform to our Parliament in a generation. 🇬🇧 This morning, the 700-year-old system of hereditary membership in the House of Lords was abolished. Membership is now earned through public service and merit, not granted by an inheritance. ✅


















