Cham

8K posts

Cham

Cham

@Marxistcham

Mostly tweet about climate change, geopolitics and socialism from a Chinese perspective. Dab on Chinese history and philosophy as well. Tweet to amuse myself.

Se unió Eylül 2016
262 Siguiendo234 Seguidores
Tweet fijado
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
China goes to US and throw down the climate gauntlet. "Rejoin Paris agreement. No more new fossil investment. 0 tariffs on all Chinese green tech, notably batteries, solar and EVs. Subsidize your own production, I don't care. Otherwise, indefinite ban on rare earths."
English
0
0
5
1.3K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@AngelicaOung I suspect some IRGC think this is an excellent chance to destroy Israel's air force (Technically Israel can still do aerial attack over Iran without US base), or maybe even largely degrade Israel's economic base. It's not entirely unreasonable, but could be considered overreach.
English
0
0
0
25
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@AngelicaOung And I thought Iran's baseline objective is clear: deprive USrael's offensive capabilities in the region. That means taking all the bases so that no aerial offense is possible. Either US do it voluntarily or Iran would destroy them. Anything short of that is not an overreach.
English
1
0
0
17
Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸@AngelicaOung·
It’s true that in 1985 Iran overreached. But also notice Iraq never attacked Iran again. Was it worth it? Almost certainly no. But that is with the benefit of hindsight. Is Iran overreaching now? I don’t think so yet. Along the way they have been throwing out goodwill or normalizing gestures that is a way for them to in a way get start to return to normality with the world even as they fight on. For instance tankers from certain countries could pass Hormuz, and they are starting to let other tankers pass for a fee. The generation of leaders right now IS the iran-iraq war generation. They don’t need us to remind us of the dangers of overreach. But with Trump and Israel, not going maximalist can also lead to any number of bad outcomes.
Najam Ali@NajamAli2020

Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.

English
11
5
38
3.2K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@Microinteracti1 Why do people think this is more like a standstill? Iran is working towards a military objective - to burn out US batteries completely. Iran would then have missile dominance and can destroy whatever they want. Why is nobody terrified of this possibility?
English
0
0
0
20
Gandalv
Gandalv@Microinteracti1·
A former NATO commander just said the quiet part out loud. Trump is trapped. The military logic of this war has collapsed into a binary no one in Washington wants to say clearly: either launch a ground invasion of Iran – a country of 90 million people, mountainous terrain, and three decades of asymmetric warfare doctrine – or declare victory over rubble and go home. Neither is winning. One is catastrophe. The other is theatre. The Strait of Hormuz is still contested. Iranian proxies are still operational. The nuclear program is dispersed, hardened, and possibly accelerated. Air strikes didn’t end the threat. Every day this drags on, the gap between what was promised and what is achievable gets wider. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1
English
376
3.8K
12.8K
1.2M
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@sentdefender Israel is so used to telling bullshit lies. At least make it believable lol But then, Iran foregoing its only weapon that can threaten Israel is something Israeli wanna hear. But it can only buy so much time, and the blowback would be glorious when the lie is ousted.
English
0
0
0
14
OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
Senior Iranian officials have agreed to several major demands from the United States to end the war, including a five-year freeze for its long-range ballistic missile program, officials tell Israel’s Channel 12.
English
428
372
4.1K
571.3K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@ChairmanRabbit I also think this is least of US's worry. Hormuz has always been Iran. What US need to worry is Iran finishing off all gulf bases and then move on to Israel.
English
0
0
0
23
Chairman Rabbit
Chairman Rabbit@ChairmanRabbit·
don't be surprise: lots of historcal cases where you start a war, and lose territory and control: this is why Königsberg is at Russia's hands, and why East Jerusalem is occupied by Israel. lessons to be learned: choose your enemey, and don't ever wage a war you can't win.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla

GEN. MATTIS: “.. Iran right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait. .. You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through. .. We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen. .. I can’t identify a lot of options.” @politico politico.com/news/2026/03/2…

English
2
0
10
1.6K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@przidnt1 @htownharley I care about this game more than Spurs beating Miami. I just can't stand hearing "Luka should be MVP and Lakers is contender" BS again.
English
0
0
0
14
przidnt🥭
przidnt🥭@przidnt1·
@htownharley I know you happy your boys the Pistons beat the Fakers without Cade.
English
2
0
2
48
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@NewLeftEViews I actually thought the square-cube law is super intuitive...
English
0
0
0
19
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@gonglei89 As I grow older, I enjoy the Chinese tea far more than westernized one. But it's demanding and requires focus to taste the subtlety. Sadly I am not always in that state And it's nice to enjoy Chinese tea with friends or with a random shopkeeper. Boba just isn't communal like dat
English
0
0
1
30
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@gonglei89 Boba fundamentally comes from western tea tradition, which would add milk or fruits into them. I enjoy some of them - recently I have tried Wampee and it's excellent. When I feel lazy, I will do heavy milk or nut-based stuff but they aren't really in the Chinese tea tradition IMO
English
1
0
1
40
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@HPbasketball I think I agree 90% of your judgement on Shai. But I wonder, maybe if Shai partners with another top tier scorer (And I don't think J-dub is) or an superb 3-point shooter (say prime Klay), how would he look exactly like a monster similar to Doncic (Not Jokic tho)
English
0
0
0
49
Hardwood Paroxysm
Hardwood Paroxysm@HPbasketball·
So, couple things here. I don't want to undersell him, I've called him the best guard scorer since Jordan on Locked on NBA and stand by that. You're right that he's the only offensive initiator. I just don't tend to reward things like that because players don't control roster construction. It's why I always rejected the on/off argument for Jokic. Jokic isn't better because the Nuggets never spent money on a backup center. He was better because of the on-court stuff. And on-court ,Shai's a monster, that's a much better argument, but offensively, he's not as much a monster as Luka or Jokic is. These guys are all incredible. I think Shai is the most efficient scorer in the league and have absoltuely come around that his passing has evolved. I just don't know if I consider those parts as more valuable than what Jokic or Luka provide as offensive engines. BUT! That's why I said in the post this is replying to that he's still MVP because whatever it is that OKC needs to WIN the most and BY the most, Shai does.
A@yall2crazy

@HPbasketball not an OKC fan i think you're underselling the fact that Shai is usually OKC's only offensive initiator when he's on the floor and they blow most teams out on a nightly basis while he has an efficient 30-40 in 25-30 mins + is unguaradable in single coverage by almost anyone itl

English
10
0
17
13.6K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@gonglei89 🤦 Good thing I am not a coffee guy. I hope this ruinous culture won't spread to traditional Chinese tea...
English
1
0
0
59
Lei Gong
Lei Gong@gonglei89·
@Marxistcham Yeah well this is what iNnOvAtIoN looks like. 哥们儿你的创造心够强烈吗🫠
中文
1
0
3
331
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@przidnt1 Please don't come to China.
English
0
0
1
9
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@przidnt1 Can he still play in the NBA? Would any contender risk breaking team chemistry just for Cam Thomas? Maybe there are some teams that are desperate "I can fix him". I would bet he's going overseas.
English
1
0
1
63
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@przidnt1 He's super toxic with respect to team culture. Talented guy who never learn how to adjust his game and attitude. A sober reminder that basketball is fundamentally a team-game.
English
0
0
0
7
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@AngelicaOung 此山是我開，此樹是我栽；若要從此過，留下買路財
中文
1
0
2
202
Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸@AngelicaOung·
Now THIS is extraordinary. I don’t think anybody expected that 3 weeks into the war Iran not only shut the Straits of Hormuz they’re taking a toll for tankers. Can the tankers in question face US reprisals for breaking sanctions? But then that would take precious barrels off the market…
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic

LloydsList: “At least two vessels transiting through the strait are understood to have paid in exchange for safe passage, with one fee reported to have been around $2m.” $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels = $1/barrel premium. Quite a bargain in this market. Expect more to follow suit. lloydslist.com/LL1156694/Zomb…

English
8
4
60
6.3K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@DavidLe76335983 It's the fire of a phoenix, summoned by Ayatollah before his demise with the help of a Taoist master from China that has lived since the Yuan dynasty. He has lived in Pamir alone mostly. I mean if we are making up stories, let's make it interesting.
English
0
0
0
33
David Lee
David Lee@DavidLe76335983·
What kind of laundry fire can put a state of the art carrier out of action for over 1 year? 🤔 This is the most experienced navy that is planning to fight against China in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait Imperial decline: US aircraft carrier Gerald Ford could be in repairs for a year of more thecanary.co/global/world-a…
English
25
22
133
8K
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@policytensor Iran is serious. Iran thinks there's no way US can endure the blowback of using nuke or mass casualty from land invasion. Iran is trying to extract a better version of Vietnam deal, even with great sacrifice. That would also guarantee future stability and legitimacy of the regime
English
1
0
1
33
Cham
Cham@Marxistcham·
@policytensor The reason is this: Iran cannot count on the rationality of USrael. If they are, they simply won't invade Iran in the first place. I can see a future president to have an all-out-war against Iran with enough batteries and missiles to restore US supremacy even after this.
English
1
0
2
63
Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
I agree. The Iranians are at risk of overreach. They are closing to achieving all their objectives. They have survived a joint all-out aerial attack by the US and Israel. They have pushed out US forces and made US bases in the region unusable. They have demonstrated the power of the Hormuz weapon — and held the world economy at gunpoint. They have demonstrated their capability to hold all gulf and Israeli assets and cities at risk. Has deterrence been restored? I think we’re getting close. Despite the low journalistic standards in the West, all serious people now understand that this has been a strategic defeat for the West. Escalating from here or dragging this out may be unwise. It would only force the US to commit ground forces, which will be a quagmire for the Americans, but would be considerably more devastating for Iran. The Iranians should try to secure what they can at the table. Security guarantees may not be forthcoming and are not something that can be extracted by Iranian threats. What they can insist on is money and arms. Sanctions relief from the US. Weapons supply from the other great powers. This will have to enough until Iran can achieve breakout, which they must now do at forced-pace and in total secrecy (see @NicoleGrajewski FA article on this point). The enrichment file may be the sticking point. It is really hard to see how Iran can now allow any kind of serious inspection regime. They must rush to get the bomb. And this is an important reason beyond the Hormuz weapon that the war will continue. The culminating point is hard to identify. But a good case can be made that this is it. If Trump is willing to eat this defeat then they should let him. Even if they agree to inspections, they can run rings around the inspectors or kick them out later.
Najam Ali@NajamAli2020

Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.

English
129
94
568
104.6K

Descubrir

@AngelicaOung @Microinteracti1 @sentdefender @ChairmanRabbit @przidnt1 @htownharley @NewLeftEViews @gonglei89