Everyone's Chacha

@MaliniP well done ma'am. As a fellow Agusta patrakar I am proud of you. @Outlookindia

@Warrior_Mukul @YashMor5 If any one thinks that they aren't paid well enough for guarding the country 24×7 as you say well then you have an option. Quit and do something else. Soldiering in India is a voluntary profession. Nobody forced you to join.

@Warrior_Mukul @YashMor5 Trying to squeeze more of the precious funds when many of our citizens cant hv two square meal a day is i think irresponsible behaviour.

Excellent analysis, every point clarified with logical reasoning. Grant of NFU is a must for the forces where the bulk of the officers' don't make it to selection grade due to a very steep organisation pyramid. @Warrior_Mukul and a few like him have been waging a passionate battle in the courts.

@Antardrshti @pbhushan1 I dont understand this concept of vote against SIR. Those whose name are in the roll why should SIR matter to them. They will vote on other issues. Those whose name are not there due to SIR they cant vote so their anger does not make a difference.

@pbhushan1 Good You come up with delusional takes like these and when it goes wrong, which it obviously should, you people start crying rivers on EVM

Many people are wondering what the bumper voting in West Bengal means? BJP claims this is an anti incumbency vote against the TMC. Some people in TMC are saying that it is not a bumper vote, because 10% names were struck off the voters list. My take: It is bumper voting despite voters list being reduced. But it is not an anti-Incumbancy vote, but rather a vote against the SIR, which process has harassed people enormously. This will go against the BJP and will reduce BJP strength in the assembly.

@MickyGupta84 If BJP wins it may be a close victory as they hv to do it without the support of 30% muslims. That was not the case in the past. Whichever party won had the support of muslims too.

Everyone thinks this is a close election in #Bengal I may be wrong but I’ll stick my neck out and say this, it will be a big swing, either way. Not a close result. And if it’s not a swing, then incumbent has the advantage. Political shifts in Bengal don’t happen in an incremental manner. When a government is voted out in West Bengal, it’s is clear, decisive and big mandate. #BengalElections2026

@Warrior_Mukul @YashMor5 My being anonymous has got nothing to do with some veterans and serving officers trying to emotionally blackmail the govt into conceding more and more and no i won't step aside. Its my tax money that finances your indulgence.

@SnoopingChacha @YashMor5 An anonymous handle, who doesn't know about "O" of OROP and "N" of NFU, is commenting. If you have some substance in your, come out in the open and then debate. Otherwise, please get aside.....

@addheeraj The very fact that he is forced to admit that BJP is doing better than 2021 means that BJP is going to end up with close to 100 or even 100+ in phase 1.

Basic fact check:90% of M voters in this phase was concentrated in 39 seats, where they are a virtual majority. So it doesnt matter if 97%M came out, or 80%M, BJP was never winning this seats. This shows that rest of the arguments are also random BS in line with his leanings

@partha2019LS If a TMC supporter is forced to admit that BJP is doing better than 2021 then it is guranteed that BJP is getting 100+ in phase 1.

1st Phase Bengal : My Understanding and observation : AITC - 80 -86 BJP - 66- 72 Others - 0 In the 1st Phase average Muslim voters were 27-29% Non Muslim voters were 72-74% If 100 Muslim voters are there in the voter list then 95-97% came to vote [ Note : In Assam, Bengali Speaking Muslim also voted in the same manner] If 100 Non Muslim voters are there in the voter list 90-92% came to vote. AITC got around 80-85% of the Muslim votes (much higher than in 2021 Assembly and 2024 Parliament election) People feel harassed by SIR process. People felt that if they dont vote this time, their existence will be in crisis. Their name will be removed from the voter list. Their Bank account will be freezed and so on. They came by spending amount from their pocket to vote. Exactly how these non muslim migrant workers voted is a question mark. AITC is definitely facing an anti incumbency among middle class (similar like 2024 LS election) but there is no positive votes for BJP. [Note : In 2019 LS, Balakot impact was clearly there - a positive vote for Modi ji. Also the emotion for Modi ji is drying up]. BJP is solely dependent on anti incumbency vote, no other factor is helping. AITC introduced Laxmi Bhandar in 2021 Feb. That is creating a resistance for TMC which was missing in 2019 LS election. The political and social situation at Bangladesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha and Bihar (Neighbouring country and State) is not helping BJP to fuel more polarization The ground organization is missing for BJP. There is less religious polarization as comapred to 2019 LS election.

@Ra_Bies @theskindoctor13 His childhood crush is Rajdeep Sardesai.

@theskindoctor13 Why dreading on your childhood crush joining BJP

If BJP wins Bengal, they will most likely try to break TMC’s Rajya Sabha MPs too in their attempt to reach a two-thirds majority in the House. I’m dreading the possibility of Sagarika Ghose joining the BJP.

@maryashakil All correct except AAP was not created to fight BJP. It was created in response to the humongous corruption of the party in power at that time the congress

It began as a movement. Anna Hazare’s stage, candlelight marches, the promise of a politics that was different. Arvind Kejriwal built AAP on the idea that honest people could change a corrupt system. Today, 7 of his own Rajya Sabha MPs including Raghav Chadha, the party’s youngest and most prominent face in the Upper House merged with the very party AAP was created to fight. Swati Maliwal, once Kejriwal’s appointee as Delhi Women’s Commission chief. Sandeep Pathak, the party’s national general secretary. All gone. The movement has become a cautionary tale. And the man who promised “politics of alternatives” is left with almost no one in Parliament’s Upper House to make that case.

@kashyaplove @bhupendrachaube @BJP4India The brother in law of Aatishi Marlena didnt ask this right question when they were in AAP.

@bhupendrachaube @BJP4India That's a right question. But then, notwithstanding these corrupts there - still the party called it Kattar Imandar Party.

At some stage, @BJP4India must ask itself a simple question. How can those who are perceived to be “corrupt “ like some in this picture, end up being welcomed like a hero and that too by none less than the party president ? A trend which started in Assam, West Bengal , Maharashtra now seems to have reached Punjab! From the late Ajit Pawar to Praful patel to Chaggan Bhujbal, to top BJP leaders now who were earlier in other parties in Assam / West Bengal and now Ashok Mittal who was just being raided by agencies !!! Power corrupts , Absolute power corrupts absolutely

@ipsvijrk It may be perfectly legal but it is also blatantly unethical to bring in some one from outside when when cadre officers struggle for promotions.

It is perfectly legal to appoint COs and DIGs on deputation to the CAPFs!

@kaylee_ashlynn For the same reason you europeans came to America.

If India isn’t a hellhole then why’d you all leave to come here?

@SandeepMall Win or lose BJP puts this much of effort in every election.

I don't think this much of effort BJP put to win national election. And if by any chance Didi still wins it will be massive

@_sabanaqvi You never say no to a gift

I wonder why BJP needed a diversion from its fabulous win in Bengal to its poaching of AAP MPs and Raghav Chadha gang ….

@sharmanagendar They merged after declaring themselves as the original party.

No. Constitutionally, merger can't be of a group. Only the original party can merge ! * Case of disqualification before the RS chairperson * & Illegal Merger before the court.

@Antardrshti @RikkyTweets Just remember how congress supporters celebrated 99 seats after being out of power for 10 years. Some would laugh at that. But i would say that is the correct attitude. Learn to enjoy small victories.The bigger one will come if not now then after 5 years.

@Antardrshti @RikkyTweets The problem with bjp supporters is either high ecstacy or gloom and doom nothing in between. Yes not winning will be a setback but not an existential crises. BJP is in power at centre and 22 states. But if TMC loses its an existential crises for them.

🚨 New Prediction for West Bengal 2026 🚨 (And yes, BJP Bhaktas will actually thank me for this if they read the full analysis before checking the numbers at the end.) ✅ What has gone RIGHT for BJP so far 📈 Phase 1 Turnout was EXACTLY in BJP’s sweet spot which I had earlier said this:🔹 93% turnout → Clear BJP sweep. This is precisely the zone where BJP performs strongest in Bengal, especially with higher turnout in Hindu stronger belts and remember this was despite 100% Muslim + Alt-left consolidation behind TMC. 🛡️ EC & Central Forces actually did a decent job this time. For the first time in a long time, Mamata looked visibly nervous, agitated and under pressure. ⚔️ Gundagardi was MUCH lower than previous elections Did violence completely stop? ❌but compared to previous Bengal elections, the atmosphere was far more controlled and voters finally felt there was some protection available. That directly helped BJP’s silent voter turnout. ❓ What STILL remains a BIG question mark 🤐 Do voters REALLY trust BJP will protect them after results? This is still the biggest unknown. Many anti-TMC voters vote only if they believe BJP won’t abandon them after elections and leave them exposed to local retaliation. CRPF presence during voting helps. But the real question in Bengal is always: 👉 “Who protects me AFTER the results?” That silent psychology will decide whether BJP stops around 110… or crosses much higher territory. 👤 BJP still lacks a powerful Bengali counter-face to Mamata Unlike Kejriwal, whose 'honest man' image collapsed after liquor scam + ₹500 crore bungalow controversy, Mamata has largely escaped major personal-image destruction. Also, the lack of substantial visible action against her nephew helped TMC maintain its narrative. Like it or not, among many Bengali voters she still retains: ✔️ “Street fighter” image ✔️ Bengali Asmita appeal ✔️ Welfare-provider perception And BJP still hasn’t found a state leader with equal emotional pull. 🕌 Phase 2 is TMC’s REAL fortress. This is where things get dangerous for BJP. 📊 Phase 2 historical performance: BJP 2019 LS → 2/20 2021 Assembly → 19/142 2024 LS → 2/20 TMC 2019 LS → 18/20 2021 Assembly → 123/142 2024 LS → 18/20 This phase is where: ✔️ Muslim consolidation continues ✔️ Bengali Bhadralok vote leans TMC ✔️ Feminist narrative helps Mamata ✔️ Bengali identity politics dominates And knowing Mamata, she will go ALL OUT here to crush BJP momentum. ⛽ BJP’s own policy misfires hurt them A few things were underestimated: ❌ LPG shortage anger ❌ SIR confusion/deletions fears ❌ Some pro-BJP voters allegedly deleted too ❌ Fear psychosis pushing fence-sitters back to TMC ❌ CAA rollout disappointment among sections of Matua voters These are not massive individually. But together, they chip away at BJP’s edge in tight seats. 👩 The 'special Parliament session' move may have backfired badly. BJP’s desperate push for a special Parliament session just before elections, despite knowing the Women’s Reservation Bill would not realistically materialize immediately looked symbolic and rushed. Mamata countered brilliantly by highlighting: TMC has ~37% women MPs BJP has ~12% and TMC also distributed significantly more tickets to women candidates in Bengal. I am afraid, instead of helping BJP, the move strengthened Mamata’s narrative that BJP was doing tokenism while TMC was already implementing representation on the ground. Big strategic Self goal. 📊 OLD Prediction I had assumed BJP gets 68 seats from Phase 1 and 41 from Phase 2 🔥 REVISED Prediction BJP Phase 1 68 → 84 BJP Phase 2 41 → 30 🧮 Final Revised Projection TMC — 176 BJP — 114 Congress — 4 CPM+ — 0 Others — 0 💡 Final Note for BJP supporters There IS a silver lining. ✔️ BJP is performing noticeably better than 2021 in several regions ✔️ The ecosystem dominance of TMC is no longer absolute ✔️ BJP will win Big starting 2029 elections and form governmen in 2031 if they fail this time But emotionally, it is healthier to keep expectations realistic. Better to expect less and get positively surprised… than spend weeks being delusional about a guaranteed victory, get shocked on 4 May, and cry themselves to sleep. This analysis is not anti-BJP. It is exactly why BJP Bhaktas should thank me later.

@Arun_vish Satta bazaar is just about satta. People taking bets for quick money. They are not election experts.infact nobody is. Not even the so called psephologists who get most of their predictions wrong and once in a while get it right like a broken clock.

Satta bazaar predicted 350 seats for BJP in 2024, just saying.