GoodHouse
1.1K posts
GoodHouse
@GoodHouseCap
Equities, HY Credit, and Macro. Political orphan. Views are my own, not investment advice.
Se unió Ağustos 2022
412 Siguiendo356 Seguidores
So the US consumes 20+ million bpd of petroleum product which is up, say, $50/barrel = about $1 billion/day paid by those consumers (to producers, some foreign) which is akin to a consumption tax of over 1% of GDP, assuming producers don't immediately spend their extra profits.
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$NFE Wes Edens personally buying $110m Term Loan A from Morgan Stanley ahead of UK restructuring. Price undisclosed 👀
ir.newfortressenergy.com/node/10251/html
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@Marcelo12650938 The have plenty of liquidity for this year but will more than likely burn cash for at least a few more quarters. The debt has been trading up but still distressed. Need company to effectively communicate the improving trends to get bonds higher which would drive stock higher
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$BAK #BRKM5
Bond market seems to think differently….Market said the same thing about CSN
“BofA rebaixa ações da Braskem por preocupações com liquidez”
“ BofA downgrades Braskem stock rating on liquidity concerns”
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@codytrades Re: MoS, NFE had ~$10bn of total invested capital as of 9/30. Let’s say 40% of that was related to Brazil (just a guess). That’s $6bn for the rest. 14 - 6pts of common is 8, 25% of new pref. That plus debt and other pref and you’re paying $1.8bn for $6bn of TIC, 30c on the $
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@GoodHouseCap I pulled the trigger. Looks even better now with 6.5s at ~14, but I have a tingling feeling that the margin of safety won't be in the room with us a year from now. Wes PTSD maybe.
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Long $NFE legacy bonds (6.5s of 26 and 8.75s of 29). At 18, you’re buying the New NFE preferred at around 50c on the $ and get common for free. Company will be motivated to pay down ASAP post-restructuring. So in three years you get double your money, or convert to more common
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GoodHouse retuiteado
Polyethylene and naphtha prices have gone vertical since the start of the war
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
NEW ODD LOTS: A must-listen: War is breaking the petrochemicals supply chain and it's set to get even worse. @tracyalloway and I naphtha, ethane, surging polyethylene prices and more with Philip Geurts, chemicals and oil analyst at BloombergNEF. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
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@SpecialSitsNews Source? Believe you just curious where that’s being reported.
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Chinese plastics production down hard, pvc and ethylene
Overall Chinese ethylene output estimated down 12–18% regionally
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@dandolfa Causation runs from states desiring to export buying fx of the targeted state which results in a trade surplus funded by the importers public+private deficit spending, all satisfying accounting identities.
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Am surprised at the strength of this assertion. It seems plausible to me that reserve currency status at least contributes to persistent current account deficits. Would love to hear the counter argument.
Gita Gopinath@GitaGopinath
The view that the dollar’s reserve currency status is responsible for its deficits is a terribly flawed view.
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@fed_speak Given how miserable that guy seems all the time, incredible contra indicator in that tweet
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@Jabarumba They would need to raise another $2.5bn of debt to take out the pref, or an additional 6 turns of leverage. Doubt the credit markets would be willing to do that given the history here. If the pref is still trading at 30 post-restructuring, the company will surely buy them back
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@GoodHouseCap Sounds like a candidate for a hostile bid, or Wes Edens taking it private for $3, or ~$1 billion.
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Another way to think about this: $NFE current market cap equates to roughly 6pts for the bonds. At 17, (current price), back out 6pts of common and you’re paying 11 for 35pts of new convertible preferred, 31c on the $. And you’re creating the company at 4.1x go-forward EBITDA
GoodHouse@GoodHouseCap
Long $NFE legacy bonds (6.5s of 26 and 8.75s of 29). At 18, you’re buying the New NFE preferred at around 50c on the $ and get common for free. Company will be motivated to pay down ASAP post-restructuring. So in three years you get double your money, or convert to more common
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@RudyHavenstein @EpsilonTheory Right? Unless you worship Dear Leader, you are a Communist.
Pot calling the kettle black.
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@EpsilonTheory Anything other than 1000% blind allegiance to Trump makes you a libtard TDS communist.
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@yenoms Not sure but plan seems pretty baked at this point?
I was worried that the legacy notes would get crammed down hard in the UKRP. But this is a very favorable outcome for them imo. Had thought Brazil was the crown jewel until I saw the projections and PF cap structure
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@GoodHouseCap Also, who are the lead managers on this? I read silverpoint is involved via Gemini but didn’t verify myself.
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@yenoms I also think the quality of the assets here are very, very good. Say what you want about Edens, but imo he is a visionary and designed this company to be vertically integrated and difficult if not impossible to replace. LT take or pay contracts. Exclusive access to terminals, etc
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