Theo

4.2K posts

Theo

Theo

@polemicuss

Se unió Mart 2022
677 Siguiendo1.1K Seguidores
Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@RollingHedge full sympathy for you/ your family. I am not born British, but how you describe your life and what you have built, you might as well have described me. To me, Britain was the shining city on the hill. It pains me to see it like this. I have no plans to leave yet, until next GE
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Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️
For the last ~15 years since I left uni, I’ve been a consistent top 1% (at the start) to top 0.1% taxpayer (last few years). I’m not rich, though. We live modestly. We save. We invest. We are sensible. But I work hard. Really hard. Most weekends I’m writing strategic go to market plan, white papers for new products, attending ExCo calls, or sending data to our major stakeholders. I’m also the only real income in our household for the last few years. My wife runs her own small company and they do quite well for their size - they paid our kids school fees for a few years, sure it’s up and down, as any new endeavour tends to be - but she also gets absolutely hosed by Reeves for any success she can manifest. And I’m sick to the back teeth of the way the economy treats risk-takers and entrepreneurial people, and the general way it is configured. It’s all wrong. I’ve absolutely had enough. The social contract is totally and utterly broken. The state is eating the economy; it rewards indolence and kills ambition. I’ve left the country before for work opportunities and better prospects, so I’m not averse to the idea. Though I don’t really in my heart of hearts want to and I suspect this is what the state is betting on more broadly. This time around, I have remained in Britain so far because: it’s our home, our families are here, our friends are here, we bought a big pile in Surrey to put down roots after a lot of travel, our kids are settled in school, and our parents are in their twilight years. It’s not easy to just up roots like it was in the past. But it is inescapable that the country is structurally fucked. In every conceivable way. You can’t build. You can’t keep what you make. There’s very little to zero return on your taxable income and efforts. Long term, the delta between state spending and borrowing and its productivity and wages/tax receipts is moving in an exponential K-shape. The pension system is geared against people like me who put in, and geared towards a critical mass of indolents - both domestic and imported - plus a big proportion of boomers who have never contributed what I have. And in my pond, I’m not even a big fish. 16,500 of us have already voted with our feet. I’m just absolutely done paying for welfare socialism and Islamist scope creep. I see the Greens waiting. Reform is the main alternative to the traditional parties and they’re a total joke. Despite their membership numbers and THE EXCELLENT @RupertLowe10 - I am unconvinced Restore will ever be given a fair hearing by the mainstream media. Their electoral cut-through is likely to suffer as a result. The SDP led by the brilliant Clouston still have no cut-through. It’s collectively all so disappointing. I will continue to support both parties as they are the only patriots left. My friends - many of them - are out already, and many more are about to be. It’s 90% of what we discuss when we meet. Tonight I made a decision. I’m out. Do what is best for your family now. No one you know in your day-to-day life is remotely aware of what’s coming. It will be swift and it will be unforgiving. No one is coming to save you. Good luck. Godspeed. ✌️ (Red pilled for years, radicalised by @trevgoes4th and @db_fink)
Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️@RollingHedge

Family WhatsApp chat entry dropped in like a live grenade… tick tock

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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@thomasmurphy__ The secret of knowledge is in the learning the process. Which is why the only way to know a calculator works is to be able to test them yourself. The other thing here is that on the n-th iteration the slop compounds
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Thomas Murphy
Thomas Murphy@thomasmurphy__·
All of this is meaningless if you are not actively reading and writing the notes, which knowledge management enthusiasts tend not to. Most of the most complex pieces of writing in history were composed with linear notebooks. You can't outsource reading and its metabolisation.
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

LLM Knowledge Bases Something I'm finding very useful recently: using LLMs to build personal knowledge bases for various topics of research interest. In this way, a large fraction of my recent token throughput is going less into manipulating code, and more into manipulating knowledge (stored as markdown and images). The latest LLMs are quite good at it. So: Data ingest: I index source documents (articles, papers, repos, datasets, images, etc.) into a raw/ directory, then I use an LLM to incrementally "compile" a wiki, which is just a collection of .md files in a directory structure. The wiki includes summaries of all the data in raw/, backlinks, and then it categorizes data into concepts, writes articles for them, and links them all. To convert web articles into .md files I like to use the Obsidian Web Clipper extension, and then I also use a hotkey to download all the related images to local so that my LLM can easily reference them. IDE: I use Obsidian as the IDE "frontend" where I can view the raw data, the the compiled wiki, and the derived visualizations. Important to note that the LLM writes and maintains all of the data of the wiki, I rarely touch it directly. I've played with a few Obsidian plugins to render and view data in other ways (e.g. Marp for slides). Q&A: Where things get interesting is that once your wiki is big enough (e.g. mine on some recent research is ~100 articles and ~400K words), you can ask your LLM agent all kinds of complex questions against the wiki, and it will go off, research the answers, etc. I thought I had to reach for fancy RAG, but the LLM has been pretty good about auto-maintaining index files and brief summaries of all the documents and it reads all the important related data fairly easily at this ~small scale. Output: Instead of getting answers in text/terminal, I like to have it render markdown files for me, or slide shows (Marp format), or matplotlib images, all of which I then view again in Obsidian. You can imagine many other visual output formats depending on the query. Often, I end up "filing" the outputs back into the wiki to enhance it for further queries. So my own explorations and queries always "add up" in the knowledge base. Linting: I've run some LLM "health checks" over the wiki to e.g. find inconsistent data, impute missing data (with web searchers), find interesting connections for new article candidates, etc., to incrementally clean up the wiki and enhance its overall data integrity. The LLMs are quite good at suggesting further questions to ask and look into. Extra tools: I find myself developing additional tools to process the data, e.g. I vibe coded a small and naive search engine over the wiki, which I both use directly (in a web ui), but more often I want to hand it off to an LLM via CLI as a tool for larger queries. Further explorations: As the repo grows, the natural desire is to also think about synthetic data generation + finetuning to have your LLM "know" the data in its weights instead of just context windows. TLDR: raw data from a given number of sources is collected, then compiled by an LLM into a .md wiki, then operated on by various CLIs by the LLM to do Q&A and to incrementally enhance the wiki, and all of it viewable in Obsidian. You rarely ever write or edit the wiki manually, it's the domain of the LLM. I think there is room here for an incredible new product instead of a hacky collection of scripts.

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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@RobertJenrick That's the right thin to do. Fuckign clown
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Nigel Farage MP
Nigel Farage MP@Nigel_Farage·
Reform will stand with our pensioners who have paid into the system all their lives.
Nigel Farage MP tweet media
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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
@Hadley I assume that since you posted this you believe AGI will be here in 6-12 months. So, please tell us. What have you done with your personal finances to prepare?
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Hadley Harris
Hadley Harris@Hadley·
I’ve heard from 2 people in the last 2 days that internally Anthropic expects to have AGI in 6-12 months. That’s faster than Dario has stated publicly. Plan your business and personal finances appropriately.
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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@chris_kratovil If you really think this was a casual, unprompted recitation then you do not know Boris Johnson. If you want to know what I mean by that, just read this article about his speech at the International Securitisation Awards in 2006 spectator.com/article/my-bor…
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Christopher Kratovil
Christopher Kratovil@chris_kratovil·
It’s not every day that one gets to listen to a former British Prime Minister recite from memory the opening passages of The Iliad in Ancient Greek, with no notes, in response to a random question from an undergraduate—and all while wearing what appear to be Thomas The Tank Engine socks. But today was one such day. My thanks to my good friend Brad LaMorgese for the opportunity to see the colorful and comic Boris Johnson speak tonight at the University of Dallas.
Christopher Kratovil tweet mediaChristopher Kratovil tweet media
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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@chamath you are such a dumbass
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
The biggest threat to Instagram’s moat is an incredible image model.
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
Market probably punishing $TMDX for making bigger investments this year into R&D, OCS 2.0 trials, logistics, international expansion, etc which will compress margins by 200-300 bps... however these investments will allow $TMDX to build a bigger, better moat and reach their stated goal of 20,000 transplants in 2030 and 30,000 annual transplants in 2032. Market is being short sighted (as usual) and creating a great opportunity for long term shareholders to accumulate more shares. Quick math... $TMDX getting to 20k transplants in 2030 could be approx $1.85B revenues... net income margins could be hovering around 25%.. using a 32 P/E... $TMDX would be approx $400 per share.
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Value Research
Value Research@trade4investor·
$TMDX down hard over the past couple weeks with no real change in fundamentals. Market sees volatility. Strategics should see a platform: device + logistics + recurring revenue. Hard to believe $MDT $JNJ $ABT $BSX aren’t taking a serious look here. What am I missing?
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Lee Roach
Lee Roach@leevalueroach·
What’s the most blown out cheapest tech stock right now?
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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@Brian_Stoffel_ Yes I have read its about half - the kidney is much simpler organ to keep alive vs. Liver and that goes to price
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Brian Stoffel
Brian Stoffel@Brian_Stoffel_·
@polemicuss Do you have any insight into what it would be? I won’t claim to know. That’s the benefit of this platform.
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Brian Stoffel
Brian Stoffel@Brian_Stoffel_·
Let's do some quick $TMDX math 1⃣ Let's assume 20,000 organs by 2030 (LOW end of guidance) 2⃣ Let's assume $100,000 per organ (15% LOWER than today) 3⃣ Let's assume company hits 30% Op Margin target 4⃣ Let's assume CONSERVATIVE 15X Op Profits That still makes it a $9B company by 2030. That's a 16% CAGR from today's prices And with exception of margin assumption, these are all CONSERVATIVE estimates
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Theo@polemicuss·
@NickalobeUltra The company has no earnings - the EPS multiple makes no sense
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Revolut
Revolut@Revolut·
UK. Banking. License.
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Theo
Theo@polemicuss·
@amjadt25 You like to portray Dubai as a safe haven by attacking London. this actually tells you more about London than Dubai. Dubai is in the middle of a desert surrounded by antagonistic medieval and highly armed countries. London will always be London, despite the recent issues
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Amjad Taha أمجد طه
Amjad Taha أمجد طه@amjadt25·
I truly don’t understand why, in the UK, money seems to come before people. The first discussion in Britain today is about charging expats to come home. But let’s be honest.First, most are not coming back.Many are simply travelers who were already scheduled to return.Second, many of the flights are UAE carriers, not British ones. Others are covered by insurance, yet the effort is still being claimed by Starmer. And what have you done with the tax you already collect? You couldn’t even protect the British base in Cyprus when it was attacked by Iran. Meanwhile, your streets are becoming worse by the day stabbings, robberies, and crime everywhere. In your NHS, people die waiting while others receive zero care. Your Parliament seems to represent Hamas in Gaza more than Sheffield and Birmingham. Meanwhile, flights are even bringing people from London back to Dubai, where they live, without charging them a penny. And here is the real difference. The UAE has spent billions protecting everyone in this country, in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and every city, without once asking people to pay. No speeches about the bill. No taxes demanded in the middle of crisis. Because here, human life comes first. Always. That is the difference between a place people simply live in and a place people truly believe in. I love London. Truly. But I don’t like Londonstan, so I’m being honest with you.
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Alexander
Alexander@alexanderrX_·
london thursday evenings are unmatched. no other city comes close. yes it has its downsides but the social scene is something else. give it 10 years and it becomes the sf of europe when companies decide to leave us
Alexander tweet media
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Theo@polemicuss·
@jonrice80 @JaredSleeper yes. every restaurant will vibe code their crm. and then their pos. and their booking system.
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Jon Hook
Jon Hook@jonrice80·
@JaredSleeper Was it "investing" to see those same exact stocks drop 70% on no material sales/earnings revisions?
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Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper@JaredSleeper·
If you've gotten more bullish on SaaS stocks over the last week or so as share prices have increased, rather than less, you aren't an "investor" in the traditional sense at all- you're reasoning from price changes. Which is okay! But definitely worth being self-aware about.
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Theo@polemicuss·
A government of retards
Niall Ferguson@nfergus

Remarkable @spectator piece on Starmer's mishandling of the Iran crisis by @ShippersUnbound. Foreign policy by international law is Operation Epic Fail. Not only has Starmer lost Trump; he has also lost the Gulf states. And he has somehow managed to be out of step with Carney, Merz and Macron -- even Albanese.

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