Wall St Action

Buy great companies, hold great companies. Know your risk appetite. End of story.

@Mr_Derivatives Sell in May and go away

$SPY Last 14 Mays: 2013: +2.36% 2014: +2.32% 2015: +1.29% 2016: +1.70% 2017: +1.41% 2018: +2.43% 2019: -6.38% 2020: +4.76% 2021: +0.66% 2022: +0.23% 2023: +0.46% 2024: +5.06% 2025: +6.28% 2026: +0.28% (so far) Just one red...

@JoshTradeOption @BullTheoryio Function of macro timing!!

Here’s a great write up from @BullTheoryio on $SNDK

@JeffMacke I do miss the North Stars name….lets go Wild!!

@WallStAction Colorado is living a lie. North Stars* in 6, only bc they’ll get screwed in a couple games. Nb: I’ve watched 6 NHL games in -25yrs (* “the Wild” is a horrible GD name and Norm Green should be smothered in his sleep)

Who you got @JeffMacke , Mn Wild or Co Avalanche?

How close are we to solar powered electric commercial airline jets? Take the jet fuel price out of the equation! $DAL $AAL $JBLU $LUV $FLYYQ $ALGT $TSLA

Is there ever a world in which the DOJ would allow $GOOGL to buy $UBER? Think about the Waymo synergies…

@JonahLupton Is there ever a world the DOJ would allow $GOOGL to buy $UBER?

Let's talk about $UBER because it's been on my mind alot recently... I'm assuming others are also debating these questions in their spare time 😏 Last weekend I took a Waymo and it was a wonderful experience so it's fair to say I'm a big believer in robotaxis as the future of ridesharing. Right now it feels like Waymo is the leader in robotaxis but they only have ~3,000 cars (ie AVs) on the road doing ~500,000 rides per week. Tesla might be next but they have less than 150 cars (ie cybercabs) on the road doing less than 1,500 rides per week. $UBER currently has 1.5M human drivers (just in the US) but nothing in terms of robotaxis other than partnerships with Waymo and AVride (owned by $NBIS) however both options are very limited... Austin & Atlanta for Waymo... and Dallas for AVride. I do think it's possible that Waymo dumps $UBER in the future and just uses their own app in every market... however I could be wrong and maybe it goes the other way because $UBER does have 200M global customers which is massive distribution for any AV ridesharing service that wants scale. fwiw, $UBER currently does 200-250M rides per week which is 400-500x more than Waymo... however Waymo just raised capital at $126B valuation while $UBER currently trades at $153B valuation. I know some people think Waymo will be the winner but kind of crazy it's already worth 80% of $UBER with just 3,000 cars on the road vs $UBER with 1.5M US drivers and another 4M+ drivers outside the US. Over the past ~12 months $UBER has announced 15+ partnerships with different brands and OEMs including Lucid, Rivian, Nissan, Pony, Zoox, Nuro, Oro, WeRide, Baidu, Wayve, Volkswagon, May Mobility, Momenta, Mercedes and probably a few more that I'm forgetting about. I don't think we need to debate that $UBER already has massive distribution but my question is around these 15+ partnerships. Sure it's lots of constant PR which might sound good but we have very limited details... which of these AV companies has technology that is good enough to compete and scale? Putting tens or hundreds of thousands of AVs on the road in the coming years will be extremely expensive and capital intensive. I'm sure Baidu and Mercedes could handle the upfront capex but I don't know about these other brands. So who is covering the capex? the brand? uber? or do they split it? With the capex in mind, what does the rev share look like for these partnerships? Will it be the same across the board or does every partnership have different economics? For instance, let's say Pony.ai can't afford the upfront capex themselves, do they split it with $UBER? or does $UBER cover 2/3 of the capex but then they own 80% of the rev share? Let's say Baidu and Mercedes can afford the capex themselves and they want to go that route... does that mean $UBER just handles distribution & logistics but only gets to keep 1/3 of the rev share? Obviously I'm just making up numbers and scenarios because we don't have much else to go on. Would you prefer $UBER stay asset light and just collect a 1/3 toll like they do now? or do you want $UBER to leverage up the balance sheet to become asset heavy in order to get a bigger rev share % ? and here comes the monkey wrench in all of this... what if $UBER enables anyone with an AV (similar to what $TSLA might do)... to put their car onto the $UBER network in order to generate some extra income while they're working, sleeping or just not using the car? This would allow $UBER to stay asset light and maybe collect a higher % of the rev share since the car owner might be very happy just collecting 40% of the revenues since it's extra income for them not including the accelerated depreciation. I'd love to know how others are thinking about this... especially $UBER shareholders... what do you think is the right business/economics model going forward? and do you want them in the capex business in order to get a bigger rev share? I am very curious to see how this all plays out in the coming years. NFA. DYOR. **We have a tiny $UBER position at @FirstWaveFund because I think the valuation is attractive when you consider 200M customers with the potential to be the robotaxi leader... but I still have lots of concerns about what their strategy looks like going forward and what % of the ridesharing market they lose to Waymo and Tesla and if the TAM can grow big enough for all three companies to be winners? Best case for $UBER is the TAM keeps growing and even as they lose market share the economics for robotaxis are meaningfullly better than a human focused ridesharing network.

@QualCompounders @Mr_Derivatives Sure did.

@Mr_Derivatives They survived for 33 years. Fuel prices spiking did them in.

I remember back in the day when Spirit Airlines had $19-$29 one way tickets. I was like no way they would survive doing this…

@QualCompounders Congrats Quality!

Just woke up to some amazing news — I genuinely thought it was a typo at first! 359 new followers and 350K impressions overnight. One of my posts actually went viral! 🔥 I’ve been grinding hard on impressions lately (currently at 4.3M) and I can almost taste that 5M goal. Time for the final push! Thank you all so much for the support and encouragement. It really means a lot. 🙌 Hope everyone is having a great weekend!

@A_May_MD Make it make sense!!

$ORKA shows P2a IL23 data that (almost) matched the IL23 knockout study. Stock rallied. $800M raise at almost $6B valuation. Similar story for $SYRE with its *OPEN LABEL* a4b7 data in UC. Both *after* already rallying >100% recently. What exactly did we learn from these readouts that wasn’t fully expected? Seriously, nothing at all. You used to have to take risks to get upside on binaries in biotech. Not in the YTE cabal! Apparently these stocks are somehow perpetually mispriced until they can show us some tiny open label trial that proves their drugs meet bars of the drugs that are already on the market. Oh you’re buying at +300% today becuase a month ago you didn’t know if a4b7 or IL23 worked? Ok, sure 👍🏻

@kevinxu In!!

@JoshTradeOption @ZaStocks Stock market is the only place where people run away when things go on sale!

@ZaStocks That's the true! Well said!

Everyone wants a pause or pullback in an uptrend until they start to get a pause or pullback in an uptrend.

@mathlonning lol

@WallStAction I’m starting to beg J&J to take us out of our misery lol

$TMDX earnings cannot come soon enough; it is always something with this stock. Even when execution is perfect, the market finds a way to punish them.

@StockSavvyShay Hopefully a lot of “we are revising our forward income guidance higher” as well :)

My predictions for tomorrow’s hyperscaler earnings: • $MSFT: “We are power and compute constrained” • $META: “We are power and compute constrained” • $GOOGL: “We are power and compute constrained” • $AMZN: “We are power and compute constrained”

@jablamsky @WisemanCap Come on ole Softie you can do it!!

So $MSFT is going to show Azure acceleration tomorrow and we go back to $500?

@kevinxu lololol

@Mindset4Money_X Soooo true!!

Guy with 2 shares of $HOOD: “Why the fuck is it down 7% after hours?”

@mathlonning One can always ask :)!

Is it too much to ask for $ASTS to announce batch shipment on their May 11th earnings call?

@Mr_Derivatives Somebody get Snoop dog’s advice!

$MSFT currently at $420.69 in pre. I mean, we’re obligated at this price right?!? Earnings tomorrow. I’ll tail Burry and go long for the earnings play. Or sell puts haven’t decided which.