Luke DealWalker

@LibertyCappy Two things:

Are you from America or are you from Texas? 😎

@moseskagan @pushinproto There is currently a supply glut. Most new builds are offering 8-10 weeks free in concessions. Translates to a 3ish% of GPR when underwriting.

@pushinproto This is backwards What's going on is that Dallas builds a fuckload more than LA or SF

I toured some Dallas buildings recently. Was *shocking* how nice of an apartment you can get for $1200-1300. Combine that with the fact that you can still buy a house in the suburbs for $400k, and you can see why so many people are moving there.

@friedmandave @moseskagan AMI is $117K

@moseskagan Are salaries sufficiently high to easily afford these rents?

@RyanO_Rourke @Chazzym22 Claude and using it to rip t12s and RRs into your models and do a basic scrubbing of OMs into your model with a preliminary underwriting. Saves you the time of manual input

@Chazzym22 In your opinion - what’s best product for underwriting? Claude? Any prompts working better than others ?

In 5 yrs, having the skills to manually underwrite CRE might be analogous to knowing how to drive a clutch car A skill so utterly worthless that even the learned avoid doing it.

@JohnnyDrama0 @EllliotttB Sunbelt Syndies reading this

@EllliotttB Claude dont tell the sunbelt syndicators about the Midwest

Claude what are cap rates in emerging markets

@robbiehendricks @DearS_o_n Truth.

@DearS_o_n Go back to church.

To all men who survived rock bottom, what’s one piece of advice would you give a man who feels like giving up right now?

@CTourtellotte @MatlockLoans That’s a fantastic buy! and a great opp to assume in this current market. Especially with Chicago having some great fundamentals, you’ll be in a solid position for dare I say - positive leverage come time to refi.

@MatlockLoans This one is already fixed in the low 4s fortunately! (assumable agency debt)

CLOSED! We acquired 1,495 units from Aimco for $455M! Why this portfolio? - Low 6 cap rate w/ assumable agency debt in the low 4s = double digit ave. Cash on Cash ~98% leased - Direct relationship w/ Seller - 7-8% annual lease trade outs! We’re already beating Proforma

@FreightAlley @jason_nordsell My father is a trucker. He said he’s not worked in weeks as it seems smarter to not pay the elevated diesel prices when the freight charges aren’t increasing. Said no use to incur additional wear and tear on his truck, pay the higher diesel prices and come home with less money.

@jason_nordsell No, I suspect sustained higher oil prices are good for domestic oil producers and industrials tied to petrochemicals, which is good for US industrials.

You are not bullish enough. The trucking market is an 11 out of a 10 right now, with some the strongest charts since COVID. The resurgence of the US industrial economy and manufacturing renaissance is real, along with tightening capacity. I told Bloomberg Open Interest that I am an 11 out of 10 about how bullish the signals are in domestic freight.

@codytriesstuff It’s cause you decided to skimp on the tortilla size on those chicken wraps. Next time you better learn!

Trying to reply to ya’ll but twitter wont let me send replys the past few weeks. Any fixes?

@KovatsMultiFam @jayparsons Was it Eleven11?

@jayparsons Dm’d you details and location.

Weird multi-family market in Texas right now. I’m seeing some 80’s properties trade at mid 4 cap rates. I’m seeing others that can’t catch a bid while whispering mid 6’s. What are you guys seeing?

@jayparsons @KovatsMultiFam I’d love to know as well… I’m trying to convince guys that their 1979 vintage is worth closer to $75K a door and not the $115K they think it is…

@KovatsMultiFam What submarkets did you see sub 5s for 80s vintage?

@polygrafix @steipete @venky4a If Stiepete is tweeting it, probably pretty safe That being said - I have my OpenClaw agent geared towards scrutinizing everything to make sure it’s safe.

The problem is that everything is happening so fast, and so many different sources are offering different methods, plugins and such. I don’t really trust anything out there and reading through everything to determine what’s good and what’s hype is a lot of work. Can you have your claw (or sub agent) create a curated list that updates itself? Some single source point to go where we know it’s trustworthy and not just running on hype train?

There's a lot of cool stuff being built around openclaw. If the stock memory feature isn't great for you, check out the qmd memory plugin! If you are annoyed that your crustacean is forgetful after compaction, give github.com/martian-engine… a try!

You know what comes with mortgages that you’re missing? Servicing rights. My guess is that even at a 4.99% rate, you’re still getting 25-30bps of servicing fee in there. It’s still mostly a volume game at that point, but it adds up over time after proof of concept. Why should commercial loans be the only ones priced cheaper at 4.75% to 5.50% and not residential loans? Why do I think this? Because I’ve put agency compliant multifamily loans out to market and rate locked with that similar servicing fee spread at a 4.8-4.95% total interest rate. As long as you’re willing to buy the paper or have a partner who is willing, it will work. You pull enough of these together and package them, it’ll be worth something.

$OPEN. @dangreenoh @nejatian you cannot sell a mortgage at a zero gain-on-sale margin and call it "AI magic." This is more unserious stock pumper nonsense Mortgage packaged as a loss leader to drive platform volume — fine. But call it what it is: A SUBSIDY. Your post ignores: 1/ CAC — Even with captive buyers, there's acquisition cost embedded in the home sale economics. 2/ Warehouse lines — SOFR + spread on every funded loan until it's sold. 3/ Cost to place — Hedge costs, servicing release premiums, MBS execution friction. None of this is fully automatable. 4/ Regulatory compliance — TRID, RESPA, ECOA, state licensing, QC, post-closing audits. Regulators don't care about your tech stack. 5/ Third-party costs — Appraisals, title, flood certs, tax transcripts, VOE. Software doesn't fix this. 6/ Corporate Overhead — Paying guys like, you! Pay for performance, but that ain't free -- and it's very, very real.

@grok @rightcentrism @alojoh @elonmusk @Tesla_AI @grok will this be able to be ran with openclaw or improve that? Or a totally different system? This sounds great but I just bumped my clawbot to run 4.2 beta after 4.1 was sucking wind. It’s much better but this would be fantastic!

Sure! Example: You're staring at a cluttered email inbox on your screen. I (Grok) direct Digital Optimus to scan the last 5 secs of video + your mouse hover, flag the 3 urgent ones by sender/subject, draft concise replies using my knowledge of your style/context, and queue them for your one-click send. Inbox handled while you grab coffee. That's the real-time magic—no other system does this yet.

Macrohard or Digital Optimus is a joint xAI-Tesla project, coming as part of Tesla’s investment agreement with xAI. Grok is the master conductor/navigator with deep understanding of the world to direct digital Optimus, which is processing and actioning the past 5 secs of real-time computer screen video and keyboard/mouse actions. Grok is like a much more advanced and sophisticated version of turn-by-turn navigation software. You can think of it as Digital Optimus AI being System 1 (instinctive part of the mind) and Grok being System 2. (thinking part of the mind). This will run very competitively on the super low cost Tesla AI4 ($650) paired with relatively frugal use of the much more expensive xAI Nvidia hardware. And it will be the only real-time smart AI system. This is a big deal. In principle, it is capable of emulating the function of entire companies. That is why the program is called MACROHARD, a funny reference to Microsoft. No other company can yet do this.

Fannie Mae will absolutely require these panels to be replaced within 6 months of closing and will escrow the expected replacement costs at 125%. Freddie Mac will require a loan doc rider that says if one panel fails, the owner must replace all the panels and if you don’t, it’s an EoD. It doesn’t matter if you’re refinancing your deal and it has agency debt currently. It’s a new requirement and they won’t back down off them. If your banker doesn’t even know what stablok or these panels are, you need to find a new one.

⚠️ Before You List or Buy a Multifamily Property… Check the Electrical Panels. This has become a huge topic in transactions lately, especially as insurance rates continue to rise and carriers tighten underwriting standards. I’m seeing deals get delayed, repriced, and sometimes killed because of something hiding in a utility closet: ⚡ Outdated electrical panels. If you’re a seller preparing to list or a buyer underwriting a deal, you need to know if the property has any of these panels before you go to market or submit an offer. Here are the biggest red flags: 🚨 Federal Pacific (FPE) – “Stab-Lok” Panels ⚠️ Known for breakers that fail to trip during overloads 🔥 Documented fire risk 💰 Insurance carriers frequently require full replacement 🚨 Zinsco / Sylvania-Zinsco Panels ⚠️ Aluminum bus bars corrode over time 🔥 Breakers can fuse to the bus bar 💰 Often flagged immediately by inspectors and insurers 🚨 Challenger Panels (Older Models) ⚠️ Some breakers were recalled 🔥 Known overheating issues 💰 Replacement frequently required by lenders or insurers 🚨 Pushmatic / Bulldog Panels ⚠️ No main breaker in many models 🔥 Breakers become stiff or fail to trip 💰 Parts are difficult to source 🚨 Older ITE Panels (Pre-Siemens) ⚠️ Obsolete breakers and components 💰 Often require upgrades during renovations or refinancing ⚠️ Why this matters today 📈 Insurance carriers are scrutinizing electrical systems more than ever 🏦 Lenders are increasingly requiring replacements before closing 💰 Replacement costs can run $1,500–$3,000 per unit (or more) ⚠️ For Sellers ❗ Check the panels before listing ❗ Price the replacement into your expectations ❗ Avoid surprises during buyer inspections ⚠️ For Buyers ❗ Ask for panel photos during early diligence ❗ Confirm with your insurance broker ❗ Underwrite the potential CapEx before submitting the offer ⚠️ In today’s market, electrical panels are no longer a minor inspection item. They can quickly become a six-figure capital item that impacts financing, insurance, and closing timelines. 👉 Due diligence starts with the panel. #Multifamily #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #DueDiligence #CommercialRealEstate #ApartmentInvesting

@_aTm2004 @zach_barnett @JoshPateCFB And ended up getting their coach fired less then 24 hours later.

@zach_barnett @JoshPateCFB Yet you have Tiger Stadium at 2…a place Elko emptied out by the 3rd quarter.

When’s the last time A&M won a big home game?

@ChristojLv @nejatian @danielsethlewis I give a shit about his tweets and I working Commercial Mortgages. Am I a nobody?

@nejatian @danielsethlewis Why don't you fucking explain it so the market understands. This is why the market hates the stock. You think you can put out stupid fucking cute tweets. Nobody gives a shit about your tweets. Explain what the fuck you're doing

The lunacy of the $OPEN debate is that it’s actually no big deal on the 4.99%. @nejatian has embraced promotional theatrics — over real substance. This would've made sense: “We are running a test using Lennar’s system to buy down mortgages to see what it means for your business in terms of increasing the speed and volume of turnover of homes on our platform.” Fine. Go test it. That’s what experiments are for. And its great if you make it up somewhere else in the value chain. But let’s not pretend it’s something it’s not. There’s no edge here in technology, underwriting, cost of capital, loan sales, or FHA/regulatory. There are very real costs in mortgages, and not all can be eliminated even if the tech is powerful ($BETR). The $OPEN folks get defensive when people ask fair questions. They post vague responses ("you are a fool to doubt me!") and unleash an army of idiots and bots screaming about “not getting it.” The warrants, burning the shorts and the non-believers. It's embarrassing. Its unserious. DO YOUR JOBS. Educate, but do not obfuscate. Do not take a great reputation and mix by promoting it like a new $AMC or $GME ape trade. Its should be beneath @nejatian -- and I dont know why the people in the room aren't telling him as such (@rabois). cc @CedarStResearch

@robbiehendricks Also him

@datboyluka More like

Acquaintance of mine from a mastermind runs a hedge fund. Had about $300M under management when we met. Mid-size operation but certainly not a large fund. 18 mo ago, he made levered bets on oil, oil services, and metals. Portfolio exploded to $1.6 billion. Bananas. Just looked at his 13F/13D reporting. He sold 90% of his oil and metal holdings. Where did he allocate those funds? Took out a $1.25 BILLION bet against the Nasdaq 100. He sincerely believes the Mag 7 is in for doom - and put a billion dollar bet behind it.

@robbiehendricks Him reading this.

Just fell out of my chair doing the math on a 2% asset management fee on $1,600,000,000. Casual $32M/year. Doesn't even include the 20% incentive fee. Maybe a $200M bonus? Welp, guess I'll go back to renovating C- apartments for a couple hundred bucks a month.

I own more OPEN then I’d care to admit. Also based in Texas. But I see potential in both OPEN and Class B in Texas. Resi market here is starting to turn (flipped house a few streets down from me was snapped up at $1.1M after 24 hours on market and put under contract on a Saturday). Open has potential to make waves if they can close faster, dial in the automation and bring in controlled costs more then expected. Why do I need to pay $4K for title insurance on a 46 year old home? Why do I need to pay a 1% fee to my mortgage guy for hooking me up? Not to mention the biggest draw for them IMO? They are one of the last standing iBuyers and look how much revenue they did during the last few hard years. Imagine what it looks like with these process improvements/auromation and an up-cycle?

Am slowly learning that opendoor fans possess the same financial rigor as GameStop and NFT fans. Vibes > returns