PolyBackTest

Backtesting your trading strategies for free is now possible with the polybacktest.com API. - sub second snapshots - entire orderbook depth and liquidity - btc spot price - and much more Over a month of BTC Up/Down markets already recorded No costs. Try it at polybacktest.com

We tested whether ETH and SOL prediction markets are less efficient than BTC on Polymarket. They are. And one side is exploitable. Results: 5m and 15m timeframes, 3,000 markets, 10 million snapshots analyzed. Core thesis: Buy the side that's already winning. Set symmetric TP/SL. Let time decay and momentum do the work. Core strategy: When one side hits 85¢, buy it. TP at 95¢. SL at 75¢. BTC: 54.5% win rate, +1.0¢ per dollar, 752 trades. ETH: 60.6% win rate, +2.5¢ per dollar, 752 trades. SOL: 63.3% win rate, +2.9¢ per dollar, 776 trades. Inverse (buying dips, hoping for reversals): When one side drops to 10¢, buy it. TP at 20¢. BTC: 39.4% win rate, –21¢ per dollar. ETH: 35.5% win rate, –29¢ per dollar. SOL: 37.4% win rate, –25¢ per dollar. Only buying the winning side is profitable. We then tested more profitable configurations: ETH: 85¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –5¢ → +3.4¢/dollar (752 trades) SOL: 85¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –5¢ → +3.3¢/dollar (776 trades) SOL: 75¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –10¢ → +2.9¢/dollar (810 trades) Next, to increase profitability, I want to test letting positions run past the TP then setting a sell limit at the TP level. E.g., buy at 85¢, hold past 95¢, take profit if price falls back to 95¢, otherwise hold to resolution. Why favorite buying works: ETH and SOL markets have fewer participants. The favorite at 85¢+ is underpriced and continues to 95¢ more often than implied. The SL caps downside at 1:1 or better, while the market delivers >54% hit rate. Dumb money isn't buying the wrong side, it's selling the right side too early. If you want to backtest your own strategies, polybacktest has sub second historical market data going back a month.

@V7musyo @Polymarket @PolymarketSport What’s the window to buy to after the event has ended

On @Polymarket you can find NO RISK predictions on the NBA. (There are plenty of opportunities here, you don’t have to stick to the NBA) Here is what I did yesterday during the games: 1⃣I opened ESPN and waited for the game to end (the score updates almost instantly there, there might be faster sources, but I haven't found them yet). 2⃣When it became clear on ESPN that the total would exceed 233.5, but the market on Polymarket hadn’t closed yet, I bought the position at ~0.98 and sold it about 10 seconds later. Profit: $6.37 3⃣I used the same strategy on the Cavaliers vs. Bucks game and made $2.74 I liked it and went for the next market, but missed the entry - happens sometimes. Balance: $368.58 Total profit: $9.11

@BenCrypt_ Yes

@polybacktest Is this real?👀

We're hiring a casual social media manager! The role: - Create 14 posts per week in a similar style to our current posts - Weekly KPI: 150k impressions (bonuses if you exceed KPIs) - Pay: $30–50 per post, depending on experience - Support and guidance provided - Weekly payments via crypto or PayPal - You'll receive PolyBacktest and AntiGravity subscriptions plus any other tools needed To apply, send us a message explaining why we should choose you and any relevant experience you have.

I'll check all requests in 24 hours, we'll respond to those we think are good applicants.

@cifangyiquan It’s on our website for anyone :)

@polybacktest Good job! I'm just wanting your data.

We backtested an Opening Range Breakout strategy adapted for Polymarket's BTC 5-minute markets. Across 4,389 trades, here's what we found. The strategy: When BTC moves past the price targets and the price is below the accuracy %, buy. - BTC moves $10 in first minute: 57% accuracy that side wins - BTC moves $10–25: 68% accuracy - BTC moves $50–100: 76% accuracy - BTC moves $100+: 99% accuracy The first 60 seconds of BTC price action predicts the 5-minute resolution quite accurately. If BTC moves up from the strike in the first minute → buy UP If BTC moves down → buy DOWN Hold to resolution. That's it. No indicators. No ML. Just momentum. When the market shows its hand early, it usually plays through. If you want to backtest your own strategies, PolyBackTest has subsecond historical data going back a month.

@dextrabot Can’t wait to see how it goes

Challenge Day 4 Update: The tiny-bet automation bot is now +$105. $500 in 30 days → I release it. If I fail → it gets deleted. Everything is fully transparent. Profile Below

@itskkoma @Polymarket Well done 💪

Not a bad day on @Polymarket 😚

@signalpilotlabs Sol already up

@polybacktest Sol and Xrp yet?

@linkmaxxi @direkturcrypto i'll test it

@polybacktest @direkturcrypto Okay then Strategy 1) Bitcoin 15min candle closes with >200$ we bot on the opposite side next 4candles using martingale strategy

My Openclaw told me to bet on Elon tweets. 20% compounding every week. So I listened. 😌 Here's the strategy OpenClaw gave me: → Platform: Polymarket → Market: Elon tweet predictions → Entry: 8 hours before resolution → Position: Top 2 only → Frequency: Every 4 days Simple. Repeatable. Boring. That's exactly why it works. 🎯 20% a week sounds small. Until you compound it. Week 1: +20% Week 4: +107% Week 8: +330% Week 12: +791% My AI didn't give me a jackpot. It gave me a system. 📈 I didn't come up with this. OpenClaw did. I just executed. 😂 Not financial advice. Polymarket is a prediction market, not investment.

@linkmaxxi @direkturcrypto We only have data for up/down markets : (

@direkturcrypto @polybacktest can u verify this

@itskkoma @Polymarket Congrats on the big month 💪

Not a bad month on @Polymarket It's been a grind but we keep iterating. Went through some highs and lows but glad the outcome has ended up positive let's keep going

@PolyCop_Trader Congratulations, can’t wait to see what else you guys achieve

$1B volume generated in just 90 days. PolyCop Team never stops.

@mrvarmax If you’re having issue could you email our support, we’d love to identify any issues and resolve them

@polybacktest In free tier i didn't get any orderbook info for BTC 5min. Is it even working?

Just added SOL markets to Polybacktest -SOL 5min up/down -SOL 15min up/down -SOL 1hour up/down - SOL Binance spot -SOL Binance futures XRP market coming soon.

@TheFundedRoad The full data set is over a terabyte, it’s huge. We’re adding a speed update which should help very soon

@polybacktest could you add download button whihc would download the full dataset? kinda annoying to wait an hour for the API requests to download the full month

@dextrabot Best of luck

Testing whether NBA APIs can give a real edge on Polymarket. What if you had a system that trades autonomously, based on the rules you define? This might end with the bankroll at $0… But that is the cost of finding an edge..