Chill Professor

@BDCal2 @RodDMartin @LindaTraitz @grey4626 Source for the Chinese shutting down textile mills for lack of supply?

And, HT to @grey4626 — Iran is a pawn on the world stage. Trump is threatening 50% tariffs on any country that supplies weapons to Iran. Guess who that would hit? Hint, they also get most of their petroleum through the Hormuz strait. China. They’ve already begun shutting down their textile mills for lack of supply.

My friend Craig Bergman offers a brilliant take: Unless you live under a rock or are intentionally obtuse, let me explain things. There is no cease-fire. The reason there is no cease-fire is Iran no longer has a functioning government. Trump negotiated with one of the larger factions. There are 24 factions Not all of them want peace. Not all of them will even negotiate. So what is Trump doing? It should be completely obvious to anyone who is not intentionally not wanting to understand. He is pitting the factions against each other with competing interests for money and power and safety. And when one of them betrays the other, they will take care of the bad one. If they don’t, then Trump will randomly target them again and blame them all as if they are one government. That will frustrate them greatly, causing them again to turn on each other because there is no longer any single central authority. This is absolutely brilliant, but if you think it’s gonna mean peace, if you think the Strait is really going to be open, and if you think Iran has surrendered and decided to play nice, you are delusional. If you think Trump wants to murder 90 million people you are beneath delusional: you are intentional. So chill out and watch the show: it is a master class. And yes, I’m not predicting it. I am telling you what is happening. This is not a guess. This is not an informed opinion. I am speaking fact. Watch it happen.

@HowardAulsbrook @DemInNameOnly @barbiebrox @RodDMartin If you're into accepting what *is*, Howard, then accept Israel's right to exist in its ancestral homeland in the towns and cities it built. Because that *really* is, and it's not going anywhere.

@DemInNameOnly @barbiebrox @RodDMartin I accept what is. You appear to have trouble accepting it.

@jonfavs Let’s just end Hezbollah

End U.S. aid to Israel

@color_mage @TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench Oh ffs. Ask grok. Threatening genocide simply isn’t a war crime. War is serious. The things that happen in war are horrible. Not pretend horrible. Real horrible. To think that saying scary things rises to the level of an actual crime in war betrays your opulence and comfort.

@ProfChill1 @TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench Much older, and well aware of the history. Trump threatened genocide, like the fool and criminal he is.

We don't know the real terms of the ceasefire. We don't know if it will last. We do know that American forces were not ordered to commit a crime against humanity tonight -- an event that could break the military and trigger a constitutional crisis. I'm relieved, but I'm also furious that he put the innocent people of Iran, our nation, and the world through one of the most senseless, anxious, and dangerous days in recent history. And he might do it again.

@color_mage @TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench Don’t be ridiculous. Words are not crimes, and they certainly aren’t war crimes. Was it a war crime when the Iranian parliament chanted “Death to America?“ How old are you, seven?

@ProfChill1 @TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench Threatening to destroy a civilization is a war crime. Indefensible. Even if he didn’t do it. 🙄

@DouthatNYT Wow, Ross. I admire you, but if you think this has anything to do with domestic political calculations, you're way too deep in the bubble. Trump has agreed to nothing at all. This is not over.

Just a comment on the limits of Suez analogies here. What happened at Suez was that the U.S. issued a veto on British and French action, demonstrating that they could no longer conduct an independent foreign policy under the shadow of the American hegemon. With Iran and Hormuz, the (provisional) veto on Trumpian escalation came above all from domestic political constraints, the likelihood Americans would not endure ground-operation casualties or higher gas prices for the hazy objectives of this war. You can argue back and forth about what that domestic veto means for American empire, but being constrained by internal politics is meaningfully different from having your foreign policy plans vetoed by a new global hegemon.

@mercoglianos @intelFromBrian Sal, I think they might take take your advice and use the pause to figure out an escort and insurance scheme to give to ships transiting the strait. It's been less than 24 hours.

@ProfChill1 @intelFromBrian Maybe, but they are not moving yet.

IF the strait of Hormuz opens and goes back to usual traffic, that will be around an average of 135 ships per day. 135 ships x 14 days= 1890 ships will pass through the strait of Hormuz the next 14 days. If Iran charges $2 million, and they split it with Oman, that is 1.89 billion dollars that Iran will make in the next 14 days. IF it stays open permanently and Iran is able to charge the $2m (and keep the 1m), that is almost $50 billion dollars per year for Iran that they will make yearly due to this war. Plenty of money to spend on the ballistic missile program! (And reconstruction obviously)

@mercoglianos @intelFromBrian But we *will* get the US merchant fleet stuck in the gulf out of there, and there will likely be enough traffic to ease major concerns about fertilizer and other necessary goods. In two weeks Trump will start to annihilate the regime itself.

@intelFromBrian You are not going to see the same level of traffic back into the Strait.

@CitizenSigma @GigaBasedDad I was thinking that, too. I live out here in the sticks and it's kind of wonderful, but rural life is not urban life unless you've also got a boatload of money.

Nice speech and all, but the problem: With all her talk about babies, eggs, and chickens, she wants that with the Chad guy, and not the farmer guy. She chose the higher education, the corporate life, to buy a house by herself, etc.. She DIDN'T choose to move to Iowa, attend a small church, and blend into that community. She wants the Insta pic farmhouse, not a real homestead.

Ladies, are you paying attention yet?

@SGhasseminejad It may be that Iranian command, control and communications have been so degraded that this is the only way they can communicate with local IRGC units to get them to stop shooting.

It is not an alleged statement, it is the official statement by the Supreme National Security Council which is superior to foreign minister. Of course, the regime says one thing through SNSC and one thing through its foreign minister.

@SGhasseminejad Lol. You have to be dumber than a bag of hammers to believe that Trump has agreed to pull troops from all bases in the region, or to allow nuclear enrichment. He's probably agreed to remove sanctions, but only after they agree to his other demands.

@johnkonrad They turn their AIS off through the passage. I'll bet every US merchant ship is out of the gulf in two weeks, under escort of the US navy, which Iran would be insane to attack at the moment. When Iran won't budge on negotiations, Trump will open up on them again.

As I hypothesized a few weeks ago. What if the US Navy is in no rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

@joedinardo @NateSilver538 Lord, you people are stupid.

@NateSilver538 Trump, for no reason at all, painted himself into a corner. Complete capitulation, which is what he chose, was the wrong decision. All he had going for him was the “this guy might be crazy” angle, now he’s given that up. No one will ever take the US seriously for the next 2 years

I guess I'll have to blog about this tomorrow, but "LOL, Trump TACO'ed out" is decidedly not the right reaction as compared to "that kind of brinkmanship is really fucking dangerous".

@AnthonyW182 @NateSilver538 lol he didn't "accept" anything at all, except a reopened strait for two weeks in exchange for not committing an all-out strike.

@NateSilver538 He has accepted Irans 10 point plan which includes them.controllling the Strait and sanctions relief. That's about as bad as loss as you can get. His behavious upntonthat point had the hall marks of someone who had lost control and would accept anything Embarrasing

Now this right here is how you silence the vile and corrupt UN. Simply incredible from @JustLuai The looks on all their faces are priceless

@LeeAnnRuth07 @TreyYingst No - he'll get our merchant ships out and some navy boats into the gulf for the next phase.

@TreyYingst Devastating miscalculation by the president.

Ceasefire day 1: Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced. Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am. UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack. Iran, via state media, reports strikes against Lavan Island and the oil infrastructure there.

@66Baller @DavidAFrench Marc Kelly, currently railing against Trump as a monster, spent the first weeks of desert storm flying sorties to blow up power plants and bridges in Iraq. And received the DFC for it. All of this is ridiculous Democrat Party theater to prey on folks with TDS and short memories.

@DavidAFrench Taking out power plants and bridges that serve the military dual-use is NOT a war crime. Several past Presidents (Clinton, Bush, etc) have done the same. Do some research.

@color_mage @TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench Certainly it's defensible. He scared the Regime into opening the strait long enough to get our merchant ships out, and likely US amphibious ships in. If he had done it, maybe it would have been indefensible. But a threat? It was a negotiating tactic, and it worked.

@TheWeathergage @DavidAFrench It’s amazing how you twist his words in your mind to try to justify his clear threat to destroy an entire civilization. There is no justification for what Trump has said. It’s indefensible.

@Sargon_of_Akkad @DanFriedman81 @ianmiles He agreed to get the strait open and not blow them to Mars.

@DanFriedman81 @ianmiles Ok, what is it he agreed to?

How can Trump have agreed to all this? It sounds like total capitulation.

@Sargon_of_Akkad Lol. If you think Trump agreed to anything, I've got a bridge to sell you. Trump got an opportunity to get US merchant ships out of the gulf and US warships in as "protection" for those ships. He calmed the oil prices. when the two weeks are up, he'll go back on attack.