Timthetiny

@GreyHairOpsGuy @SophiaCai99 @CroftHelima Hollub is a fucking moron.

@SophiaCai99 @CroftHelima Sophia, did anyone ask U.S. oil producers to increase production output? “If President Trump asked us to increase production, we absolutely would,” Hollub told Hart Energy.” hartenergy.com/upstream/shale…

Full readout of Trump admin’s mtg with oil executives: - Oil execs asked about chances of crude oil ban, Burgum said definitively ‘no’ - On permitting reform, admin said it’s a priority. Discussions happening with D’s and R’s now. Both sides more optimistic lately. WH going to keep pushing for changes, framing them as essential to building out energy infrastructure, particularly projects needed to support power generation. - Oil execs also expressed support for admin’s 60-day Jones Act waiver politico.com/news/2026/03/1…

@kenwday Shoreface? Lateral continuity?

The Shannon is a tight sandstone, likely of shallow sea, sandbar deposition. Characterized by sweet spots of higher permeability and oil migration. Productivity not as high as Turner or Parkman. If the operator can get costs low enough (data brough to you by AFE Leaks) breakeven pricing around ~$60/bbl. 481 mbo typecurve for the 9400' well. While countries are fighting over nukes and etc, this play hunts.

@JamieHeard5 Big mistake for the US to increase exports. Let the arbitrage draw industry back home

The Qatar strike immediately repriced 27/28 LNG prices. We saw some partial credit for that in LNG price exposed equities. It also immediately repriced the value of natural gas resource in nations with low geopolitical risk (Canada / US). We haven’t seen that valued at all in the equities yet. Do we have to wait to see resource change hands? Or will an onslaught of project FIDs do the trick.

@NewDawn7411 Lmao. Referring to a higher authority that you can't corroborate with. Ballsy.

9 year old daughter: “I’m not lying, just ask God.” That was a new one 🥰😂

@HarmlessYardDog $180 is almost universally over $6. Cali might break $10, as they are the most exposed to international prices

$5-$7 per gallon gasoline depending on your state.

@EnergyPeddler Everyone knows. Despite the jawboning. They will ban exports, lean on the western hemisphere abd suspend refinery regulations to keep this bitch level. Asia is screwed though.

Jesus are we really about to send WTI back into the 80s

@ItsDollhouseMJ @CoffeeSacred @FearedBuck You just did condone it. Fuck you

@CoffeeSacred @FearedBuck Absolutely not. Don’t condone it at all.

ABC has canceled The Bachelorette after their lead was seen in a leaked footage physically attacking her ex-boyfriend and throwing metal chairs at him while her child was present and reportedly the child was struck during the altercation.

@CRUDEOIL231 Asia is going to detonate. Europe can pull on the Atlantic basin and pay crippling prices for supply. Japan and Korea are going to turn off.

Sure a Strait of Hormuz blockade obviously pushes most energy costs up, but a collapse in Qatari LNG supply is going to send global LNG prices into orbit. That shift in switching economics will drag coal higher right along with it. I saw Chancellor Merz saying "this isn't Europe's war." Sure he's technically right, but Europe is going to be the one left holding the bag for all the damage. The ghosts of 2022 are starting to haunt the place again. You can see the list of victims about to get hit the hardest across the energy mix. Meanwhile this is going to force governments into a total re-evaluation of fundamental energy security, which could actually give clean energy a long-term tailwind in the process. #oott #iran

@rbl1973 @40AcresBuilt @SecScottBessent "Define quick" lmao

@40AcresBuilt @SecScottBessent I'm a geologist so my reference frame for time is a bit different 🤣

Now define “in time”….. @SecScottBessent 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

@SanctionsAml Lol. Its already $150 in the physical market. Try and keep up

Brent up 70% in the past month This prices Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic at half its capacity indefinitely With Saudis diverting lots of oil to the Red Sea and Iran continuing to export, we're already almost at that $150 or $200 can't happen.. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil… #OOTT

@SullyCNBC We're talking about asia turning off. Earnings are about to be immaterial to anything

Morning hot take: We could get the greatest earnings in the world from big tech and not sure it will matter for macro markets if energy costs keep going up. Yes or no?

@bowtiedcrake With what logistics capacity?

At what point would the energy crisis be severe enough that East and Southeast Asian countries send troops, whether national or PMCs?

@Labor2b @phoenix_de @katdro @GrueneBundestag Enjoy your deindustralization.

@phoenix_de @katdro @GrueneBundestag Die Aussagen der Klimaleugner 2001: Mehr als 3% EE geht nicht, sonst #Blackout. 2005: mehr als 10% EE geht nicht, 2011: Wenn wir die AKWs abschalten, dann Blackout. 2011, Sommer: Im Winter Blackout. 2017: mehr als 30% EE nicht möglich. #OOTT

Der Krieg im Nahen Osten zeige einmal mehr, dass das fossile Zeitalter vorbei sei, so Katharina Dröge @katdro @GrueneBundestag. Ein Wirtschaftsmodell, dass auf dem Verbrennen fossiler Energien aufbaue, funktioniere nicht mehr.

@QianjunBefanis @agnostoxxx The US is self sufficient in agricultural inputs. I was talking more about Africa, central Asia, and China.

I will be more worried about dollar value to be frank, as long as dollar is worth something, you can go to Chinatown to buy foods, here is why 1) Chinese American distribution system is unique and independent 2) Chinese dominant world logistics 3) If you have money they will do the job, in African and other war zone the only food delivery is Chinese, when he delivers lunch both sides stop the battle. So you can rest assured as long as your money has purchase power.

“Asymmetric Warfare” . Thoughts on the current market setup. 🌳🙏 open.substack.com/pub/shrubbery/…

On Monday we connected Monica Reza to General McCasland. Over 25,000 of you read it. Then you started sending us names. Carl Grillmair. Caltech astronomer. Shot on his porch. His killer's charges were dismissed 11 days before. Nuno Loureiro. MIT fusion scientist. Shot at his home. His killer planned it for three years. Jacob Prichard. Jaymee Prichard. 1st Lt. Jaime Gustitus. All three worked at Wright-Patterson. All three dead in one night. AFOSI investigating. No motive. Melissa Casias. Los Alamos National Lab. Badged into a nuclear weapons facility, wiped her government phone, walked into the wilderness. Four days after Reza. Nine names. One institution. Nine months. Our full OSINT investigation is live. Every name sourced. Every connection documented. thesentinelnetwork.substitutestack.com/p/the-long-cou…

@romanhelmetguy The constitution bans export tariffs explicitly

Do it. Apply an export tariff. US oil producers are making an insane amount of money from this war. That extra money should go to the American people. And I don’t want to hear any complaints about the ‘free market.’ Bombing a country already counts as a market intervention.

@FinanceLancelot @shanaka86 Less than that

@shanaka86 We'll see the effects of this in 30 to 60 days when the supply shock physically hits

Two oil markets now exist. The physical one and the financial one. They are pricing two different wars. Oman crude just crossed $154 per barrel. Dubai sits at $130. Brent at $102. WTI at $93. The gap between the Gulf benchmark that reflects physical delivery through the war zone and the American benchmark that reflects paper contracts in Cushing, Oklahoma is $61 per barrel. Sixty-five percent. The widest divergence in the history of crude oil pricing. That gap is the war expressed as a number. Oman and Dubai price crude that loads in the Gulf, transits the strait, and delivers to Asian refineries. Those barrels are scarce, dangerous, uninsured, and physically gated by provincial commanders with radios. WTI prices crude that sits in American storage tanks connected by pipeline to refineries that have never heard a VHF radio hail from Bandar Abbas. The physical barrel is in a war zone. The paper barrel is in Oklahoma. The market is telling you these are no longer the same commodity. While the benchmarks diverge, Israel struck northern Iran for the first time. The war is expanding geographically while Trump tells Israel to stop hitting energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia reserved the right to military action against Iran. The United States is considering deploying thousands of additional troops. The escalation ladder has no ceiling and the de-escalation rhetoric has no floor. The market’s response is schizophrenic and revealing. Oil ETF shorts are surging. IEO short interest hit 2.8 percent, nearly a four-year high, tripled since the start of 2026. USO shorts increased by 3 million shares, up 50 percent in the last month. The financial market is betting that oil prices have peaked. Meanwhile the physical market just printed $154 for Oman crude. The shorts are betting against the paper price while the physical price screams. US stocks dropped more than one percent across major indices with PPI hitting a 13-month high. The producer price index is the inflation measure that arrives at the factory gate before it reaches the consumer. PPI at 13-month highs tells you the Fed’s PCE revision to 2.7 percent is not the ceiling. It is the floor. Retail investors are buying gold at a pace not seen in decades. Over $70 billion has flowed into gold ETFs since Q2 2025, tripling in the last six months. Silver ETFs absorbed $10 billion last year. Institutions are doing the opposite: selling $1 billion in gold and $200 million in silver. The retail investor who cannot access commodity futures or war-risk swaps is buying the oldest store of value on Earth. The institution that can hedge is rotating out. The divergence between retail conviction and institutional positioning is as wide as the Oman-WTI gap. Crypto funds took in $1.06 billion last week. Bitcoin ETFs alone received $793 million. The digital asset class that was bleeding ahead of the Fed hold is now absorbing inflows from investors who see the same thing the gold buyers see: the financial system is being repriced by a physical chokepoint that monetary policy cannot reach. Oman at $154. WTI at $93. Gold at $5,000. Bitcoin absorbing billions. Retail buying what institutions are selling. The physical market and the financial market are diverging at the fastest rate in history. And the farmer in Iowa, who lives in the WTI world but depends on molecules from the Oman world, is planting soybeans because the $61 gap just reached his seed catalogue. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@avionsunantiqu1 Why would we do that this time?

U.S. export bans historically target oil produced within the U.S.. Canadian crude that transits through U.S. pipelines to the Gulf Coast for export is generally classified as "foreign-origin" and remains exportable, provided it is not blended with enough U.S. crude #OOTT

@ValueSeeker_ These numbers are way off

Remember that oil, once adjusted for money supply growth, remains in the lower end of its long-term cycle. From here, the upside potential is commensurate. Indeed, while the 2008 peak would be equal to $400 in today's dollars, the 1980 one would be worth $560. #OOTT $XLE $XOP