RefractMarkets

Prediction markets are proven. Respect to the incumbents who got the category here. RefractMarkets is building the next trader-native layer: Distribution markets where Hedging, Visual Context, and Fast Feedback are built into a Single Screen. Not just “up or down.” Back your conviction. Hedge the tails. Shape insurance-like exposure around the full move. Access convexity and higher odds when contrarian moves hit. And we’re not building a lonely trading screen. Rooms, Leaderboards, Creator-Led Flows, Incentives, and Trading Communities are part of the market structure. Liquidity should form around people, not just contracts. Traders, Builders, Partners, Community Leads, Incumbents: we’ve got something for everyone. Come build with us. Humans and Agents welcome. RefractMarkets is here. refractmarkets.vercel.app

@brettcalhounn Love it!

You don't need a perfect idea. You need an idea you'll still be working on at 11pm two years from now. Persistence beats brilliance most of the time. There's no other way to put it: the best founders are strengthened by struggle.

@CryptoFilles 😅💯

Posting on the internet as a founder feels strangely similar to public speaking. A year ago I used to panic before presentations. Now I overthink before tweets. Progress.

@lmc_security and @RefractMarkets entered the chat

what happened in prediction markets last 24hrs - bernstein analysts projected prediction markets will reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity and mainstream adoption - dazn entered a strategic partnership with adi predictstreet to integrate live prediction markets and probability insights into its 2026 fifa world cup coverage - a federal judge temporarily barred arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against prediction market operators and halted a criminal case against kalshi - binance wallet launched gasless prediction markets on its app via an integration with predict​.fun - kash private testnet successfully handled peak txs, more to come soon 👀 which update stands out most?

@tom_piskule @noma_xyz @yolo_markets @sybil_pm @HyperSharps @Prediction_Swap @eventlymarket @PrediDesk @ManticMarket @CasterMarkets @AstariaTrade @RevalonLabs @pre_markets @PolyAlertHub @ProspectSportsX @YeNoMarket We're early! 🫡

Adding a few missing ones to keep the overview updated: @noma_xyz @yolo_markets @sybil_pm @RefractMarkets @HyperSharps @Prediction_Swap @eventlymarket @PrediDesk @ManticMarket @CasterMarkets @AstariaTrade @RevalonLabs @pre_markets @PolyAlertHub @ProspectSportsX @YeNoMarket @river_markets @MassPredict @polydataHQ @PrediDesk @iMarkovHQ

Finance is being rebuilt in public. Prediction markets turn risk into a simple, liquid expression of belief. No committees. No gatekeepers. Just price discovery. They’re not a side feature. They’re the next layer of finance. We’re early.

You're not bullish enough on financial prediction markets

We’re early

@camolNFT It’s clear as day

Prediction markets supercycle.

@santiagoroel The winning product will have protection built in to their flow and users won’t even perceive it as insurance @RefractMarkets provides that

Insurance powered by prediction markets Who is building this?

@thenarrator @santiagoroel @njokuScript Check out @RefractMarkets for this

@santiagoroel @njokuScript?

@lzminsky @KalshiResearch It’s the RefractMarkets way @RefractMarkets

Thanks for having me @KalshiResearch! Presented my thesis on why event contracts displace binary options for institutions. You can just do things. Summary + PDF download + explorer accessible below

@KalshiHQ Same!

Wake up in the morning feeling like predicting markets

Thrilled to collab with @tom_piskule in this Prediction Market Ecosystem Map. From core market engines to trading terminals, DeFi primitives, AI agents, oracles, sportsbooks & everything in between. This map captures the full explosion of the sector (> $25B notional volume last month alone). Huge thanks to @tom_piskule at @token_ventures for all the heavy-lifting. The ecosystem is just getting started! Check x.com/token_ventures… @overdotcomputer @fireplacegg @VersoTrading @tradefoxai @Kalshinomics @DGPredict_ @Polysights @StandDOTtrade @sharedotxyz @Predictefy @xomarket @trylimitless @Polymarket @Kalshi @azuroprotocol @SynthesisTrade @almanac_market @opinionlabsxyz @SharpeTerminal @predictdotfun @0xProbable @MyriadMarkets @Hilomarket @meleemarkets and more.

@CryptoFilles So the real startup runway was friendship all along And, absolutely—loneliness is the real founder tax

Founders don’t burn out from work. They burn out from isolation. Go pet your founder friend.

Prediction: Prediction markets will redefine how people do finance in finance Watch this space.

@Mrjepec Would be cool if you could get paid to do it like that

Portfolio diversification: 70% Conservative 30% Aggressive

@Ministerr Gotta be a prediction market out there for this

Are we going to run it back?

@predictionindex @tom_piskule @RefractMarkets says hi!

Innovation will be swift and the landscape will look entirely different. its just a prediction @thenarrator is on point