83 Beals

513 posts

83 Beals

83 Beals

@83beals

Political prediction market research with a focus on identifying consensus mispricing and tail-risk outcomes.

NYC Inscrit le Nisan 2026
8 Abonnements4 Abonnés
83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
@bradlander Are there Israeli students at P.S. 130 because you said Israelis will not be safe. Nice try to pivot after your strategy started to backfire. Some in #NY10 are not fooled. @AIPAC
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Brad Lander
Brad Lander@bradlander·
Maria Nunziata was the beloved principal of P.S. 130 in Windsor Terrace for two decades, leading with conviction & grace, and shaping the school into a beacon of nurturing education.  I proudly led the effort alongside her to redevelop the school's playground through “participatory budgeting,” which I helped bring to NYC. And we took it one step further, working with the Trust for Public Land on a program that enabled P.S 130 first-graders to design the new playground, one of the most joyful spots in the neighborhood.
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Justin Allen
Justin Allen@JAllen_NYC·
I will preface this by saying I am in favor of investing in Israeli companies. But this once again shows Brad Lander to be the bullshit artist say whatever you have to in the moment to get elected asshole we all know him to be.
BadEmpanada 🇧🇦🇿🇦@GoyEmpanada

@bradlander Here's Brad Lander bragging about investing in Israeli arms companies

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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
The @DemSocialists is fracturing. Has @bradlander tarnished the brand by all but calling them deplorable.
Rafael Shimunov 🍉 🕎@rafaelshimunov

Love @DemSocialists. It's not perfect but I respect the hell out of the everyday people who build it. People I've recruited, years later, thank me for helping them find a political home. And I could recruit so many more if some stopped doing petty, personal, childish 💩 like this

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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
@admcrlsn That looks bad for Lander. If he doesn’t max out the Slope he’s not winning.
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Adam Carlson
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn·
1) NY-07 is asleep at the wheel (39% of what early voting was on this day in 2025). Probably not ideal for Team Valdez but still early days. 2) Early voting turnout being highest on the Upper West Side is a good early sign for Lasher, though those voters are always super locked in and there’s a competitive primary between Eli Northrup and Stephanie Ruskay in his Assembly District. 3) Turnout being the highest in plurality Black Central Harlem (in AD where Jordan Wright is facing DSA challenger Conrad Blackburn) is very surprising. Unclear if it’s good for Espaillat or Chevalier given that it’s thought to be a swing area. 4) Writ large this is tracking toward a normal midterm primary turnout environment. Nothing close to 2025. Which almost certainly means an older electorate.
Adam Carlson tweet media
Brigid Bergin@brigidbergin

NEW: Few voters casting early ballots in NYC primaries that will test Mamdani's power A look under the early voting hood from me and Joe Hong. gothamist.com/news/few-voter… via @gothamist

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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
@AlbaneseNYC That markets mispriced. The district has soured on Lander.
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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
Maybe ask her why she hasn’t filed her financial disclosure report with the House clerk as required by law. Title I of the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 (EIGA), as amended (5 U.S.C. §§ 13101-13111), requires Members, Officers, Candidates, and certain Employees of the U.S. House of Representatives (the House) and Legislative Branch Offices to file a Financial Disclosure Report (FD) with the Clerk of the House (the Clerk).
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umichvoter
umichvoter@umichvoter·
Canvassing for Claire Valdez tonight✌️
umichvoter tweet media
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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
@ghostrunnerblog It’s from Manny Ramirez (from Washington Heights) and Pedro Martinez time as well.
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Abdul El-Sayed HQ
Abdul El-Sayed HQ@AbdulElSayedHQ·
New MIRS poll out shows @AbdulElSayed ahead, while Stevens gets a boost with millions in AIPAC-funded ads. EL-SAYED: 42% (+15) STEVENS: 33% (+15) MCMORROW: 6% (-11) Abdul has dropped to a 9 point lead. The $16M in pro-Stevens spending from AIPAC is closing the gap.
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83 Beals
83 Beals@83beals·
Makes you think that @DumpDanGoldman is working for @aipac @bradlander
Farooq Zafar (SF Ali) 📊🅿️Ⓜ️@sfali789

Brad Lander’s a self-proclaimed liberal Zionist who as NYC Comptroller invested $1.5M+ of city pension funds into Elbit Systems (PMC defense contractor, IDF’s primary arms dealer) and refused divestment when called out. Lander opposes BDS and happily takes donations from Zionist outfit J Street (AIPAC Lite). Stop shoving this POS down our throats, while Palestinian parents dig their loved ones out from underneath rubble and scrape their children's remains off cluster munition sites.

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Brad Lander
Brad Lander@bradlander·
Back at 26 Federal Plaza today, where “mega master calendar” hearings continue — a new Trump/DHS strategy to frighten and deport. They’re moving people’s hearings up by 6 months or more, with little notice (and many people are in shelters, where mail may never get to them). Judges have 100+ cases per day. Hearing rooms are way overcrowded. Their insidious goal is to make it more likely that immigrants miss their court date. And data so far shows it’s working: 40% of immigrants scheduled for hearings were absent and can wind up being removed. That's an astonishingly high number of immigrants now at risk of deportation. If you know someone who has a case, please encourage them to visit justice.gov/eoir so they don't miss their hearing.
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@neuroticjewgay @bradlander @AIPAC @harlem_resist @RepEspaillat @BernieSanders @realDonaldTrump @OuchFive